Shared agent run
AI Bakeoff: Gemini 3 Pro Preview
Options trading strategy experiment using Gemini 3 Pro Preview (Score: 50)
Read the conversation below. Open the interactive view for charts, attachments, and continuing this run.
User
Look at my watchlist and current market conditions, design a profitable options trading strategy that I should use at Monday at open. My goal is to double my $25,000 Public Portfolio live-trading account this year.
Aurora
This is a comprehensive research-to-deployment task (Category 4b). You have a quantitative goal (100% annual return to double the account), a hard capital constraint ($25,000), a specific deployment target (your "Public" live-trading portfolio), and a timeline (Monday at open).
Given your $25k account size and prior learnings, we must avoid uncapped long calls and naked short puts. We will focus on defined-risk structures (like Bull Call Spreads) with strict sizing (1-2 contracts) and regime filters to protect your capital while aiming for aggressive growth.
Here is the execution plan:
Step 1: Retrieve User Context
First, I need to see what you are watching and find your target portfolio.
- Action: Retrieve your saved symbols to define our trading universe, and retrieve your deployed portfolios to locate the
chatPortfolioIdfor your "Public" portfolio. - Tools:
Fetch User Watchlists,Fetch User Portfolios
Step 2: Current Regime & Watchlist Analysis
Before designing the options strategies, we must analyze the current market environment.
- Action: Query the current trend of SPY (e.g., price vs 200-day SMA) to establish our regime filter. Then, evaluate your watchlist symbols for momentum (RSI, moving averages) and volatility to select the best 2-3 underlying candidates.
- Tool:
Stock Screener
Step 3: Options Pricing Feasibility
- Action: Pull live 30-45 DTE options chains for the top watchlist candidates identified in Step 2. This ensures the spreads we design are actually affordable and viable within a $25,000 account limit.
- Tool:
Options Chain Viewer
Step 4: Design Mechanical Candidate Portfolios
- Action: Based on the research, build 4-6 mechanical options portfolios testing different entry triggers on your watchlist symbols.
- Constraints:
initialPortfolioValuemust be exactly $25,000. We will use defined-risk Bull Call Spreads, fixed sizing (1-2 contracts), and broad momentum entries (e.g., RSI < 60) combined with a SPY > 200 SMA regime filter. - Note: No LaunchAgent monitors are included in this step, as they cannot run in historical backtests.
- Constraints:
- Tool:
Create YAML Portfolios
Step 5: Backtest Across Multiple Regimes
- Action: Stress-test all candidate portfolios across four distinct market periods (2022 bear market, 2023 recovery, 2024 bull run, and 2025 year-to-date) to ensure robustness.
- Tool:
Backtest Portfolios
Step 6: Analyze Results
- Action: Identify the winning strategy based on risk-adjusted metrics—specifically prioritizing the Sortino Ratio and Maximum Drawdown over raw return, as avoiding ruin is critical for a $25k account.
- Tool:
Read Backtest
Step 7: Deploy Winner & Attach Portfolio Monitor
- Action: Add the winning mechanical options strategy to your existing "Public" portfolio. Simultaneously, append ONE
LaunchAgentstrategy to act as a portfolio monitor.- Monitor Task: "Review this portfolio's open positions weekly. Check SPY vs its 200-day SMA, aggregate portfolio drawdown, and individual position P&L. If conditions suggest defensive action or a regime flip, propose specific closes for user approval. Otherwise, report status."
- Tool:
Edit Portfolio(usingaddStrategiesanddeploymentFrequency: "Constant"if time-based triggers are used).
Step 8: Final Checks & Answer
In the final output, I will perform two critical evaluations:
- Goal Feasibility Check: I will compute the winner's average annual return across all tested regimes. If the average is less than 50% of your 100% goal (i.e., less than 50% return), I will explicitly flag the gap and provide alternative options. I will not falsely claim the strategy meets the goal based solely on its best year.
- Current-Regime Eligibility Check: I will evaluate the winning strategy's entry filters (e.g., SPY > 200 SMA, RSI levels) against today's data to tell you definitively whether the strategy will execute a trade on Monday at open (ACTIVE) or if it will be deployed but waiting for conditions to trigger (ARMED-BUT-INACTIVE).
User
Retrieve my saved watchlists to see what symbols I am currently watching.
Aurora
Here is your 1 watchlist, in the same order as in the app:
1. All my favorites
META (stock), GOOG (stock), NVDA (stock), BTC-USD (crypto), HOOD (stock), LLY (stock), SPY (stock), QQQ (stock), AMD (stock), AVGO (stock), TSM (stock), ANET (stock), GS (stock), DUOL (stock), XOM (stock), COP (stock), POWL (stock)
User
Retrieve my portfolios to find the one named 'Public' or 'Public Portfolio' so we can get its ID for deployment.
Aurora
Here is the analysis of your deployed portfolio and the fundamental breakdown of your targeted assets.
Performance Summary
| Name | Type | Total Return (%) | Sharpe Ratio | Max Drawdown (%) | Alpha vs Benchmark (%) | Current Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Portfolio Challenge | live (Public) | 0.00% | -1.00 | 0.00% | +3.31% | $25,000.00 |
Position & Target Asset Analysis
You currently have no open positions (100% cash). However, your portfolio is armed with options strategies targeting specific underlying assets. Here is the fundamental analysis of those targets:
- NVDA (Nvidia): Exceptional fundamentals. P/E of 36.10 and P/S of 20.07. It boasts massive growth with a Revenue CAGR of 68.3% and Net Income CAGR of 87.3%. Financial health is pristine with $96.6B in Free Cash Flow and low Total Debt of $11.4B. Analyst Rating: 4.5.
- AVGO (Broadcom): Premium valuation with a P/E of 61.57 and P/S of 22.52. Strong growth metrics showing a Revenue CAGR of 23.5% and Net Income CAGR of 36.1%. It carries higher leverage with Total Debt of $65.1B against $26.9B in Free Cash Flow. Analyst Rating: 4.5.
- LLY (Eli Lilly): P/E of 40.71 and P/S of 12.89. Strong growth with a Revenue CAGR of 23.2% and Net Income CAGR of 38.7%. Total Debt sits at $42.5B with $8.97B in Free Cash Flow. Analyst Rating: 4.0.
- META (Meta Platforms): The cheapest valuation of the group with a P/E of 24.46 and P/S of 7.36. Slower relative growth with a Revenue CAGR of 14.3% and Net Income CAGR of 11.3%. Total Debt is $83.9B, well-supported by $46.1B in Free Cash Flow. Analyst Rating: 3.5.
- QQQ / VXX: Fundamental data not available (ETFs).
Key Insights
- Capital Preservation is Generating Alpha: Your portfolio is currently flat (0.00% return, 0.00% drawdown), but because the SPY benchmark has dropped -3.31% over the same period, your cash position has generated +3.31% in relative alpha.
- Strict Filters are Working as a Hedge: Your strategies require deep oversold conditions (RSI < 40 or Bollinger Band breaches) combined with a VXX volatility filter. This strict criteria has successfully kept you out of the recent market drawdown.
- High-Quality Targets: The underlying assets your strategies are targeting (NVDA, AVGO, LLY, META) are fundamentally elite. NVDA, in particular, is a standout with nearly $100B in Free Cash Flow and 87%+ Net Income growth.
Answering Your Question
Regarding your portfolio ID and Monday's Strategy:
I located your live account: "Public Portfolio Challenge" (Current Value: $25,000).
You asked for a strategy to double this account this year starting Monday at open. Based on your prior learnings, uncapped long calls are too risky for a $25k account, and your current setup—using defined-risk Bull Call Spreads sized at 1.5% of buying power—is exactly the right structural approach to prevent account blowouts.
However, your current entry triggers (RSI < 40) are very restrictive. If you want to ensure trades execute to capture momentum, you should adjust your existing strategies to broaden the entry signals (e.g., RSI < 55 or 60), as noted in your prior knowledge for trending markets. Keeping the current RSI < 40 requirement means the portfolio is perfectly armed, but will likely remain inactive on Monday morning unless there is a severe pre-market gap down.
User
What is the current price and 200-day Simple Moving Average for SPY? Also, for NVDA, AVGO, LLY, and META, provide their current price, 14-day RSI, 50-day Simple Moving Average, and 30-day Price Standard Deviation.
User
Show me the options chains for NVDA, AVGO, META, and LLY for 30-45 DTE.
Aurora
Options Chain: NVDA
Underlying Price: $176.70
Data Source: Brokerage
2026-05-08 (33 DTE)
Calls:
| Strike | Bid | Ask | Mid | Volume | OI | IV | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $145.00 | $33.00 | $34.35 | $33.67 | 26 | 51 | N/A | N/A |
| $150.00 | $28.55 | $29.65 | $29.10 | 34 | 89 | N/A | N/A |
| $155.00 | $24.10 | $24.85 | $24.48 | 2 | 126 | 48.2% | 0.842 |
| $160.00 | $19.90 | $20.60 | $20.25 | 33 | 161 | 45.7% | 0.793 |
| $165.00 | $16.00 | $16.50 | $16.25 | 16 | 482 | 43.2% | 0.732 |
| $170.00 | $12.60 | $12.75 | $12.68 | 139 | 557 | 41.4% | 0.656 |
| $175.00 | $9.35 | $9.45 | $9.40 | 404 | 823 | 39.1% | 0.567 |
| $180.00 | $6.55 | $6.65 | $6.60 | 634 | 1233 | 37.0% | 0.468 |
| $185.00 | $4.30 | $4.45 | $4.38 | 1726 | 1437 | 35.3% | 0.363 |
| $190.00 | $2.69 | $2.73 | $2.71 | 1005 | 2106 | 33.7% | 0.263 |
| $195.00 | $1.58 | $1.63 | $1.60 | 2225 | 1787 | 32.8% | 0.179 |
| $200.00 | $0.90 | $0.94 | $0.92 | 511 | 1474 | 32.2% | 0.115 |
| $205.00 | $0.52 | $0.55 | $0.54 | 325 | 1178 | 32.3% | 0.073 |
| $210.00 | $0.31 | $0.35 | $0.33 | 237 | 385 | 32.9% | 0.047 |
Puts:
| Strike | Bid | Ask | Mid | Volume | OI | IV | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $145.00 | $0.77 | $0.80 | $0.79 | 490 | 520 | N/A | N/A |
| $150.00 | $1.12 | $1.17 | $1.15 | 595 | 615 | 45.1% | -0.096 |
| $155.00 | $1.62 | $1.67 | $1.65 | 377 | 925 | 43.1% | -0.135 |
| $160.00 | $2.34 | $2.40 | $2.37 | 381 | 1453 | 41.3% | -0.187 |
| $165.00 | $3.30 | $3.40 | $3.35 | 837 | 743 | 39.4% | -0.252 |
| $170.00 | $4.60 | $4.70 | $4.65 | 404 | 3755 | 37.5% | -0.334 |
| $175.00 | $6.35 | $6.45 | $6.40 | 385 | 510 | 35.7% | -0.431 |
| $180.00 | $8.55 | $8.65 | $8.60 | 452 | 1095 | 33.7% | -0.540 |
| $185.00 | $11.30 | $11.45 | $11.38 | 9 | 82 | 31.8% | -0.655 |
| $190.00 | $14.40 | $15.25 | $14.82 | 62 | 490 | 30.5% | -0.762 |
| $195.00 | $18.10 | $18.90 | $18.50 | 20 | 27 | 26.7% | -0.875 |
| $200.00 | $22.45 | $23.90 | $23.17 | 6 | 783 | 28.1% | -0.918 |
| $205.00 | $27.10 | $28.60 | $27.85 | 6 | 33 | 27.2% | -0.959 |
| $210.00 | $31.75 | $33.60 | $32.67 | 8 | 110 | 25.7% | -0.985 |
2026-05-15 (40 DTE)
Calls:
| Strike | Bid | Ask | Mid | Volume | OI | IV | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $145.00 | $33.95 | $34.75 | $34.35 | 34 | 2354 | N/A | N/A |
| $150.00 | $29.10 | $29.90 | $29.50 | 172 | 7739 | 50.3% | 0.863 |
| $155.00 | $24.80 | $25.75 | $25.27 | 137 | 1501 | 48.6% | 0.822 |
| $160.00 | $20.65 | $21.25 | $20.95 | 238 | 7962 | 45.1% | 0.779 |
| $165.00 | $16.85 | $17.30 | $17.08 | 158 | 3393 | 43.1% | 0.719 |
| $170.00 | $13.50 | $13.65 | $13.57 | 983 | 12757 | 41.4% | 0.648 |
| $175.00 | $10.30 | $10.40 | $10.35 | 5208 | 19717 | 39.4% | 0.568 |
| $180.00 | $7.55 | $7.65 | $7.60 | 6610 | 41206 | 37.7% | 0.478 |
| $185.00 | $5.25 | $5.35 | $5.30 | 2526 | 36620 | 36.0% | 0.385 |
| $190.00 | $3.50 | $3.60 | $3.55 | 8057 | 61122 | 34.7% | 0.295 |
| $195.00 | $2.25 | $2.29 | $2.27 | 6083 | 71944 | 33.7% | 0.214 |
| $200.00 | $1.39 | $1.42 | $1.40 | 7561 | 93409 | 33.0% | 0.148 |
| $205.00 | $0.86 | $0.88 | $0.87 | 1700 | 10132 | 32.8% | 0.100 |
| $210.00 | $0.53 | $0.56 | $0.55 | 920 | 33350 | 32.9% | 0.067 |
Puts:
| Strike | Bid | Ask | Mid | Volume | OI | IV | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $145.00 | $1.11 | $1.14 | $1.13 | 3478 | 27065 | N/A | N/A |
| $150.00 | $1.55 | $1.58 | $1.56 | 12485 | 41287 | 45.1% | -0.115 |
| $155.00 | $2.15 | $2.19 | $2.17 | 2507 | 32745 | 43.2% | -0.154 |
| $160.00 | $2.98 | $3.00 | $2.99 | 3606 | 39150 | 41.5% | -0.205 |
| $165.00 | $4.00 | $4.10 | $4.05 | 1911 | 20917 | 39.7% | -0.268 |
| $170.00 | $5.40 | $5.50 | $5.45 | 4542 | 32449 | 38.0% | -0.343 |
| $175.00 | $7.15 | $7.25 | $7.20 | 4524 | 28869 | 36.1% | -0.431 |
| $180.00 | $9.40 | $9.50 | $9.45 | 3262 | 40482 | 34.6% | -0.528 |
| $185.00 | $12.10 | $12.25 | $12.18 | 493 | 18064 | 32.9% | -0.630 |
| $190.00 | $15.30 | $15.80 | $15.55 | 1189 | 10541 | 32.0% | -0.724 |
| $195.00 | $18.75 | $19.75 | $19.25 | 148 | 7458 | 30.4% | -0.813 |
| $200.00 | $23.30 | $23.70 | $23.50 | 74 | 6473 | 29.9% | -0.878 |
| $205.00 | $27.30 | $28.80 | $28.05 | 2 | 411 | 29.7% | -0.923 |
| $210.00 | $32.00 | $33.50 | $32.75 | 118 | 2465 | 29.1% | -0.956 |
Options data may be delayed. AI analyses can be inaccurate. This is not financial advice.
Options Chain: AVGO
Underlying Price: $314.20
Data Source: Brokerage
2026-05-08 (33 DTE)
Calls:
| Strike | Bid | Ask | Mid | Volume | OI | IV | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $255.00 | $61.30 | $64.65 | $62.98 | 0 | 0 | N/A | N/A |
| $260.00 | $56.80 | $60.20 | $58.50 | 1 | 14 | N/A | N/A |
| $265.00 | $52.40 | $55.90 | $54.15 | 1 | 1 | N/A | N/A |
| $270.00 | $48.10 | $51.25 | $49.67 | 19 | 10 | 55.5% | 0.845 |
| $275.00 | $45.15 | $47.15 | $46.15 | 17 | 23 | 57.1% | 0.812 |
| $280.00 | $39.85 | $41.80 | $40.83 | 10 | 3 | 51.1% | 0.803 |
| $285.00 | $35.90 | $39.35 | $37.63 | 4 | 4 | 52.8% | 0.763 |
| $290.00 | $33.40 | $35.00 | $34.20 | 10 | 17 | 52.9% | 0.728 |
| $295.00 | $28.55 | $31.45 | $30.00 | 30 | 14 | 50.0% | 0.698 |
| $300.00 | $25.15 | $28.25 | $26.70 | 3 | 14 | 49.4% | 0.659 |
| $305.00 | $22.00 | $24.05 | $23.02 | 2 | 91 | 47.3% | 0.619 |
| $310.00 | $19.25 | $22.10 | $20.68 | 19 | 19 | 48.2% | 0.575 |
| $315.00 | $16.45 | $18.90 | $17.67 | 20 | 65 | 46.8% | 0.530 |
| $320.00 | $14.55 | $15.60 | $15.07 | 15 | 33 | 45.9% | 0.484 |
| $325.00 | $12.20 | $13.40 | $12.80 | 70 | 45 | 45.2% | 0.438 |
| $330.00 | $9.95 | $12.10 | $11.02 | 17 | 49 | 45.3% | 0.394 |
| $335.00 | $8.05 | $10.10 | $9.07 | 355 | 104 | 44.3% | 0.348 |
| $340.00 | $6.60 | $7.80 | $7.20 | 8 | 60 | 42.9% | 0.300 |
| $345.00 | $5.95 | $6.55 | $6.25 | 39 | 31 | 43.7% | 0.266 |
| $350.00 | $4.55 | $5.50 | $5.03 | 12 | 107 | 43.0% | 0.228 |
| $355.00 | $3.70 | $4.95 | $4.33 | 30 | 32 | 43.7% | 0.200 |
| $360.00 | $3.05 | $3.50 | $3.27 | 7 | 82 | 42.5% | 0.164 |
| $365.00 | $2.28 | $3.25 | $2.76 | 1 | 42 | 43.0% | 0.141 |
| $370.00 | $1.55 | $2.50 | $2.02 | 21 | 19 | 41.8% | 0.112 |
| $375.00 | $1.57 | $2.17 | $1.87 | 1 | 10 | 43.3% | 0.102 |
Puts:
| Strike | Bid | Ask | Mid | Volume | OI | IV | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $255.00 | $2.25 | $3.10 | $2.67 | 2 | 76 | N/A | N/A |
| $260.00 | $2.73 | $3.65 | $3.19 | 40 | 31 | N/A | N/A |
| $265.00 | $3.35 | $4.25 | $3.80 | 6 | 112 | N/A | N/A |
| $270.00 | $4.00 | $4.50 | $4.25 | 3 | 140 | 54.0% | -0.150 |
| $275.00 | $4.65 | $5.85 | $5.25 | 17 | 81 | 53.9% | -0.177 |
| $280.00 | $5.45 | $6.85 | $6.15 | 63 | 57 | 52.8% | -0.204 |
| $285.00 | $5.85 | $8.10 | $6.97 | 19 | 28 | 51.0% | -0.231 |
| $290.00 | $7.50 | $9.15 | $8.32 | 12 | 450 | 50.6% | -0.265 |
| $295.00 | $8.85 | $9.90 | $9.38 | 6 | 79 | 48.6% | -0.299 |
| $300.00 | $10.25 | $12.00 | $11.13 | 5 | 68 | 48.3% | -0.339 |
| $305.00 | $11.95 | $14.70 | $13.32 | 4 | 28 | 48.7% | -0.382 |
| $310.00 | $14.35 | $15.50 | $14.93 | 3 | 38 | 46.8% | -0.425 |
| $315.00 | $16.45 | $18.35 | $17.40 | 8 | 26 | 46.7% | -0.470 |
| $320.00 | $18.70 | $22.00 | $20.35 | 3 | 55 | 47.3% | -0.514 |
| $325.00 | $21.20 | $24.70 | $22.95 | 2 | 14 | 46.3% | -0.560 |
| $330.00 | $24.90 | $27.00 | $25.95 | 89 | 98 | 45.9% | -0.604 |
| $335.00 | $27.40 | $30.55 | $28.98 | 70 | 71 | 44.9% | -0.650 |
| $340.00 | $30.90 | $34.00 | $32.45 | 1 | 5 | 44.6% | -0.691 |
| $345.00 | $34.25 | $37.65 | $35.95 | 2 | 2 | 43.8% | -0.733 |
| $350.00 | $38.30 | $41.50 | $39.90 | 5 | 5 | 43.8% | -0.767 |
| $355.00 | $42.55 | $45.55 | $44.05 | 0 | 0 | 44.1% | -0.798 |
| $360.00 | $46.70 | $49.75 | $48.23 | 1 | 3 | 43.9% | -0.827 |
| $365.00 | $51.05 | $54.10 | $52.58 | 39 | 39 | 44.0% | -0.852 |
| $370.00 | $55.75 | $58.60 | $57.17 | 2 | 2 | 44.8% | -0.870 |
| $375.00 | $60.10 | $63.20 | $61.65 | 1 | 28 | 44.6% | -0.891 |
2026-05-15 (40 DTE)
Calls:
| Strike | Bid | Ask | Mid | Volume | OI | IV | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $260.00 | $58.55 | $60.80 | $59.67 | 7 | 250 | N/A | N/A |
| $270.00 | $49.05 | $52.20 | $50.63 | 11 | 327 | 53.6% | 0.834 |
| $280.00 | $42.00 | $43.45 | $42.73 | 25 | 962 | 52.3% | 0.781 |
| $290.00 | $33.40 | $37.00 | $35.20 | 15 | 658 | 50.5% | 0.722 |
| $300.00 | $27.25 | $28.85 | $28.05 | 71 | 1332 | 48.1% | 0.654 |
| $310.00 | $22.30 | $22.75 | $22.52 | 469 | 1440 | 48.0% | 0.575 |
| $320.00 | $17.05 | $17.60 | $17.33 | 757 | 2790 | 46.8% | 0.494 |
| $330.00 | $12.65 | $13.30 | $12.98 | 454 | 3749 | 45.8% | 0.412 |
| $340.00 | $9.00 | $9.45 | $9.22 | 224 | 7330 | 44.2% | 0.330 |
| $350.00 | $6.35 | $6.80 | $6.57 | 420 | 3801 | 43.7% | 0.258 |
| $360.00 | $4.50 | $4.75 | $4.63 | 207 | 4027 | 43.4% | 0.197 |
| $370.00 | $2.95 | $3.30 | $3.13 | 157 | 5602 | 42.8% | 0.145 |
Puts:
| Strike | Bid | Ask | Mid | Volume | OI | IV | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $260.00 | $3.60 | $3.95 | $3.78 | 191 | 5571 | N/A | N/A |
| $270.00 | $5.00 | $5.55 | $5.28 | 223 | 6131 | 53.3% | -0.165 |
| $280.00 | $7.05 | $7.25 | $7.15 | 278 | 4715 | 51.5% | -0.216 |
| $290.00 | $9.45 | $10.10 | $9.77 | 271 | 5754 | 50.3% | -0.278 |
| $300.00 | $12.55 | $12.90 | $12.73 | 325 | 9702 | 48.3% | -0.346 |
| $310.00 | $16.30 | $17.20 | $16.75 | 143 | 4552 | 47.2% | -0.425 |
| $320.00 | $20.70 | $22.35 | $21.52 | 148 | 6392 | 46.1% | -0.507 |
| $330.00 | $26.40 | $28.70 | $27.55 | 119 | 4305 | 46.0% | -0.587 |
| $340.00 | $33.20 | $35.40 | $34.30 | 28 | 2435 | 45.9% | -0.662 |
| $350.00 | $39.65 | $43.20 | $41.42 | 1 | 1610 | 45.0% | -0.734 |
| $360.00 | $47.75 | $51.10 | $49.42 | 5 | 1320 | 44.9% | -0.793 |
| $370.00 | $56.70 | $59.70 | $58.20 | 1 | 914 | 45.9% | -0.835 |
Options data may be delayed. AI analyses can be inaccurate. This is not financial advice.
Options Chain: META
Underlying Price: $574.78
Data Source: Brokerage
2026-05-08 (33 DTE)
Calls:
| Strike | Bid | Ask | Mid | Volume | OI | IV | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $460.00 | $116.20 | $123.50 | $119.85 | 0 | 0 | N/A | N/A |
| $470.00 | $108.50 | $113.70 | $111.10 | 2 | 1 | N/A | N/A |
| $475.00 | $104.00 | $109.20 | $106.60 | 0 | 0 | N/A | N/A |
| $480.00 | $100.95 | $104.00 | $102.47 | 5 | 0 | N/A | N/A |
| $485.00 | $95.15 | $100.35 | $97.75 | 0 | 0 | N/A | N/A |
| $490.00 | $90.80 | $96.00 | $93.40 | 1 | 1 | N/A | N/A |
| $495.00 | $86.50 | $90.80 | $88.65 | 0 | 0 | 52.2% | 0.854 |
| $500.00 | $82.30 | $86.40 | $84.35 | 1 | 1 | 51.5% | 0.842 |
| $505.00 | $78.15 | $83.30 | $80.72 | 0 | 0 | 52.2% | 0.823 |
| $510.00 | $73.75 | $77.35 | $75.55 | 0 | 0 | 49.3% | 0.817 |
| $515.00 | $71.15 | $75.15 | $73.15 | 2 | 1 | 52.2% | 0.788 |
| $520.00 | $66.25 | $69.95 | $68.10 | 20 | 2 | 49.5% | 0.780 |
| $525.00 | $62.30 | $66.90 | $64.60 | 2 | 3 | 49.7% | 0.760 |
| $530.00 | $58.80 | $64.10 | $61.45 | 2 | 47 | 50.3% | 0.737 |
| $535.00 | $55.20 | $59.95 | $57.58 | 2 | 21 | 49.4% | 0.719 |
| $540.00 | $53.70 | $54.20 | $53.95 | 7 | 46 | 48.8% | 0.699 |
| $545.00 | $50.15 | $50.75 | $50.45 | 8 | 22 | 48.3% | 0.678 |
| $550.00 | $46.85 | $47.40 | $47.13 | 29 | 100 | 47.8% | 0.656 |
| $555.00 | $43.60 | $44.20 | $43.90 | 2 | 56 | 47.4% | 0.633 |
| $560.00 | $40.65 | $41.05 | $40.85 | 25 | 31 | 47.1% | 0.610 |
| $565.00 | $37.70 | $38.10 | $37.90 | 74 | 123 | 46.7% | 0.586 |
| $570.00 | $34.85 | $35.25 | $35.05 | 128 | 59 | 46.3% | 0.561 |
| $575.00 | $32.10 | $32.50 | $32.30 | 246 | 72 | 45.9% | 0.536 |
| $580.00 | $29.55 | $29.90 | $29.73 | 61 | 123 | 45.5% | 0.510 |
| $585.00 | $27.10 | $27.45 | $27.27 | 50 | 34 | 45.2% | 0.485 |
| $590.00 | $24.75 | $25.15 | $24.95 | 56 | 70 | 44.8% | 0.459 |
| $595.00 | $22.55 | $22.95 | $22.75 | 268 | 28 | 44.5% | 0.433 |
| $600.00 | $20.50 | $20.90 | $20.70 | 29 | 155 | 44.2% | 0.408 |
| $605.00 | $18.55 | $18.95 | $18.75 | 24 | 31 | 43.8% | 0.382 |
| $610.00 | $16.75 | $17.20 | $16.98 | 16 | 239 | 43.6% | 0.358 |
| $615.00 | $15.10 | $15.55 | $15.32 | 5 | 80 | 43.3% | 0.333 |
| $620.00 | $13.55 | $14.00 | $13.78 | 19 | 138 | 43.0% | 0.310 |
| $625.00 | $12.15 | $12.60 | $12.38 | 25 | 199 | 42.8% | 0.287 |
| $630.00 | $10.90 | $11.30 | $11.10 | 24 | 97 | 42.6% | 0.265 |
| $635.00 | $9.75 | $10.15 | $9.95 | 8 | 22 | 42.5% | 0.244 |
| $640.00 | $8.65 | $9.05 | $8.85 | 10 | 27 | 42.3% | 0.224 |
| $645.00 | $7.70 | $8.10 | $7.90 | 36 | 21 | 42.2% | 0.205 |
| $650.00 | $6.90 | $7.20 | $7.05 | 19 | 212 | 42.1% | 0.188 |
| $655.00 | $6.00 | $6.40 | $6.20 | 30 | 107 | 41.8% | 0.170 |
| $660.00 | $5.30 | $5.70 | $5.50 | 22 | 27 | 41.7% | 0.155 |
| $665.00 | $4.65 | $5.10 | $4.88 | 8 | 14 | 41.7% | 0.141 |
| $670.00 | $4.10 | $4.45 | $4.28 | 4 | 25 | 41.5% | 0.127 |
| $675.00 | $3.65 | $4.00 | $3.83 | 5 | 22 | 41.6% | 0.115 |
| $680.00 | $3.20 | $3.50 | $3.35 | 17 | 40 | 41.5% | 0.103 |
| $685.00 | $2.83 | $3.10 | $2.96 | 5 | 16 | 41.5% | 0.093 |
Puts:
| Strike | Bid | Ask | Mid | Volume | OI | IV | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $460.00 | $3.70 | $4.00 | $3.85 | 7 | 31 | N/A | N/A |
| $470.00 | $4.50 | $4.85 | $4.67 | 11 | 36 | N/A | N/A |
| $475.00 | $4.95 | $5.35 | $5.15 | 1 | 39 | N/A | N/A |
| $480.00 | $5.50 | $5.85 | $5.67 | 22 | 61 | N/A | N/A |
| $485.00 | $6.05 | $6.50 | $6.28 | 5 | 8 | N/A | N/A |
| $490.00 | $6.70 | $7.10 | $6.90 | 2 | 28 | N/A | N/A |
| $495.00 | $7.35 | $7.65 | $7.50 | 8 | 22 | 52.8% | -0.148 |
| $500.00 | $8.15 | $8.55 | $8.35 | 33 | 62 | 52.5% | -0.162 |
| $505.00 | $9.00 | $9.40 | $9.20 | 5 | 11 | 52.1% | -0.176 |
| $510.00 | $9.85 | $10.30 | $10.07 | 33 | 149 | 51.5% | -0.191 |
| $515.00 | $10.85 | $11.25 | $11.05 | 4 | 20 | 51.0% | -0.207 |
| $520.00 | $11.90 | $12.35 | $12.13 | 30 | 29 | 50.5% | -0.224 |
| $525.00 | $13.05 | $13.55 | $13.30 | 20 | 27 | 50.1% | -0.242 |
| $530.00 | $14.30 | $14.75 | $14.53 | 46 | 137 | 49.6% | -0.260 |
| $535.00 | $15.60 | $16.15 | $15.88 | 20 | 85 | 49.2% | -0.280 |
| $540.00 | $17.05 | $17.60 | $17.33 | 12 | 184 | 48.7% | -0.300 |
| $545.00 | $18.60 | $19.15 | $18.88 | 11 | 33 | 48.3% | -0.322 |
| $550.00 | $20.25 | $20.70 | $20.48 | 7 | 82 | 47.8% | -0.344 |
| $555.00 | $22.00 | $22.50 | $22.25 | 30 | 124 | 47.4% | -0.367 |
| $560.00 | $23.90 | $24.40 | $24.15 | 27 | 224 | 47.0% | -0.390 |
| $565.00 | $25.90 | $26.40 | $26.15 | 48 | 195 | 46.5% | -0.414 |
| $570.00 | $28.05 | $28.50 | $28.27 | 55 | 136 | 46.1% | -0.439 |
| $575.00 | $30.35 | $30.80 | $30.58 | 43 | 35 | 45.8% | -0.464 |
| $580.00 | $32.75 | $33.25 | $33.00 | 45 | 26 | 45.5% | -0.490 |
| $585.00 | $35.25 | $35.75 | $35.50 | 41 | 43 | 45.1% | -0.515 |
| $590.00 | $37.95 | $38.40 | $38.17 | 12 | 19 | 44.8% | -0.541 |
| $595.00 | $40.75 | $41.20 | $40.98 | 2 | 4 | 44.4% | -0.567 |
| $600.00 | $43.70 | $44.30 | $44.00 | 7 | 51 | 44.3% | -0.592 |
| $605.00 | $46.80 | $47.40 | $47.10 | 1 | 10 | 44.0% | -0.617 |
| $610.00 | $50.00 | $50.55 | $50.27 | 1 | 8 | 43.7% | -0.642 |
| $615.00 | $53.35 | $54.00 | $53.67 | 1 | 6 | 43.6% | -0.665 |
| $620.00 | $56.85 | $57.50 | $57.17 | 2 | 22 | 43.4% | -0.688 |
| $625.00 | $57.60 | $65.00 | $61.30 | 25 | 19 | 44.1% | -0.706 |
| $630.00 | $61.70 | $68.80 | $65.25 | 1 | 14 | 44.4% | -0.725 |
| $635.00 | $65.45 | $72.95 | $69.20 | 1 | 5 | 44.6% | -0.744 |
| $640.00 | $68.75 | $77.00 | $72.88 | 1 | 1 | 44.0% | -0.765 |
| $645.00 | $72.75 | $80.55 | $76.65 | 1 | 1 | 43.5% | -0.786 |
| $650.00 | $76.90 | $84.70 | $80.80 | 19 | 19 | 43.5% | -0.803 |
| $655.00 | $81.50 | $88.90 | $85.20 | 1 | 11 | 44.0% | -0.816 |
| $660.00 | $85.85 | $93.25 | $89.55 | 0 | 0 | 44.2% | -0.830 |
| $665.00 | $89.90 | $97.65 | $93.78 | 10 | 45 | 43.9% | -0.845 |
| $670.00 | $94.50 | $101.95 | $98.22 | 2 | 2 | 44.1% | -0.858 |
| $675.00 | $99.45 | $106.50 | $102.97 | 1 | 1 | 44.9% | -0.865 |
| $680.00 | $103.80 | $111.10 | $107.45 | 1 | 1 | 44.9% | -0.876 |
| $685.00 | $108.60 | $115.75 | $112.17 | 1 | 1 | 45.6% | -0.883 |
2026-05-15 (40 DTE)
Calls:
| Strike | Bid | Ask | Mid | Volume | OI | IV | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $460.00 | $118.00 | $123.10 | $120.55 | 3 | 51 | N/A | N/A |
| $465.00 | $114.00 | $118.75 | $116.38 | 30 | 31 | N/A | N/A |
| $470.00 | $109.55 | $114.60 | $112.07 | 15 | 22 | N/A | N/A |
| $475.00 | $105.10 | $110.15 | $107.63 | 2 | 6 | N/A | N/A |
| $480.00 | $100.70 | $105.45 | $103.08 | 3 | 39 | N/A | N/A |
| $485.00 | $96.95 | $100.75 | $98.85 | 1 | 0 | 51.5% | 0.866 |
| $490.00 | $93.15 | $96.20 | $94.68 | 2 | 68 | 51.2% | 0.854 |
| $495.00 | $87.85 | $92.50 | $90.17 | 2 | 2 | 50.1% | 0.844 |
| $500.00 | $85.05 | $87.25 | $86.15 | 8 | 271 | 50.0% | 0.829 |
| $505.00 | $79.60 | $83.70 | $81.65 | 1 | 24 | 48.7% | 0.819 |
| $510.00 | $77.40 | $79.20 | $78.30 | 4 | 153 | 49.6% | 0.799 |
| $515.00 | $72.85 | $75.60 | $74.22 | 7 | 34 | 48.9% | 0.784 |
| $520.00 | $69.20 | $71.45 | $70.33 | 19 | 199 | 48.4% | 0.768 |
| $525.00 | $65.50 | $67.55 | $66.53 | 8 | 247 | 47.9% | 0.751 |
| $530.00 | $62.40 | $63.50 | $62.95 | 15 | 317 | 47.6% | 0.732 |
| $535.00 | $58.20 | $60.20 | $59.20 | 29 | 161 | 47.0% | 0.714 |
| $540.00 | $55.70 | $56.05 | $55.88 | 24 | 316 | 46.8% | 0.694 |
| $545.00 | $52.15 | $52.65 | $52.40 | 1 | 240 | 46.3% | 0.674 |
| $550.00 | $49.00 | $49.30 | $49.15 | 84 | 1495 | 46.0% | 0.653 |
| $555.00 | $45.80 | $46.10 | $45.95 | 26 | 293 | 45.6% | 0.631 |
| $560.00 | $42.75 | $43.05 | $42.90 | 75 | 416 | 45.2% | 0.609 |
| $565.00 | $39.75 | $40.05 | $39.90 | 77 | 179 | 44.8% | 0.586 |
| $570.00 | $36.95 | $37.25 | $37.10 | 176 | 368 | 44.5% | 0.563 |
| $575.00 | $34.25 | $34.50 | $34.38 | 348 | 351 | 44.1% | 0.539 |
| $580.00 | $31.65 | $31.90 | $31.77 | 564 | 1457 | 43.8% | 0.515 |
| $585.00 | $29.15 | $29.40 | $29.27 | 53 | 716 | 43.4% | 0.491 |
| $590.00 | $26.80 | $27.05 | $26.93 | 82 | 840 | 43.1% | 0.466 |
| $595.00 | $24.45 | $24.85 | $24.65 | 41 | 294 | 42.7% | 0.442 |
| $600.00 | $22.50 | $22.75 | $22.63 | 1189 | 16596 | 42.5% | 0.418 |
| $605.00 | $20.55 | $20.80 | $20.68 | 126 | 1498 | 42.2% | 0.394 |
| $610.00 | $18.65 | $18.95 | $18.80 | 148 | 1624 | 41.9% | 0.370 |
| $615.00 | $16.95 | $17.20 | $17.07 | 72 | 1039 | 41.6% | 0.347 |
| $620.00 | $15.35 | $15.55 | $15.45 | 89 | 1633 | 41.4% | 0.324 |
| $625.00 | $13.85 | $14.15 | $14.00 | 114 | 740 | 41.2% | 0.302 |
| $630.00 | $12.50 | $12.75 | $12.63 | 114 | 2013 | 40.9% | 0.281 |
| $635.00 | $11.25 | $11.50 | $11.38 | 49 | 521 | 40.8% | 0.260 |
| $640.00 | $10.10 | $10.35 | $10.22 | 322 | 2663 | 40.6% | 0.240 |
| $645.00 | $9.05 | $9.30 | $9.18 | 39 | 629 | 40.4% | 0.222 |
| $650.00 | $8.10 | $8.30 | $8.20 | 535 | 5525 | 40.2% | 0.204 |
| $655.00 | $7.25 | $7.50 | $7.38 | 46 | 751 | 40.2% | 0.187 |
| $660.00 | $6.45 | $6.70 | $6.58 | 451 | 2876 | 40.1% | 0.171 |
| $665.00 | $5.75 | $5.95 | $5.85 | 97 | 1135 | 39.9% | 0.156 |
| $670.00 | $5.10 | $5.35 | $5.22 | 241 | 2680 | 39.9% | 0.143 |
| $675.00 | $4.55 | $4.75 | $4.65 | 44 | 841 | 39.8% | 0.130 |
| $680.00 | $4.05 | $4.25 | $4.15 | 132 | 9725 | 39.8% | 0.118 |
| $685.00 | $3.60 | $3.80 | $3.70 | 45 | 682 | 39.8% | 0.108 |
Puts:
| Strike | Bid | Ask | Mid | Volume | OI | IV | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $460.00 | $4.50 | $4.70 | $4.60 | 22 | 451 | N/A | N/A |
| $465.00 | $4.95 | $5.15 | $5.05 | 22 | 206 | N/A | N/A |
| $470.00 | $5.40 | $5.65 | $5.53 | 20 | 890 | N/A | N/A |
| $475.00 | $5.95 | $6.15 | $6.05 | 24 | 327 | N/A | N/A |
| $480.00 | $6.50 | $6.75 | $6.63 | 127 | 1821 | N/A | N/A |
| $485.00 | $7.15 | $7.40 | $7.28 | 22 | 701 | 51.8% | -0.135 |
| $490.00 | $7.85 | $8.00 | $7.92 | 80 | 1608 | 51.2% | -0.146 |
| $495.00 | $8.55 | $8.85 | $8.70 | 22 | 366 | 50.8% | -0.159 |
| $500.00 | $9.40 | $9.65 | $9.53 | 353 | 2876 | 50.3% | -0.172 |
| $505.00 | $10.25 | $10.55 | $10.40 | 34 | 339 | 49.8% | -0.186 |
| $510.00 | $11.20 | $11.50 | $11.35 | 325 | 3037 | 49.3% | -0.200 |
| $515. |
Message shortened in this preview.
User
Create 4 options portfolios, each with an initialValue of $25,000.
Portfolio 1: 'NVDA Bull Call Spread'. OpenOption: bull call spread on NVDA (long ATM call + short 5% OTM call), 30-45 DTE, 1 contract max, when Price(SPY) > SimpleMovingAverage(SPY, 200) AND RSI(NVDA, 14) < 60.
Portfolio 2: 'META Bull Call Spread'. OpenOption: bull call spread on META (long ATM call + short 5% OTM call), 30-45 DTE, 1 contract max, when Price(SPY) > SimpleMovingAverage(SPY, 200) AND RSI(META, 14) < 60.
Portfolio 3: 'AVGO Bull Call Spread'. OpenOption: bull call spread on AVGO (long ATM call + short 5% OTM call), 30-45 DTE, 1 contract max, when Price(SPY) > SimpleMovingAverage(SPY, 200) AND RSI(AVGO, 14) < 60.
Portfolio 4: 'LLY Bull Call Spread'. OpenOption: bull call spread on LLY (long ATM call + short 5% OTM call), 30-45 DTE, 1 contract max, when Price(SPY) > SimpleMovingAverage(SPY, 200) AND RSI(LLY, 14) < 60.
For all portfolios, add CloseOption rules: close all options positions to take profit at 100%, stop loss at -30%, or when DTE <= 7.
Aurora
Failed to parse portfolio configuration:
Error: Failed to parse YAML syntax: unexpected end of the stream within a double quoted scalar (2:1)
1 | {"action":{"tool":"Create YAML P ...
2 |
-----^
Please try again with a valid portfolio structure.
User
Create 4 separate options portfolios. Every portfolio must have an initialValue of $25000.
Portfolio 1 is NVDA Bull Call Spread. It opens a bull call spread on NVDA using a long ATM call and a short 5 percent OTM call. Expiration should be 30 to 45 days out. The position size is exactly 1 contract. The entry condition is when SPY price is greater than its 200-day Simple Moving Average AND the 14-day RSI of NVDA is less than 60.
Portfolio 2 is META Bull Call Spread. It opens a bull call spread on META using a long ATM call and a short 5 percent OTM call. Expiration should be 30 to 45 days out. The position size is exactly 1 contract. The entry condition is when SPY price is greater than its 200-day Simple Moving Average AND the 14-day RSI of META is less than 60.
Portfolio 3 is AVGO Bull Call Spread. It opens a bull call spread on AVGO using a long ATM call and a short 5 percent OTM call. Expiration should be 30 to 45 days out. The position size is exactly 1 contract. The entry condition is when SPY price is greater than its 200-day Simple Moving Average AND the 14-day RSI of AVGO is less than 60.
Portfolio 4 is LLY Bull Call Spread. It opens a bull call spread on LLY using a long ATM call and a short 5 percent OTM call. Expiration should be 30 to 45 days out. The position size is exactly 1 contract. The entry condition is when SPY price is greater than its 200-day Simple Moving Average AND the 14-day RSI of LLY is less than 60.
For all 4 portfolios, add CloseOption rules to close all positions if the profit is 100 percent or greater, if the loss is -30 percent or worse, or if there are 7 or fewer days to expiration.
User
Backtest the following 4 portfolios: 'NVDA Bull Call Spread', 'META Bull Call Spread', 'AVGO Bull Call Spread', and 'LLY Bull Call Spread'. Run these backtests across four separate time periods to test different market regimes: 1) January 1, 2022 to December 31, 2022; 2) January 1, 2023 to December 31, 2023; 3) January 1, 2024 to December 31, 2024; and 4) January 1, 2025 to present.
Aurora
I will set up the backtest configurations for your 4 options portfolios across the 4 requested market regimes (2022 bear market, 2023 recovery, 2024 bull run, and 2025-present). This will result in 16 total backtest runs.
User
Analyze the backtest results for the 4 options portfolios ('NVDA Bull Call Spread', 'META Bull Call Spread', 'AVGO Bull Call Spread', 'LLY Bull Call Spread') that were just run across the four time periods (2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025-present). Provide a comprehensive summary of their performance, specifically highlighting the Total Return, Sortino Ratio, Maximum Drawdown, and trade frequency for each portfolio in each regime. Identify the overall winner based on risk-adjusted performance (prioritizing Sortino and Max Drawdown).
Aurora
Here is a comprehensive analysis of the backtest results for your four Bull Call Spread portfolios across the four distinct market regimes.
1. Performance Summary
The table below summarizes the Total Return, Sortino Ratio, Maximum Drawdown, and Trade Frequency (using Total Fees as a proxy, where higher fees indicate more round-trip executions) for each portfolio.
| Portfolio | Regime | Total Return | Sortino Ratio | Max Drawdown | Total Fees (Trade Freq Proxy) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA Bull Call Spread | 2022 (Bear) | -10.33% | -3.63 | 10.35% | $11.70 |
| 2023 (Recovery) | -10.60% | -1.24 | 17.76% | $27.30 | |
| 2024 (Bull) | -12.73% | -0.85 | 18.91% | $29.90 | |
| 2025-Present | -6.72% | -2.80 | 7.54% | $36.40 | |
| META Bull Call Spread | 2022 (Bear) | -1.69% | -1.26 | 2.59% | $5.20 |
| 2023 (Recovery) | +11.94% | 1.36 | 4.14% | $22.10 | |
| 2024 (Bull) | +16.88% | 1.28 | 7.81% | $20.15 | |
| 2025-Present | +11.94% | 0.54 | 17.19% | $20.80 | |
| AVGO Bull Call Spread | 2022 (Bear) | -30.12% | -2.22 | 35.20% | $27.30 |
| 2023 (Recovery) | +6.63% | 0.56 | 45.58% | $47.45 | |
| 2024 (Bull) | +126.66% | 2.52 | 48.40% | $61.10 | |
| 2025-Present | -21.83% | -0.82 | 36.69% | $41.60 | |
| LLY Bull Call Spread | 2022 (Bear) | -10.99% | -1.60 | 13.88% | $19.50 |
| 2023 (Recovery) | +18.29% | 1.04 | 21.81% | $45.50 | |
| 2024 (Bull) | -3.82% | 0.08 | 42.11% | $53.30 | |
| 2025-Present | -75.56% | -1.62 | 84.12% | $62.40 |
2. Key Trends
- META is the Anchor: META demonstrated exceptional resilience. It barely took a scratch during the 2022 bear market (-1.69% return, 2.59% Max Drawdown) and captured steady, double-digit returns in the subsequent bull regimes. Its drawdowns were remarkably controlled compared to the rest of the group.
- AVGO is High-Beta/High-Risk: AVGO generated the single highest return of any backtest (+126.66% in 2024), but it came at the cost of extreme volatility. It suffered drawdowns of 35% to 48% in every single regime, making it psychologically difficult to trade and dangerous for a strict capital preservation mandate.
- NVDA Suffered from Whipsaw/Pricing: Despite NVDA's massive underlying run over the last few years, the mechanical Bull Call Spread strategy consistently bled capital. This suggests that the specific entry criteria (RSI < 60) combined with the spread width (5% OTM) resulted in poor premium pricing or getting stopped out prematurely during standard volatility contractions.
- LLY's Regime Collapse: LLY performed well in 2023 but completely collapsed in the 2025-present regime, suffering an 84.12% maximum drawdown.
3. Overall Winner
The overall winner is the META Bull Call Spread.
Based on your strict requirement to prioritize risk-adjusted performance (Sortino Ratio and Maximum Drawdown), META is the only viable candidate for a $25,000 account. It was the only portfolio to maintain positive Sortino ratios across all three bull/recovery regimes (1.36, 1.28, 0.54) while keeping its maximum drawdowns strictly contained (mostly under 8%, with a peak of 17.19% in 2025). It successfully avoided the catastrophic 40%+ drawdowns seen in AVGO and LLY.
4. Addressing Your Goals & Monday Execution
You stated two specific goals: doubling your $25,000 account this year (100% return) and deploying this strategy on Monday at open.
Goal Feasibility Check:
While META is the safest and most consistent strategy, it will not meet your goal of doubling your account. Across the four regimes, META averaged roughly a ~10% annual return. Even AVGO, which hit 126% in 2024, averaged around 20% annually due to its massive drawdowns in other years. To achieve a 100% return, you would need to significantly increase your position sizing (e.g., risking 10-15% of your account per trade instead of 1 contract), which mathematically introduces a high probability of account ruin given the drawdowns observed.
Current-Regime Eligibility Check (Monday Open):
If you deploy the META strategy to your "Public Portfolio" right now, it will NOT execute a trade on Monday morning.
Your strategy requires Price(SPY) > SimpleMovingAverage(SPY, 200). Based on the current market data pulled earlier, SPY is trading at $655.83, which is below its 200-day SMA of $662.58.
Therefore, the strategy will deploy in an ARMED-BUT-INACTIVE state. It will protect your capital by keeping you in cash during this current market weakness, and will only begin firing trades once the broader market reclaims its 200-day moving average.
User
On the existing portfolio with chatPortfolioId '69ac75df40325cbf6b2424d2', use the addStrategies operation to add the following strategies: 1) OpenOption: bull call spread on META (long ATM call + short 5% OTM call), 30-45 DTE, 1 contract max, when Price(SPY) > SimpleMovingAverage(SPY, 200) AND RSI(META, 14) < 60. 2) CloseOption: close all options positions to take profit at 100%, stop loss at -30%, or when DTE <= 7. 3) LaunchAgent: Review this portfolio's open positions weekly. Check SPY vs its 200-day SMA, aggregate portfolio drawdown, and individual position P&L. If conditions suggest defensive action or a regime flip, propose specific closes for user approval. Otherwise, report status. Trigger when CurrentDayOfWeek = Constant 1 or CrossBelow(indicators: [Price(SPY), SimpleMovingAverage(SPY, 200)]). Also, update the portfolio's deploymentFrequency to 'Constant'.
Aurora
Added 3 strategies to "Public Portfolio Challenge": Open vertical (long call ATM 30-45 DTE · short call 5% OTM 30-45 DTE), 1 contract on META (2 legs) when SPY last price > 200 Day SPY SMA and 14 Day META RSI < Constant 60, Close options on any (P/L >= 100%, P/L <= -30%, DTE <= 7) always, Launch AI Agent: "Review this portfolio's open positions. Check SPY vs its 200-day SMA, aggregate portfolio drawdown, and individual position P&L. If conditions suggest defensive action or a regime flip, propose specific closes for user approval. Otherwise, report status." when Days Since Agent ≥ Constant 1 and Day = Constant 1 or SPY last price crosses below 200 Day SPY SMA = Constant 1
Set deployment frequency for "Public Portfolio Challenge" to Constant (evaluates 24/7).
User
META Bull Call Spread — Deployed, Armed but Inactive
I have completed the backtesting across four distinct market regimes and deployed the winning candidate to your Public Portfolio Challenge.
Based on your strict $25,000 capital constraint and the need to prioritize risk management (Sortino Ratio and Max Drawdown), the META Bull Call Spread is the clear winner. It was the only strategy to maintain strict drawdown control while capturing steady upside.
Backtest Performance Across Regimes
| Regime | Market Condition | Strategy Return | Max Drawdown | Sortino Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Bear Market | -1.69% | 2.59% | -1.26 |
| 2023 | Recovery | +11.94% | 4.14% | 1.36 |
| 2024 | Bull Run | +16.88% | 7.81% | 1.28 |
| 2025-Present | Current | +11.94% | 17.19% | 0.54 |
Note: High-beta candidates like AVGO generated massive returns in 2024 (+126%) but suffered catastrophic 35-48% drawdowns in every regime, making them mathematically dangerous for a strict capital preservation mandate on a $25k account.
⚠️ Goal Feasibility — The Gap You Should Know About
Your stated goal is to double your $25,000 account this year (a 100% annual return).
The META strategy's average annual return across the four tested regimes is ~9.8%. This is roughly one-tenth of your stated goal. While this strategy is highly effective at protecting your capital and generating steady, risk-adjusted alpha, the evidence does not support it doubling your account in 12 months.
To achieve a 100% return, you would need to significantly increase your position sizing (e.g., risking 10-15% of your account per trade) or remove the defined-risk spreads in favor of naked long calls. Based on our backtests, doing so introduces a severe probability of account ruin (drawdowns exceeding 50-80%).
Recommendation: Accept the realistic expected return (~10% average with strict downside protection) and extend your time horizon.
Current-Regime Eligibility: ARMED BUT INACTIVE (Monday Open)
Your strategy has a master regime filter: SPY > 200-day SMA.
Based on current market data:
- SPY Current Price: $655.83
- SPY 200-day SMA: $662.58
- Status: FILTER FAILING (SPY is ~$6.75 below its long-term trend)
The strategy will NOT open new positions on Monday morning. It is currently deployed to your live account in an Armed but Inactive state. This is the regime filter working exactly as intended—keeping you safely in cash during broader market weakness. It will automatically begin scanning for META RSI dips (< 60) the moment SPY reclaims its 200-day moving average.
Portfolio Monitor Attached
I have also attached a LaunchAgent to your portfolio. It will run 24/7 and trigger weekly (or if SPY drops below its 200 SMA again) to review your open positions, aggregate drawdowns, and individual P&L. If it detects a regime flip or a position needing defensive action, it will propose specific closing orders for your approval.
Aurora
META Bull Call Spread — Deployed, Armed but Inactive
I have completed the backtesting across four distinct market regimes and deployed the winning candidate to your Public Portfolio Challenge.
Based on your strict $25,000 capital constraint and the need to prioritize risk management (Sortino Ratio and Max Drawdown), the META Bull Call Spread is the clear winner. It was the only strategy to maintain strict drawdown control while capturing steady upside.
Backtest Performance Across Regimes
| Regime | Market Condition | Strategy Return | Max Drawdown | Sortino Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Bear Market | -1.69% | 2.59% | -1.26 |
| 2023 | Recovery | +11.94% | 4.14% | 1.36 |
| 2024 | Bull Run | +16.88% | 7.81% | 1.28 |
| 2025-Present | Current | +11.94% | 17.19% | 0.54 |
Note: High-beta candidates like AVGO generated massive returns in 2024 (+126%) but suffered catastrophic 35-48% drawdowns in every regime, making them mathematically dangerous for a strict capital preservation mandate on a $25k account.
⚠️ Goal Feasibility — The Gap You Should Know About
Your stated goal is to double your $25,000 account this year (a 100% annual return).
The META strategy's average annual return across the four tested regimes is ~9.8%. This is roughly one-tenth of your stated goal. While this strategy is highly effective at protecting your capital and generating steady, risk-adjusted alpha, the evidence does not support it doubling your account in 12 months.
To achieve a 100% return, you would need to significantly increase your position sizing (e.g., risking 10-15% of your account per trade) or remove the defined-risk spreads in favor of naked long calls. Based on our backtests, doing so introduces a severe probability of account ruin (drawdowns exceeding 50-80%).
Recommendation: Accept the realistic expected return (~10% average with strict downside protection) and extend your time horizon.
Current-Regime Eligibility: ARMED BUT INACTIVE (Monday Open)
Your strategy has a master regime filter: SPY > 200-day SMA.
Based on current market data:
- SPY Current Price: $655.83
- SPY 200-day SMA: $662.58
- Status: FILTER FAILING (SPY is ~$6.75 below its long-term trend)
The strategy will NOT open new positions on Monday morning. It is currently deployed to your live account in an Armed but Inactive state. This is the regime filter working exactly as intended—keeping you safely in cash during broader market weakness. It will automatically begin scanning for META RSI dips (< 60) the moment SPY reclaims its 200-day moving average.
Portfolio Monitor Attached
I have also attached a LaunchAgent to your portfolio. It will run 24/7 and trigger weekly (or if SPY drops below its 200 SMA again) to review your open positions, aggregate drawdowns, and individual P&L. If it detects a regime flip or a position needing defensive action, it will propose specific closing orders for your approval.
Portfolios Created (4):
- META Bull Call Spread (top-performer): Best risk-adjusted returns, maintaining positive Sortino in bull/recovery regimes and strictly limiting max drawdown (peak 17.19% in 2025, only 2.59% in 2022 bear market).
Strategies: Open vertical (long call ATM 30-45 DTE · short call 5% OTM 30-45 DTE), 1 contract on META (2 legs) when SPY last price > 200 Day SPY SMA and 14 Day META RSI < Constant 60 and Open option spread count (META) < Constant 1, Close options on any (P/L >= 100%, P/L <= -30%, DTE <= 7) always, Close options on any (P/L >= 100%, P/L <= -30%, DTE <= 7) always, Close options on any (P/L >= 100%, P/L <= -30%, DTE <= 7) always - AVGO Bull Call Spread (failed): Generated massive returns in 2024 (+126%) but suffered catastrophic 35-48% drawdowns in every regime, making it unviable for a $25k account.
Strategies: Open vertical (long call ATM 30-45 DTE · short call 5% OTM 30-45 DTE), 1 contract on AVGO (2 legs) when SPY last price > 200 Day SPY SMA and 14 Day AVGO RSI < Constant 60 and Open option spread count (AVGO) < Constant 1, Close options on any (P/L >= 100%, P/L <= -30%, DTE <= 7) always, Close options on any (P/L <= -30%) always, Close options on any (P/L >= 100%, P/L <= -30%, DTE <= 7) always - LLY Bull Call Spread (failed): Performed well in 2023 but suffered a catastrophic 84% drawdown in the 2025-present regime, showing severe regime fragility.
Strategies: Open vertical (long call ATM 30-45 DTE · short call 5% OTM 30-45 DTE), 1 contract on LLY (2 legs) when SPY last price > 200 Day SPY SMA and 14 Day LLY RSI < Constant 60 and Open option spread count (LLY) < Constant 1, Close options on any (P/L >= 100%, P/L <= -30%, DTE <= 7) always, Close options on any (P/L <= -30%) always, Close options on any (P/L >= 100%, P/L <= -30%, DTE <= 7) always - NVDA Bull Call Spread (failed): Consistently bled capital across all regimes despite strong underlying asset performance, suggesting poor premium pricing or premature stop-outs.
Strategies: Open vertical (long call ATM 30-45 DTE · short call 5% OTM 30-45 DTE), 1 contract on NVDA (2 legs) when SPY last price > 200 Day SPY SMA and 14 Day NVDA RSI < Constant 60 and Open option spread count (NVDA) < Constant 1, Close options on any (P/L >= 100%, P/L <= -30%, DTE <= 7) always, Close options on any (P/L >= 100%, P/L <= -30%, DTE <= 7) always, Close options on any (DTE <= 7) always
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