Shared agent run
Nancy Pelosi disclosure portfolio test
A one-sentence NexusTrade run that reads Pelosi disclosures as they became public, creates four $100,000 portfolio interpretations, and backtests them from 2024 through September 2026.
Read the conversation below. Open the interactive view for charts, attachments, and continuing this run.
User
Using only Nancy Pelosi's publicly disclosed trades as they became public, show her recent trades, then create four $100,000 portfolio variants: direct copy, disclosure-magnitude weighted, quality-filtered, and quality plus momentum; backtest each from 2024-01-01 through the latest available date and return shareable drafts.
Aurora
- Stock Screener — Inspect Nancy Pelosi's publicly disclosed congressional trades using only values knowable at each disclosure's
firstAvailableAt/public availability time. Resolve the filer and report her recent qualifying trades, disclosure coverage and freshness, purchase/sale direction, equity versus option activity, disclosed amount ranges, missing tickers, amendments, and any data gaps; do not use transaction dates as a hindsight substitute. - Generate Portfolios — After the completed inspection, create exactly four independent $100,000 shareable chat-portfolio drafts using native point-in-time
PoliticalTradesover a dynamic supported universe rather than freezing today's ticker list: (a) direct-copy disclosure activity, (b) disclosure-magnitude-weighted activity, (c) activity filtered by native quality criteria, and (d) quality plus native momentum. Preserve public-availability timing and clearly label assumptions, sizing, option-disclosure handling, and any unsupported or unrepresentable records. - Backtest Portfolios — Backtest all four portfolio variants in one bulk call from 2024-01-01 through the latest available date, with the same $100,000 starting capital and matched fee/slippage assumptions; use only information available at each historical decision date.
- Read Backtest — Read all four completed results together and compare return, Sharpe, drawdown, trade participation, breadth, disclosure lag, turnover, and implementation differences; identify any variant that did not receive adequate data or participation.
- finalAnswer — Show Pelosi's recent publicly available trades, provide the four shareable draft portfolio IDs/links and their exact variant definitions, then report the matched backtest results and limitations. Do not deploy, stage orders, or publish to the community marketplace.
User
Stock Screener: Inspect the existing political_trade_events lake for filer Nancy Pelosi. Report: (1) confirm her filer identity as recorded and coverage dates of her rows; (2) her most recent qualifying trades ordered by firstAvailableAt descending — for each row give ticker, purchase or sale direction, equity versus option activity, disclosed amount range as disclosed, transaction date as recorded, and firstAvailableAt/public availability date; (3) counts of purchases vs sales and equity vs option activity over the last 12 months of firstAvailableAt; (4) rows missing tickers, amendments, superseded rows, and any freshness or data gaps; (5) the latest firstAvailableAt present. Use only values knowable at each disclosure's firstAvailableAt — do not use transaction dates as a hindsight substitute for recency. Preserve disclosed amount ranges as ranges and keep availability timing separate from transaction timing.
Aurora
Results
| DisplayName | MemberId | FilerFirst | FilerLast | FilerKey | IdentitySource | EventId | Version | Chamber | Owner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nancy Pelosi | P000197 | Nancy | Pelosi | member:P000197 | legislators | house:20035143:2 | 1 | house | spouse |
| Nancy Pelosi | P000197 | Nancy | Pelosi | member:P000197 | legislators | house:20035143:0 | 1 | house | spouse |
| Nancy Pelosi | P000197 | Nancy | Pelosi | member:P000197 | legislators | house:20035143:6 | 1 | house | spouse |
| Nancy Pelosi | P000197 | Nancy | Pelosi | member:P000197 | legislators | house:20035143:5 | 1 | house | spouse |
| Nancy Pelosi | P000197 | Nancy | Pelosi | member:P000197 | legislators | house:20035143:3 | 1 | house | spouse |
| Nancy Pelosi | P000197 | Nancy | Pelosi | member:P000197 | legislators | house:20035143:1 | 1 | house | spouse |
| Nancy Pelosi | P000197 | Nancy | Pelosi | member:P000197 | legislators | house:20035143:4 | 1 | house | spouse |
| Nancy Pelosi | P000197 | Nancy | Pelosi | member:P000197 | legislators | house:20034836:0 | 1 | house | spouse |
| Nancy Pelosi | P000197 | Nancy | Pelosi | member:P000197 | legislators | house:20034836:1 | 1 | house | spouse |
| Nancy Pelosi | P000197 | Nancy | Pelosi | member:P000197 | legislators | house:20033725:0 | 1 | house | spouse |
| Nancy Pelosi | P000197 | Nancy | Pelosi | member:P000197 | legislators | house:20033725:13 | 1 | house | spouse |
| Nancy Pelosi | P000197 | Nancy | Pelosi | member:P000197 | legislators | house:20033725:10 | 1 | house | spouse |
| … (26 omitted) | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … |
| Nancy Pelosi | P000197 | Nancy | Pelosi | member:P000197 | legislators | house:20026590:7 | 1 | house | spouse |
| Nancy Pelosi | P000197 | Nancy | Pelosi | member:P000197 | legislators | house:20025819:0 | 1 | house | spouse |
| Nancy Pelosi | P000197 | Nancy | Pelosi | member:P000197 | legislators | house:20025535:1 | 1 | house | spouse |
| Nancy Pelosi | P000197 | Nancy | Pelosi | member:P000197 | legislators | house:20025535:0 | 1 | house | spouse |
| Nancy Pelosi | P000197 | Nancy | Pelosi | member:P000197 | legislators | house:20025368:3 | 1 | house | spouse |
| Nancy Pelosi | P000197 | Nancy | Pelosi | member:P000197 | legislators | house:20025368:1 | 1 | house | spouse |
| Nancy Pelosi | P000197 | Nancy | Pelosi | member:P000197 | legislators | house:20025368:0 | 1 | house | spouse |
| Nancy Pelosi | P000197 | Nancy | Pelosi | member:P000197 | legislators | house:20025368:2 | 1 | house | spouse |
| Nancy Pelosi | P000197 | Nancy | Pelosi | member:P000197 | legislators | house:20024625:0 | 1 | house | spouse |
| Nancy Pelosi | P000197 | Nancy | Pelosi | member:P000197 | legislators | house:20024542:1 | 1 | house | spouse |
| Nancy Pelosi | P000197 | Nancy | Pelosi | member:P000197 | legislators | house:20024542:0 | 1 | house | spouse |
| Nancy Pelosi | P000197 | Nancy | Pelosi | member:P000197 | legislators | house:20024186:0 | 1 | house | spouse |
Showing 24 of 50 rows (first/last). Full set has 50 rows from 2026-07-28 to 2023-11-22.
This query returned 50 records, all attributed to House member Nancy Pelosi (P000197) with the owner listed as spouse. The visible portion shows consistent metadata — House chamber, legislators identity source, and Version 1 — with clustered EventIds indicating multiple line-items grouped under the same disclosures. The displayed view is truncated to first/last rows, so the visible EventIds should not be treated as the complete set.
These figures are as of 2026-08-22's close, not today's live market on Sep 22, 2026, and should not be used as current pricing. This summary is AI-generated and may be inaccurate — please verify AI-generated information against the original filings before use.
These rows span 2014-04-17 to 2026-08-22 — historical, not the latest session (data is current through 2026-09-18).
User
Generate Portfolios: Create exactly FOUR independent chat-portfolio drafts, each with $100,000 initial capital, all based on Nancy Pelosi's publicly disclosed congressional transactions evaluated strictly at each disclosure's public availability time (firstAvailableAt) — never at transaction date. Use native PoliticalTrades indicators over a dynamic US-stock universe so eligibility is recomputed point-in-time at each rebalance; do NOT freeze today's ticker list. Option disclosures (assetTypeCode OP) cannot be reproduced as option contracts, so treat them as underlying-equity eligibility signals for the same ticker — label this as a stated assumption. Disclosed amount ranges are preserved by their bounds (amountLow/amountHigh); missing-ticker and non-equity asset rows are excluded from trading eligibility and noted as unsupported records. Variant definitions:
- 'Pelosi Direct Copy ($100K)' — equal-weight buy of every qualifying Pelosi-disclosed asset name that became public in the trailing lookback window at each rebalance, sized equally across names, rebalancing as new disclosures land.
- 'Pelosi Magnitude Weighted ($100K)' — same universe and timing, but weight each name in proportion to its disclosed amount range (use amountHigh as the disclosed-magnitude proxy), so larger disclosed purchases get larger weights.
- 'Pelosi Quality Filtered ($100K)' — same disclosure-driven universe, filtered to names meeting native quality criteria (positive profitability/fundamentals via native fundamental indicators) before equal-weight sizing.
- 'Pelosi Quality + Momentum ($100K)' — same quality filter, then additionally rank/filter by native momentum (e.g. positive trailing rate of change) and weight or select the strongest momentum names from the quality-passing set.
All four: long-only equity books, no options structures, no deployment of live/paper resources — these are shareable chat drafts only.
Aurora
Created 4 portfolios.
- Pelosi Direct Copy ($100K): portfolioId=6ab2500cef84673ed4371f9f; strategies=Dynamic rebalance US stocks weighted by Constant 1, filter (Asset Congressional BuyCount (90d, Nancy Pelosi, All) > Constant 0) when Constant 1 > Constant 0
- Pelosi Magnitude Weighted ($100K): portfolioId=6ab2500cef84673ed4371fa1; strategies=Dynamic rebalance US stocks weighted by Asset Congressional BuyAmount (90d, Nancy Pelosi, All, UpperBound), filter (Asset Congressional BuyCount (90d, Nancy Pelosi, All) > Constant 0) → filter (Asset Congressional BuyAmount (90d, Nancy Pelosi, All, UpperBound) > Constant 0) when Constant 1 > Constant 0
- Pelosi Quality Filtered ($100K): portfolioId=6ab2500cef84673ed4371fa2; strategies=Dynamic rebalance US stocks weighted by Constant 1, filter (Asset Congressional BuyCount (90d, Nancy Pelosi, All) > Constant 0 and Asset's netIncome > Constant 0 and Asset's freeCashFlow > Constant 0) when Constant 1 > Constant 0
- Pelosi Quality + Momentum ($100K): portfolioId=6ab2500cef84673ed4371fa4; strategies=Dynamic rebalance US stocks weighted by Asset Congressional BuyAmount (90d, Nancy Pelosi, All, UpperBound) * 126 Day Rate of Change, filter (Asset Congressional BuyCount (90d, Nancy Pelosi, All) > Constant 0 and Asset's netIncome > Constant 0 and Asset's freeCashFlow > Constant 0 and 126 Day Rate of Change > Constant 0) when Constant 1 > Constant 0
Use these portfolioIds directly in subsequent portfolio tools. Do not fetch or ask the user to recover IDs already listed here.
User
Backtest Portfolios: Backtest all four chat portfolios together — 6ab2500cef84673ed4371f9f (Pelosi Direct Copy $100K), 6ab2500cef84673ed4371fa1 (Pelosi Magnitude Weighted $100K), 6ab2500cef84673ed4371fa2 (Pelosi Quality Filtered $100K), and 6ab2500cef84673ed4371fa4 (Pelosi Quality + Momentum $100K) — from 2024-01-01 through 2026-09-21 (latest completed session), Day interval, $100,000 initial value each, baseline SPY buy-and-hold, matched fee and slippage assumptions across all four. These are long-only equity books using point-in-time PoliticalTrades signals keyed to each disclosure's public availability.
Aurora
Started 4 native backtests. Backtest IDs: ["6ab25022f68259010dd26c5f","6ab25022f68259010dd26c5e","6ab25022f68259010dd26c60","6ab25022f68259010dd26c61"]. Next, call Read Backtest with exactly these backtestIds. Do not run Backtest Portfolios again for the same portfolio and window.
User
Read Backtest: Read all four backtests just completed: 6ab25022f68259010dd26c5f (Pelosi Direct Copy), 6ab25022f68259010dd26c5e (Pelosi Magnitude Weighted), 6ab25022f68259010dd26c60 (Pelosi Quality Filtered), 6ab25022f68259010dd26c61 (Pelosi Quality + Momentum). For each return total percent change, Sharpe, Sortino, max drawdown, win rate, trade count, participation rate, median deployment, distinct tickers traded, dollars sold, profit factor, and the SPY baseline return for the same 2024-01-01 to 2026-09-21 window.
Aurora
Backtests finished (4 complete).
Aurora
Backtest Analysis — Pelosi Disclosure Portfolios
Window: 2024-01-01 to 2026-09-21 (Day interval, baseline SPY) — windowKey: 2024-01-01|2026-09-21|Day|SPY. All four rows are the same measurement and directly comparable.
Fee contract charged on all four (platform default, not overridden): Stock 0.1% of notional per fill, Cryptocurrency 0.7%, Option $0.65/contract, option slippage 0.5 of half-spread. No run was commission-free. Actual fees charged: $3,827 / $3,735 / $1,638 / $6,429 respectively.
Participation verdict first
- Pelosi Quality + Momentum — SPARSE. Median deployment was 0.0%: the capital sat in cash most days of the window, despite 537 open fills. The book churned heavily when it did trade ($3.21M dollars sold — the highest of all four — against only 562 closed trades at a 0.79 profit factor), but the median day held no position. A book built to hold disclosure-driven equity positions most of the time is not working as authored. Before optimizing or deploying this variant, determine whether the momentum gate (positive 126-day ROC and quality and disclosure, all simultaneously true) simply had no qualifying names on most rebalance days — if the intent was a continuously invested book, the filter stack needs to be loosened and the book re-back-tested.
- The other three are active: median deployment 98.5% — ~always invested. Their results should not be described as sparse or decisively timed; they are buy-and-hold-style exposure to a small disclosed-name set.
Same-window comparison
| Backtest | Portfolio | Return | Alpha | Sharpe | Sortino | Max DD | Win rate | Trades | Median deploy | Distinct tickers | Dollars sold | Profit factor | Fees charged | Peak collateral |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
6ab25022…c5e |
Pelosi Magnitude Weighted ($100K) | +123.25% | +57.15% | 0.82 | 1.21 | 36.71% | 62.4% | 1,160 | 98.5% | 11 | $1,865,298 | 2.00 | $3,827 | $0 |
6ab25022…c5f |
Pelosi Direct Copy ($100K) | +111.05% | +44.95% | 0.79 | 1.17 | 34.39% | 67.8% | 1,168 | 98.5% | 11 | $1,819,962 | 2.22 | $3,735 | $0 |
6ab25022…c60 |
Pelosi Quality Filtered ($100K) | +18.47% | −47.63% | 0.20 | 0.29 | 34.39% | 68.8% | 949 | 98.5% | 8 | $770,652 | 1.56 | $1,638 | $0 |
6ab25022…c61 |
Pelosi Quality + Momentum ($100K) | −22.30% | −88.41% | −0.31 | −0.42 | 34.48% | 35.0% | 562 | 0.0% (sparse) | 8 | $3,206,645 | 0.79 | $6,429 | $0 |
| — | SPY baseline (same window) | +66.10% | — | 0.90 | 1.32 | 19.95% | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — |
Peak collateral at risk is $0 for all four — these are long-only equity books with no options positions, so no collateral was reserved (peak = median = 0). This does not mean "no risk"; the books were fully exposed to equity downside, as the ~34–37% drawdowns show.
Trends
- The unfiltered disclosure signal worked; the overlays destroyed it. Both plain variants beat SPY (+123%/+111% vs +66%), while adding the quality filter cut returns to +18% and adding momentum on top produced a loss. Pelosi's disclosed names (NVDA, AVGO, PANW, INTC, UBER, AB…) carried the return; the native fundamental/ROC gates removed exactly the names that drove it.
- Alpha concentration: top-5 names were 71–87% of entry notional in every run, and only 8–11 distinct tickers were ever traded out of a 9,754-name universe (participation ~0.08–0.11%). This is a very narrow book — results are single-name dominated (NVDA alone was 18–24% of entry notional).
- Risk was not reduced by any variant. Max drawdowns cluster at 34–37% versus SPY's 19.95% — every variant took roughly double the baseline drawdown for its return. The two winners also had lower Sharpe (0.79–0.82) than SPY (0.90): the alpha is raw return, not risk-adjusted return.
- The quality+momentum variant was both idle and costly. Sparse deployment, worst win rate (35%), profit factor < 1, and the highest fee drag ($6,429) from churning in and out of an 8-name set.
Summary
For 2024-01-01 → 2026-09-21: Pelosi Magnitude Weighted (+123.25%) and Direct Copy (+111.05%) outperformed SPY's +66.10% on total return, after the standard 0.1%-per-fill stock fee — but with ~2× the drawdown and slightly worse Sharpe. The Quality Filtered variant underperformed badly (+18.47%), and the Quality + Momentum variant is a failed run in the participation sense: 0% median deployment means it mostly held cash and still lost 22.30%. Do not optimize or deploy Quality + Momentum until its idle-capital cause is fixed and it's re-back-tested; if you want to iterate on a working candidate, the Magnitude Weighted book is the one worth optimizing (e.g., broadening beyond the top-5 concentration) — with the caveat that all of these rests on ~11 tickers, so the outperformance is highly name-specific and not a diversified edge.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. These are simulated backtests with platform-default fees; option disclosures were treated as underlying-equity signals per the stated assumption.
User
Nancy Pelosi — recent publicly disclosed trades
Filer resolved in the lake as Nancy Pelosi (P000197), House, filerKey member:P000197, identity source legislators, owner spouse. Coverage: 216 rows, first disclosure available 2014-04-17, latest firstAvailableAt 2026-08-22. Recent qualifying trades by public availability (amount ranges exactly as disclosed; availability ≠ transaction date):
| Available (firstAvailableAt) | Transaction date | Ticker | Direction | Type | Disclosed range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | 2026-07-28 | BE | Purchase | Equity | $500,001–$1,000,000 |
| 2026-08-22 | 2026-07-28 | BE | Purchase | Option | $500,001–$1,000,000 |
| 2026-08-22 | 2026-07-27 | REOF XXV, LLC | Purchase | Non-equity (no ticker) | $500,001–$1,000,000 |
| 2026-08-22 | 2026-07-24 | BE | Purchase | Equity | $1,000,001–$5,000,000 |
| 2026-08-22 | 2026-07-24 | BE | Purchase | Option | $1,000,001–$5,000,000 |
| 2026-08-22 | 2026-07-24 | INTC | Purchase | Equity | $500,001–$1,000,000 |
| 2026-08-22 | 2026-07-24 | INTC | Purchase | Option | $250,001–$500,000 |
| 2026-06-24 | 2026-05-29 | INTC | Purchase | Option | $1,000,001–$5,000,000 |
| 2026-06-24 | 2026-05-29 | UBER | Purchase | Option | $500,001–$1,000,000 |
| 2026-01-24 | 2026-01-16 | AB | Purchase | Non-equity (AB units) | $1,000,001–$5,000,000 |
Last 12 months of firstAvailableAt: 28 rows total — 19 purchases / 8 sales (1 unclassified), 19 equity-type / 9 option-type, 1 missing-ticker row in-window. Data gaps: 18 rows overall lack tickers (private/asset-class entries like LLCs); 0 amendments (all version 1), 0 superseded rows — no amendment history to reconcile. Latest availability is 2026-08-22; nothing newer has landed as of today (2026-09-22).
Four shareable $100K chat drafts (not deployed, not published)
| Draft | Portfolio ID | Variant |
|---|---|---|
| Pelosi Direct Copy ($100K) | 6ab2500cef84673ed4371f9f |
Equal-weight over every US-stock name with ≥1 Pelosi buy disclosure in the trailing 90 days (PIT at firstAvailableAt) |
| Pelosi Magnitude Weighted ($100K) | 6ab2500cef84673ed4371fa1 |
Same universe, weighted by disclosed amount upper bound (amountHigh as the magnitude proxy) |
| Pelosi Quality Filtered ($100K) | 6ab2500cef84673ed4371fa2 |
Disclosure universe filtered to names with positive netIncome and positive freeCashFlow, equal-weight |
| Pelosi Quality + Momentum ($100K) | 6ab2500cef84673ed4371fa4 |
Quality filter + positive 126-day rate of change, weighted by amountHigh × momentum |
All four: long-only equity books over ALL_US_STOCKS with point-in-time eligibility recomputed each rebalance (today's tickers were never frozen). Stated assumptions: option disclosures (assetTypeCode OP) are treated as underlying-equity eligibility signals for the same ticker — the contracts themselves are not reproduced; missing-ticker and non-equity rows (18 records, e.g., REOF XXV LLC) cannot bind to a stock universe and are excluded from trading eligibility.
Backtest results — 2024-01-01 → 2026-09-21, Day, $100K, baseline SPY (matched fees/slippage)
| Variant | Total return | Alpha vs SPY | Sharpe | Sortino | Max DD | Win rate | Closed trades | Median deployment | Distinct tickers | Dollars sold | Profit factor | Fees |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magnitude Weighted | +123.25% | +57.15% | 0.82 | 1.21 | 36.71% | 62.4% | 579 | 98.5% | 11 | $1.87M | 2.00 | $3,827 |
| Direct Copy | +111.05% | +44.95% | 0.79 | 1.17 | 34.39% | 67.8% | 574 | 98.5% | 11 | $1.82M | 2.22 | $3,735 |
| Quality Filtered | +18.47% | −47.63% | 0.20 | 0.29 | 34.39% | 68.8% | 474 | 98.5% | 8 | $0.77M | 1.56 | $1,638 |
| Quality + Momentum | −22.30% | −88.41% | −0.31 | −0.42 | 34.48% | 35.0% | 275 | 0.0% (sparse) | 8 | $3.21M | 0.79 | $6,429 |
| SPY baseline | +66.10% | — | 0.90 | 1.32 | 19.95% | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
Limitations
- Quality + Momentum is a broken run for reuse, not a verdict on the thesis: 0% median deployment — the capital sat in cash most days while the three gates (disclosure + quality + positive 126d ROC) rarely coincided. It also churned most ($3.2M sold) and paid the highest fees while losing. Do not optimize or deploy it as-is; loosen the filter stack and re-backtest first.
- The overlays destroyed the raw signal: the two plain disclosure books beat SPY (+123%/+111% vs +66%), but the quality gate alone cut returns to +18% — the fundamental/ROC filters removed the very names driving Pelosi's disclosed outperformance.
- Narrow and concentrated: only 8–11 distinct tickers were ever traded; top-5 names were 71–87% of entry notional (NVDA alone 18–24%). This is single-name-dominated, not a diversified edge.
- Risk was never reduced: every variant's max drawdown (~34–37%) is roughly double SPY's 19.95%, and both winners had lower Sharpe (0.79–0.82) than SPY (0.90) — the win is raw return, not risk-adjusted return.
- Disclosures lag transactions: entries fire at
firstAvailableAt(e.g., July trades became public Aug 22), so the books trade the published signal with its inherent delay — correctly modeled, but it means these results measure copy-after-publication, not trade-at-transaction. - All figures are simulations with platform-default fees (0.1% stock per fill); past performance is not indicative of future results. Drafts remain chat-only — nothing was deployed, staged, or published.
Aurora
Nancy Pelosi — recent publicly disclosed trades
Filer resolved in the lake as Nancy Pelosi (P000197), House, filerKey member:P000197, identity source legislators, owner spouse. Coverage: 216 rows, first disclosure available 2014-04-17, latest firstAvailableAt 2026-08-22. Recent qualifying trades by public availability (amount ranges exactly as disclosed; availability ≠ transaction date):
| Available (firstAvailableAt) | Transaction date | Ticker | Direction | Type | Disclosed range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | 2026-07-28 | BE | Purchase | Equity | $500,001–$1,000,000 |
| 2026-08-22 | 2026-07-28 | BE | Purchase | Option | $500,001–$1,000,000 |
| 2026-08-22 | 2026-07-27 | REOF XXV, LLC | Purchase | Non-equity (no ticker) | $500,001–$1,000,000 |
| 2026-08-22 | 2026-07-24 | BE | Purchase | Equity | $1,000,001–$5,000,000 |
| 2026-08-22 | 2026-07-24 | BE | Purchase | Option | $1,000,001–$5,000,000 |
| 2026-08-22 | 2026-07-24 | INTC | Purchase | Equity | $500,001–$1,000,000 |
| 2026-08-22 | 2026-07-24 | INTC | Purchase | Option | $250,001–$500,000 |
| 2026-06-24 | 2026-05-29 | INTC | Purchase | Option | $1,000,001–$5,000,000 |
| 2026-06-24 | 2026-05-29 | UBER | Purchase | Option | $500,001–$1,000,000 |
| 2026-01-24 | 2026-01-16 | AB | Purchase | Non-equity (AB units) | $1,000,001–$5,000,000 |
Last 12 months of firstAvailableAt: 28 rows total — 19 purchases / 8 sales (1 unclassified), 19 equity-type / 9 option-type, 1 missing-ticker row in-window. Data gaps: 18 rows overall lack tickers (private/asset-class entries like LLCs); 0 amendments (all version 1), 0 superseded rows — no amendment history to reconcile. Latest availability is 2026-08-22; nothing newer has landed as of today (2026-09-22).
Four shareable $100K chat drafts (not deployed, not published)
| Draft | Portfolio ID | Variant |
|---|---|---|
| Pelosi Direct Copy ($100K) | 6ab2500cef84673ed4371f9f |
Equal-weight over every US-stock name with ≥1 Pelosi buy disclosure in the trailing 90 days (PIT at firstAvailableAt) |
| Pelosi Magnitude Weighted ($100K) | 6ab2500cef84673ed4371fa1 |
Same universe, weighted by disclosed amount upper bound (amountHigh as the magnitude proxy) |
| Pelosi Quality Filtered ($100K) | 6ab2500cef84673ed4371fa2 |
Disclosure universe filtered to names with positive netIncome and positive freeCashFlow, equal-weight |
| Pelosi Quality + Momentum ($100K) | 6ab2500cef84673ed4371fa4 |
Quality filter + positive 126-day rate of change, weighted by amountHigh × momentum |
All four: long-only equity books over ALL_US_STOCKS with point-in-time eligibility recomputed each rebalance (today's tickers were never frozen). Stated assumptions: option disclosures (assetTypeCode OP) are treated as underlying-equity eligibility signals for the same ticker — the contracts themselves are not reproduced; missing-ticker and non-equity rows (18 records, e.g., REOF XXV LLC) cannot bind to a stock universe and are excluded from trading eligibility.
Backtest results — 2024-01-01 → 2026-09-21, Day, $100K, baseline SPY (matched fees/slippage)
| Variant | Total return | Alpha vs SPY | Sharpe | Sortino | Max DD | Win rate | Closed trades | Median deployment | Distinct tickers | Dollars sold | Profit factor | Fees |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magnitude Weighted | +123.25% | +57.15% | 0.82 | 1.21 | 36.71% | 62.4% | 579 | 98.5% | 11 | $1.87M | 2.00 | $3,827 |
| Direct Copy | +111.05% | +44.95% | 0.79 | 1.17 | 34.39% | 67.8% | 574 | 98.5% | 11 | $1.82M | 2.22 | $3,735 |
| Quality Filtered | +18.47% | −47.63% | 0.20 | 0.29 | 34.39% | 68.8% | 474 | 98.5% | 8 | $0.77M | 1.56 | $1,638 |
| Quality + Momentum | −22.30% | −88.41% | −0.31 | −0.42 | 34.48% | 35.0% | 275 | 0.0% (sparse) | 8 | $3.21M | 0.79 | $6,429 |
| SPY baseline | +66.10% | — | 0.90 | 1.32 | 19.95% | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
Limitations
- Quality + Momentum is a broken run for reuse, not a verdict on the thesis: 0% median deployment — the capital sat in cash most days while the three gates (disclosure + quality + positive 126d ROC) rarely coincided. It also churned most ($3.2M sold) and paid the highest fees while losing. Do not optimize or deploy it as-is; loosen the filter stack and re-backtest first.
- The overlays destroyed the raw signal: the two plain disclosure books beat SPY (+123%/+111% vs +66%), but the quality gate alone cut returns to +18% — the fundamental/ROC filters removed the very names driving Pelosi's disclosed outperformance.
- Narrow and concentrated: only 8–11 distinct tickers were ever traded; top-5 names were 71–87% of entry notional (NVDA alone 18–24%). This is single-name-dominated, not a diversified edge.
- Risk was never reduced: every variant's max drawdown (~34–37%) is roughly double SPY's 19.95%, and both winners had lower Sharpe (0.79–0.82) than SPY (0.90) — the win is raw return, not risk-adjusted return.
- Disclosures lag transactions: entries fire at
firstAvailableAt(e.g., July trades became public Aug 22), so the books trade the published signal with its inherent delay — correctly modeled, but it means these results measure copy-after-publication, not trade-at-transaction. - All figures are simulations with platform-default fees (0.1% stock per fill); past performance is not indicative of future results. Drafts remain chat-only — nothing was deployed, staged, or published.
Portfolios Created (4):
- Pelosi Direct Copy ($100K) (top-performer): Beat SPY by +44.95% alpha with 67.8% win rate, but took ~2x SPY's drawdown (34.39% vs 19.95%) on only 11 distinct tickers.
Strategies: Dynamic rebalance US stocks weighted by Constant 1, filter (Asset Congressional BuyCount (90d, Nancy Pelosi, All) > Constant 0) when Constant 1 > Constant 0 - Pelosi Magnitude Weighted ($100K) (top-performer): Best of all four: +123.25% total return (+57.15% alpha vs SPY) by sizing into Pelosi's largest disclosed purchases; Sharpe 0.82 still trailed SPY's 0.90.
Strategies: Dynamic rebalance US stocks weighted by Asset Congressional BuyAmount (90d, Nancy Pelosi, All, UpperBound), filter (Asset Congressional BuyCount (90d, Nancy Pelosi, All) > Constant 0) → filter (Asset Congressional BuyAmount (90d, Nancy Pelosi, All, UpperBound) > Constant 0) when Constant 1 > Constant 0 - Pelosi Quality Filtered ($100K) (tested): Positive netIncome/freeCashFlow filter cut returns to +18.47% (alpha -47.63%) — it removed exactly the speculative disclosed names driving the outperformance.
Strategies: Dynamic rebalance US stocks weighted by Constant 1, filter (Asset Congressional BuyCount (90d, Nancy Pelosi, All) > Constant 0 and Asset's netIncome > Constant 0 and Asset's freeCashFlow > Constant 0) when Constant 1 > Constant 0 - Pelosi Quality + Momentum ($100K) (failed): Broken run: 0% median deployment meant capital sat in cash most days while the triple gate rarely coincided; still lost 22.30% with highest fees ($6,429) and profit factor 0.79.
Strategies: Dynamic rebalance US stocks weighted by Asset Congressional BuyAmount (90d, Nancy Pelosi, All, UpperBound) * 126 Day Rate of Change, filter (Asset Congressional BuyCount (90d, Nancy Pelosi, All) > Constant 0 and Asset's netIncome > Constant 0 and Asset's freeCashFlow > Constant 0 and 126 Day Rate of Change > Constant 0) when Constant 1 > Constant 0