Shared agent run
AI Bakeoff: Gemma 4 31B
Options trading strategy experiment using Gemma 4 31B (Score: 50)
Read the conversation below. Open the interactive view for charts, attachments, and continuing this run.
User
Look at my watchlist and current market conditions, design a profitable options trading strategy that I should use at Monday at open. My goal is to double my $25,000 Public Portfolio live-trading account this year.
Aurora
You want to design a high-alpha options strategy for your $25,000 Public Portfolio, utilizing your watchlist and current market conditions to target a 100% annual return. This is a Category 4b (Research-Then-Design) request because it requires grounding the strategy in current data and historical patterns to ensure the aggressive goal is pursued realistically.
The Core Question
For the assets on your watchlist and the current market regime, which options structure (defined-risk spreads vs. directional longs) provides the best risk-adjusted path to doubling a $25,000 account, and is this goal feasible given current volatility and capital constraints?
Plan
Step 1: Watchlist & Regime Analysis
I will first retrieve your current watchlist and analyze the market regime. I'll query SPY/QQQ trends, VIX levels, and the 30-day momentum of your watchlist assets. This determines if we are in a "risk-on" momentum environment or a "mean-reversion" environment, which dictates whether we prioritize bull call spreads or put credit spreads.
Tools: Fetch User Watchlists, Stock Screener
Step 2: Options Chain & Capital Validation
For the top candidates from your watchlist, I will pull 30-45 DTE option chains. I will specifically validate the cost of ATM and OTM spreads against your $25,000 account size to ensure we don't exceed 10% allocation per trade, avoiding the "over-concentration" pitfall noted in prior knowledge.
Tool: Options Chain Viewer
Step 3: Create Mechanical Candidate Portfolios
Based on the data, I will create 6-8 mechanical portfolios testing competing hypotheses (e.g., Bull Call Spreads for growth, Iron Condors for range-bound, or Long Calls for high-conviction momentum).
- Hard Constraint:
initialPortfolioValue: 25000. I will not use default options capital, as the strategy must be viable for your actual account size. - Baseline: I will include one simple baseline portfolio with minimal filters to ensure trading activity occurs.
Tool: Create YAML Portfolios
Step 4: Backtest Across Multiple Regimes
I will test these candidates across four distinct periods to ensure robustness:
- Jan 2022 – Dec 2022 (Bear market / High Vol)
- Jan 2023 – Dec 2023 (AI Bull Run)
- Jan 2024 – Dec 2024 (Trend Continuation)
- Jan 2025 – Present (Current Regime)
Tool: Backtest Portfolios
Step 5: Analyze and Select Winner
I will identify the winning strategy based on the Sortino Ratio and worst-regime return—not just the best year. I will note the chatPortfolioId of the winner for deployment.
Tool: Read Backtest
Step 6: Attach LaunchAgent Portfolio Monitor
To satisfy the "managed over time" requirement, I will use Edit Portfolio to add a LaunchAgent monitor to the winning portfolio. This agent will review positions weekly or upon a regime flip (e.g., SPY crossing below 200 SMA) and propose adjustments for your approval.
Tool: Edit Portfolio (addStrategies)
Step 7: Deploy for Monday Open
I will deploy the augmented portfolio as paper-trading so you can validate the first few trades on Monday morning.
Tool: Edit Portfolio (deploy)
Step 8: Final Answer & Feasibility Check
I will provide a final report including:
- Goal Feasibility Check: Comparing the average return across all regimes to your 100% goal. If the average is < 50% of the goal, I will explicitly flag the gap.
- Current-Regime Eligibility: Stating if the strategy is ACTIVE or ARMED-BUT-INACTIVE for Monday's open.
- Backtest Summary: A table showing performance across all tested regimes.
- Monitor Details: What the watchdog agent is tracking and when it will alert you.
User
Retrieve all of the user's saved watchlists and the symbols contained within them.
Aurora
Here is your 1 watchlist, in the same order as in the app:
1. All my favorites
META (stock), GOOG (stock), NVDA (stock), BTC-USD (crypto), HOOD (stock), LLY (stock), SPY (stock), QQQ (stock), AMD (stock), AVGO (stock), TSM (stock), ANET (stock), GS (stock), DUOL (stock), XOM (stock), COP (stock), POWL (stock)
User
Current market regime analysis: Provide the current price of SPY and QQQ and their 200-day Simple Moving Averages. Provide the current VIX level. Additionally, for the following symbols [META, GOOG, NVDA, BTC-USD, HOOD, LLY, AMD, AVGO, TSM, ANET, GS, DUOL, XOM, COP, POWL], provide their 30-day Price Rate of Change and current 14-day RSI.
User
Show me the 30-45 DTE options chains for AMD, COP, LLY, and META. I specifically need the pricing for ATM and slightly OTM call spreads (bull call spreads) to validate if they are affordable within a $2,500 per position limit for a $25,000 account.
Aurora
Options Chain: AMD
Underlying Price: $219.00
Data Source: Brokerage
2026-05-08 (33 DTE)
Calls:
| Strike | Bid | Ask | Mid | Volume | OI | IV | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $180.00 | $39.95 | $43.50 | $41.73 | 3 | 1 | N/A | N/A |
| $185.00 | $36.65 | $38.35 | $37.50 | 1 | 33 | N/A | N/A |
| $190.00 | $31.95 | $35.45 | $33.70 | 15 | 199 | 58.8% | 0.820 |
| $195.00 | $28.45 | $30.90 | $29.67 | 2 | 88 | 57.2% | 0.784 |
| $200.00 | $26.00 | $28.00 | $27.00 | 29 | 144 | 61.1% | 0.728 |
| $205.00 | $22.05 | $23.70 | $22.88 | 12 | 221 | 57.1% | 0.689 |
| $210.00 | $19.70 | $20.50 | $20.10 | 64 | 195 | 57.9% | 0.636 |
| $215.00 | $16.95 | $17.50 | $17.23 | 148 | 206 | 57.2% | 0.584 |
| $220.00 | $14.75 | $15.00 | $14.88 | 68 | 253 | 57.6% | 0.531 |
| $225.00 | $12.45 | $12.85 | $12.65 | 844 | 286 | 57.4% | 0.479 |
| $230.00 | $10.45 | $11.00 | $10.72 | 84 | 179 | 57.4% | 0.428 |
| $235.00 | $8.70 | $9.00 | $8.85 | 24 | 233 | 56.7% | 0.377 |
| $240.00 | $7.20 | $7.45 | $7.33 | 141 | 144 | 56.4% | 0.330 |
| $245.00 | $5.90 | $6.05 | $5.97 | 157 | 142 | 56.0% | 0.285 |
| $250.00 | $4.75 | $5.00 | $4.88 | 174 | 334 | 55.8% | 0.245 |
| $255.00 | $3.85 | $4.20 | $4.03 | 67 | 320 | 56.0% | 0.210 |
| $260.00 | $3.05 | $3.50 | $3.27 | 39 | 344 | N/A | N/A |
2026-05-15 (40 DTE)
Calls:
| Strike | Bid | Ask | Mid | Volume | OI | IV | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $180.00 | $42.10 | $43.55 | $42.83 | 19 | 751 | N/A | N/A |
| $185.00 | $37.95 | $39.00 | $38.48 | 531 | 1131 | N/A | N/A |
| $190.00 | $34.05 | $35.30 | $34.67 | 8 | 941 | 57.8% | 0.806 |
| $195.00 | $30.30 | $31.50 | $30.90 | 59 | 1431 | 57.1% | 0.768 |
| $200.00 | $27.40 | $27.90 | $27.65 | 593 | 19558 | 57.7% | 0.724 |
| $210.00 | $21.35 | $21.60 | $21.48 | 1985 | 9831 | 57.3% | 0.632 |
| $220.00 | $16.05 | $16.25 | $16.15 | 1167 | 9107 | 56.4% | 0.536 |
| $230.00 | $11.75 | $11.95 | $11.85 | 1210 | 8634 | 55.8% | 0.439 |
| $240.00 | $8.40 | $8.55 | $8.48 | 744 | 9669 | 55.3% | 0.348 |
| $250.00 | $5.85 | $6.00 | $5.92 | 1576 | 10914 | 55.0% | 0.268 |
| $260.00 | $4.05 | $4.15 | $4.10 | 6025 | 6301 | 54.9% | 0.201 |
Options data may be delayed. AI analyses can be inaccurate. This is not financial advice.
Options Chain: COP
Underlying Price: $129.93
Data Source: Brokerage
2026-05-08 (33 DTE)
Calls:
| Strike | Bid | Ask | Mid | Volume | OI | IV | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $105.00 | $24.00 | $28.20 | $26.10 | 0 | 0 | N/A | N/A |
| $110.00 | $19.85 | $23.50 | $21.68 | 1 | 58 | N/A | N/A |
| $113.00 | $17.20 | $19.80 | $18.50 | 0 | 0 | 45.0% | 0.871 |
| $114.00 | $16.30 | $18.95 | $17.63 | 0 | 0 | 44.5% | 0.859 |
| $115.00 | $14.75 | $19.00 | $16.88 | 1 | 1 | 45.2% | 0.840 |
| $116.00 | $14.00 | $17.95 | $15.97 | 0 | 0 | 44.1% | 0.829 |
| $117.00 | $13.95 | $16.50 | $15.22 | 1 | 2 | 44.4% | 0.811 |
| $118.00 | $12.40 | $16.20 | $14.30 | 1 | 1 | 42.9% | 0.800 |
| $119.00 | $11.60 | $15.65 | $13.63 | 0 | 0 | 43.6% | 0.778 |
| $120.00 | $10.80 | $14.75 | $12.78 | 0 | 0 | 42.5% | 0.763 |
| $121.00 | $10.00 | $14.15 | $12.07 | 0 | 0 | 42.6% | 0.742 |
| $122.00 | $9.35 | $13.25 | $11.30 | 0 | 0 | 41.9% | 0.723 |
| $123.00 | $10.20 | $11.40 | $10.80 | 1 | 1 | 43.2% | 0.697 |
| $124.00 | $8.75 | $11.20 | $9.97 | 1 | 0 | 41.8% | 0.678 |
| $125.00 | $8.10 | $10.60 | $9.35 | 2 | 6 | 41.8% | 0.655 |
| $126.00 | $8.30 | $9.45 | $8.88 | 6 | 3 | 42.6% | 0.630 |
| $127.00 | $7.50 | $9.95 | $8.72 | 5 | 3 | 45.4% | 0.603 |
| $128.00 | $6.95 | $8.15 | $7.55 | 1 | 0 | 41.1% | 0.583 |
| $129.00 | $6.00 | $7.75 | $6.88 | 24 | 0 | 40.1% | 0.559 |
| $130.00 | $5.95 | $6.80 | $6.38 | 16 | 21 | 40.1% | 0.533 |
| $131.00 | $5.65 | $6.60 | $6.13 | 1 | 3 | 41.5% | 0.509 |
| $132.00 | $5.20 | $5.90 | $5.55 | 3 | 3 | 40.7% | 0.483 |
| $133.00 | $4.60 | $5.55 | $5.07 | 32 | 8 | 40.4% | 0.458 |
| $134.00 | $4.25 | $5.00 | $4.63 | 1 | 4 | 40.0% | 0.432 |
| $135.00 | $3.85 | $4.80 | $4.33 | 1 | 5 | 40.5% | 0.409 |
| $136.00 | $3.60 | $4.30 | $3.95 | 4 | 5 | 40.3% | 0.385 |
| $137.00 | $3.10 | $4.10 | $3.60 | 4 | 5 | 40.2% | 0.362 |
| $138.00 | $2.93 | $3.75 | $3.34 | 4 | 7 | 40.5% | 0.341 |
| $139.00 | $2.56 | $3.35 | $2.96 | 1 | 1 | 39.8% | 0.315 |
| $140.00 | $2.34 | $2.99 | $2.67 | 1 | 30 | 39.6% | 0.293 |
| $141.00 | $2.28 | $2.78 | $2.53 | 2 | 1 | 40.4% | 0.278 |
| $142.00 | $2.07 | $3.90 | $2.98 | 2 | 1 | 45.7% | 0.288 |
| $143.00 | $1.93 | $2.46 | $2.19 | 0 | 0 | 41.3% | 0.245 |
| $145.00 | $1.54 | $1.89 | $1.71 | 16 | 0 | 40.4% | 0.206 |
| $150.00 | $0.77 | $1.74 | $1.25 | 0 | 0 | 43.1% | 0.153 |
| $155.00 | $0.10 | $1.33 | $0.72 | 0 | 0 | 42.6% | 0.097 |
2026-05-15 (40 DTE)
Calls:
| Strike | Bid | Ask | Mid | Volume | OI | IV | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $105.00 | $24.60 | $27.35 | $25.98 | 2 | 576 | N/A | N/A |
| $110.00 | $20.30 | $22.50 | $21.40 | 78 | 2974 | 44.2% | 0.893 |
| $115.00 | $16.50 | $17.75 | $17.13 | 1 | 1559 | 42.8% | 0.833 |
| $120.00 | $11.30 | $13.90 | $12.60 | 110 | 2767 | 36.8% | 0.774 |
| $125.00 | $8.85 | $10.15 | $9.50 | 164 | 4811 | 38.5% | 0.656 |
| $130.00 | $6.60 | $7.35 | $6.97 | 270 | 2315 | 39.7% | 0.537 |
| $135.00 | $4.65 | $5.05 | $4.85 | 242 | 1522 | 39.7% | 0.422 |
| $140.00 | $3.10 | $3.40 | $3.25 | 576 | 2731 | 39.6% | 0.317 |
| $145.00 | $1.93 | $2.20 | $2.06 | 82 | 739 | 39.3% | 0.226 |
| $150.00 | $1.22 | $1.43 | $1.32 | 70 | 437 | 39.7% | 0.158 |
| $155.00 | $0.73 | $1.05 | $0.89 | 3 | 362 | 40.8% | 0.111 |
Options data may be delayed. AI analyses can be inaccurate. This is not financial advice.
Options Chain: LLY
Underlying Price: $940.00
Data Source: Brokerage
2026-05-08 (33 DTE)
Calls:
| Strike | Bid | Ask | Mid | Volume | OI | IV | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $760.00 | $181.50 | $189.70 | $185.60 | 0 | 0 | N/A | N/A |
| $770.00 | $172.40 | $180.65 | $176.53 | 0 | 0 | N/A | N/A |
| $780.00 | $163.35 | $171.75 | $167.55 | 0 | 0 | N/A | N/A |
| $790.00 | $154.75 | $161.30 | $158.03 | 0 | 0 | N/A | N/A |
| $800.00 | $146.15 | $152.65 | $149.40 | 0 | 0 | 46.2% | 0.897 |
| $810.00 | $137.40 | $145.00 | $141.20 | 0 | 0 | 46.8% | 0.877 |
| $820.00 | $129.85 | $136.65 | $133.25 | 0 | 0 | 47.4% | 0.855 |
| $825.00 | $126.05 | $132.20 | $129.13 | 0 | 0 | 47.3% | 0.846 |
| $830.00 | $120.55 | $129.90 | $125.22 | 0 | 0 | 47.5% | 0.835 |
| $835.00 | $117.00 | $124.00 | $120.50 | 0 | 0 | 46.4% | 0.829 |
| $840.00 | $114.00 | $119.90 | $116.95 | 4 | 2 | 46.9% | 0.815 |
| $845.00 | $109.55 | $117.65 | $113.60 | 2 | 1 | 47.5% | 0.801 |
| $850.00 | $105.40 | $111.35 | $108.38 | 4 | 1 | 45.6% | 0.797 |
| $855.00 | $101.85 | $108.50 | $105.17 | 2 | 1 | 46.3% | 0.782 |
| $860.00 | $98.15 | $104.85 | $101.50 | 0 | 0 | 46.3% | 0.769 |
| $865.00 | $94.40 | $103.00 | $98.70 | 0 | 0 | 47.1% | 0.753 |
| $870.00 | $92.05 | $99.00 | $95.53 | 1 | 1 | 47.5% | 0.739 |
| $875.00 | $87.20 | $94.45 | $90.83 | 2 | 1 | 46.1% | 0.730 |
| $880.00 | $84.00 | $91.35 | $87.67 | 0 | 0 | 46.3% | 0.716 |
| $885.00 | $82.25 | $86.95 | $84.60 | 2 | 0 | 46.5% | 0.701 |
| $890.00 | $78.65 | $86.00 | $82.33 | 2 | 3 | 47.5% | 0.684 |
| $895.00 | $75.60 | $80.35 | $77.97 | 2 | 1 | 46.3% | 0.673 |
| $900.00 | $73.35 | $77.20 | $75.28 | 1 | 13 | 46.6% | 0.658 |
| $905.00 | $69.45 | $74.10 | $71.78 | 2 | 1 | 46.1% | 0.644 |
| $910.00 | $66.40 | $72.20 | $69.30 | 4 | 4 | 46.5% | 0.628 |
| $915.00 | $63.40 | $69.80 | $66.60 | 2 | 2 | 46.6% | 0.613 |
| $920.00 | $60.65 | $67.00 | $63.83 | 1 | 0 | 46.6% | 0.598 |
| $925.00 | $57.80 | $63.80 | $60.80 | 2 | 3 | 46.3% | 0.583 |
| $930.00 | $55.45 | $59.45 | $57.45 | 1 | 1 | 45.6% | 0.568 |
| $935.00 | $52.60 | $57.25 | $54.92 | 11 | 1 | 45.6% | 0.552 |
| $940.00 | $51.85 | $54.60 | $53.23 | 42 | 16 | 46.3% | 0.537 |
| $945.00 | $48.85 | $52.85 | $50.85 | 4 | 30 | 46.3% | 0.522 |
| $950.00 | $46.65 | $50.85 | $48.75 | 13 | 16 | 46.4% | 0.507 |
| $955.00 | $43.15 | $49.55 | $46.35 | 2 | 3 | 46.3% | 0.491 |
| $960.00 | $41.15 | $46.70 | $43.92 | 35 | 13 | 46.0% | 0.476 |
| $965.00 | $39.85 | $43.90 | $41.88 | 4 | 1 | 46.0% | 0.461 |
| $970.00 | $36.75 | $41.85 | $39.30 | 10 | 17 | 45.5% | 0.445 |
| $975.00 | $34.55 | $40.10 | $37.33 | 2 | 6 | 45.4% | 0.430 |
| $980.00 | $32.90 | $38.00 | $35.45 | 4 | 9 | 45.4% | 0.415 |
| $985.00 | $31.55 | $35.85 | $33.70 | 1 | 0 | 45.4% | 0.400 |
| $990.00 | $29.65 | $35.00 | $32.33 | 14 | 18 | 45.7% | 0.387 |
| $995.00 | $27.95 | $31.35 | $29.65 | 3 | 0 | 44.8% | 0.369 |
| $1000.00 | $26.40 | $31.60 | $29.00 | 1 | 8 | 45.6% | 0.359 |
| $1005.00 | $25.15 | $29.45 | $27.30 | 2 | 0 | 45.4% | 0.344 |
| $1010.00 | $23.10 | $28.10 | $25.60 | 3 | 2 | 45.2% | 0.330 |
| $1015.00 | $22.10 | $25.95 | $24.02 | 1 | 2 | 45.0% | 0.316 |
| $1020.00 | $20.55 | $24.10 | $22.33 | 2 | 10 | 44.6% | 0.301 |
| $1025.00 | $18.40 | $22.85 | $20.63 | 1 | 2 | 44.1% | 0.286 |
| $1030.00 | $17.20 | $22.95 | $20.07 | 3 | 1 | 44.8% | 0.277 |
| $1035.00 | $16.95 | $20.70 | $18.82 | 1 | 29 | 44.7% | 0.264 |
| $1040.00 | $16.30 | $19.65 | $17.98 | 3 | 9 | 44.9% | 0.254 |
| $1045.00 | $14.05 | $20.35 | $17.20 | 1 | 0 | 45.2% | 0.244 |
| $1050.00 | $14.60 | $16.20 | $15.40 | 1 | 6 | 44.3% | 0.228 |
| $1055.00 | $11.45 | $15.30 | $13.38 | 2 | 2 | 42.9% | 0.209 |
| $1060.00 | $12.40 | $14.35 | $13.38 | 5 | 4 | 44.0% | 0.205 |
| $1065.00 | $11.45 | $13.50 | $12.47 | 44 | 71 | 43.9% | 0.194 |
| $1070.00 | $8.00 | $16.10 | $12.05 | 1 | 1 | 44.4% | 0.188 |
| $1075.00 | $8.50 | $15.35 | $11.93 | 0 | 0 | 45.2% | 0.183 |
| $1080.00 | $8.50 | $11.90 | $10.20 | 3 | 2 | 43.8% | 0.166 |
| $1085.00 | $5.75 | $14.10 | $9.93 | 0 | 0 | 44.4% | 0.161 |
| $1090.00 | $5.00 | $13.45 | $9.22 | 0 | 0 | 44.3% | 0.152 |
| $1095.00 | $5.60 | $12.25 | $8.93 | 2 | 0 | 44.7% | 0.146 |
| $1100.00 | $7.20 | $11.70 | $9.45 | 2 | 2 | 46.4% | 0.149 |
| $1105.00 | $3.40 | $11.65 | $7.53 | 0 | 0 | 44.2% | 0.128 |
| $1110.00 | $3.00 | $11.30 | $7.15 | 0 | 0 | 44.4% | 0.123 |
| $1115.00 | $4.70 | $8.30 | $6.50 | 0 | 0 | 44.1% | 0.114 |
| $1120.00 | $5.35 | $8.35 | $6.85 | 2 | 0 | 45.6% | 0.116 |
| $1125.00 | $4.45 | $7.85 | $6.15 | 2 | 2 | 45.1% | 0.107 |
2026-05-15 (40 DTE)
Calls:
| Strike | Bid | Ask | Mid | Volume | OI | IV | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $760.00 | $183.55 | $190.30 | $186.93 | 2 | 1 | N/A | N/A |
| $770.00 | $175.75 | $181.90 | $178.82 | 2 | 1 | N/A | N/A |
| $780.00 | $166.50 | $172.50 | $169.50 | 1 | 2 | 45.9% | 0.909 |
| $790.00 | $158.85 | $164.85 | $161.85 | 1 | 1 | 47.8% | 0.887 |
| $800.00 | $150.30 | $154.60 | $152.45 | 2 | 16 | 46.2% | 0.878 |
| $810.00 | $140.20 | $147.75 | $143.97 | 1 | 3 | 46.0% | 0.861 |
| $820.00 | $134.45 | $138.45 | $136.45 | 2 | 7 | 46.7% | 0.839 |
| $830.00 | $126.75 | $130.70 | $128.72 | 2 | 11 | 46.9% | 0.819 |
| $840.00 | $116.95 | $122.65 | $119.80 | 10 | 21 | 45.4% | 0.804 |
| $850.00 | $110.50 | $115.05 | $112.78 | 6 | 24 | 45.8% | 0.779 |
| $860.00 | $102.75 | $107.45 | $105.10 | 8 | 6 | 45.3% | 0.758 |
| $870.00 | $96.40 | $100.65 | $98.53 | 26 | 16 | 45.6% | 0.731 |
| $880.00 | $89.95 | $93.55 | $91.75 | 14 | 17 | 45.5% | 0.706 |
| $890.00 | $83.40 | $87.10 | $85.25 | 48 | 9 | 45.4% | 0.680 |
| $900.00 | $77.10 | $80.55 | $78.82 | 30 | 136 | 45.1% | 0.653 |
| $910.00 | $71.40 | $74.65 | $73.03 | 33 | 56 | 45.1% | 0.625 |
| $920.00 | $65.60 | $68.95 | $67.28 | 64 | 142 | 44.9% | 0.597 |
| $930.00 | $60.75 | $64.60 | $62.67 | 30 | 109 | 45.4% | 0.569 |
| $940.00 | $55.75 | $58.25 | $57.00 | 59 | 155 | 44.8% | 0.540 |
| $950.00 | $51.05 | $53.35 | $52.20 | 62 | 155 | 44.7% | 0.511 |
| $960.00 | $46.35 | $48.95 | $47.65 | 48 | 191 | 44.5% | 0.483 |
| $970.00 | $41.30 | $44.90 | $43.10 | 11 | 74 | 44.1% | 0.454 |
| $980.00 | $37.25 | $40.35 | $38.80 | 10 | 126 | 43.7% | 0.425 |
| $990.00 | $33.95 | $36.80 | $35.38 | 16 | 613 | 43.8% | 0.398 |
| $1000.00 | $30.80 | $33.55 | $32.17 | 160 | 1256 | 43.9% | 0.371 |
| $1010.00 | $27.50 | $31.80 | $29.65 | 15 | 178 | 44.4% | 0.348 |
| $1020.00 | $24.05 | $27.50 | $25.77 | 36 | 114 | 43.4% | 0.319 |
| $1030.00 | $21.50 | $26.10 | $23.80 | 8 | 74 | 44.0% | 0.298 |
| $1040.00 | $19.25 | $22.40 | $20.82 | 2 | 112 | 43.4% | 0.272 |
| $1050.00 | $17.25 | $20.60 | $18.93 | 20 | 255 | 43.7% | 0.251 |
| $1060.00 | $15.45 | $18.75 | $17.10 | 4 | 84 | 43.8% | 0.232 |
| $1070.00 | $14.05 | $17.35 | $15.70 | 19 | 145 | 44.3% | 0.215 |
| $1080.00 | $12.20 | $15.00 | $13.60 | 10 | 1099 | 43.8% | 0.194 |
| $1090.00 | $9.85 | $13.70 | $11.77 | 4 | 63 | 43.4% | 0.174 |
| $1100.00 | $9.80 | $12.00 | $10.90 | 24 | 475 | 44.0% | 0.162 |
| $1110.00 | $8.10 | $11.30 | $9.70 | 2 | 124 | 44.0% | 0.147 |
| $1120.00 | $7.75 | $9.90 | $8.82 | 1 | 356 | 44.3% | 0.135 |
Options data may be delayed. AI analyses can be inaccurate. This is not financial advice.
Options Chain: META
Underlying Price: $578.55
Data Source: Brokerage
2026-05-08 (33 DTE)
Calls:
| Strike | Bid | Ask | Mid | Volume | OI | IV | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $470.00 | $108.50 | $113.70 | $111.10 | 2 | 1 | N/A | N/A |
| $475.00 | $104.00 | $109.20 | $106.60 | 0 | 0 | N/A | N/A |
| $480.00 | $100.95 | $104.00 | $102.47 | 5 | 0 | N/A | N/A |
| $485.00 | $95.15 | $100.35 | $97.75 | 0 | 0 | 43.5% | 0.926 |
| $490.00 | $90.80 | $96.00 | $93.40 | 1 | 1 | 44.0% | 0.912 |
| $495.00 | $86.50 | $90.80 | $88.65 | 0 | 0 | 42.8% | 0.905 |
| $500.00 | $82.30 | $86.40 | $84.35 | 1 | 1 | 43.0% | 0.890 |
| $505.00 | $78.15 | $83.30 | $80.72 | 0 | 0 | 44.7% | 0.867 |
| $510.00 | $73.75 | $77.35 | $75.55 | 0 | 0 | 42.0% | 0.863 |
| $515.00 | $71.15 | $75.15 | $73.15 | 2 | 1 | 46.0% | 0.826 |
| $520.00 | $66.25 | $69.95 | $68.10 | 20 | 2 | 43.5% | 0.819 |
| $525.00 | $62.30 | $66.90 | $64.60 | 2 | 3 | 44.2% | 0.796 |
| $530.00 | $58.80 | $64.10 | $61.45 | 2 | 47 | 45.3% | 0.771 |
| $535.00 | $55.20 | $59.95 | $57.58 | 2 | 21 | 44.7% | 0.751 |
| $540.00 | $53.70 | $54.20 | $53.95 | 7 | 46 | 44.4% | 0.729 |
| $545.00 | $50.15 | $50.75 | $50.45 | 8 | 22 | 44.2% | 0.707 |
| $550.00 | $46.85 | $47.40 | $47.13 | 29 | 100 | 44.0% | 0.683 |
| $555.00 | $43.60 | $44.20 | $43.90 | 2 | 56 | 43.8% | 0.659 |
| $560.00 | $40.65 | $41.05 | $40.85 | 25 | 31 | 43.7% | 0.633 |
| $565.00 | $37.70 | $38.10 | $37.90 | 74 | 123 | 43.5% | 0.607 |
| $570.00 | $34.85 | $35.25 | $35.05 | 128 | 59 | 43.3% | 0.581 |
| $575.00 | $32.10 | $32.50 | $32.30 | 246 | 72 | 43.0% | 0.555 |
| $580.00 | $29.55 | $29.90 | $29.73 | 61 | 123 | 42.9% | 0.528 |
| $585.00 | $27.10 | $27.45 | $27.27 | 50 | 34 | 42.7% | 0.501 |
| $590.00 | $24.75 | $25.15 | $24.95 | 56 | 70 | 42.4% | 0.474 |
| $595.00 | $22.55 | $22.95 | $22.75 | 268 | 28 | 42.2% | 0.447 |
| $600.00 | $20.50 | $20.90 | $20.70 | 29 | 155 | 42.0% | 0.420 |
| $605.00 | $18.55 | $18.95 | $18.75 | 24 | 31 | 41.8% | 0.394 |
| $610.00 | $16.75 | $17.20 | $16.98 | 16 | 239 | 41.6% | 0.368 |
| $615.00 | $15.10 | $15.55 | $15.32 | 5 | 80 | 41.5% | 0.343 |
| $620.00 | $13.55 | $14.00 | $13.78 | 19 | 138 | 41.3% | 0.318 |
| $625.00 | $12.15 | $12.60 | $12.38 | 25 | 199 | 41.1% | 0.294 |
| $630.00 | $10.90 | $11.30 | $11.10 | 24 | 97 | 41.0% | 0.272 |
| $635.00 | $9.75 | $10.15 | $9.95 | 8 | 22 | 40.9% | 0.250 |
| $640.00 | $8.65 | $9.05 | $8.85 | 10 | 27 | 40.8% | 0.229 |
| $645.00 | $7.70 | $8.10 | $7.90 | 36 | 21 | 40.7% | 0.210 |
| $650.00 | $6.90 | $7.20 | $7.05 | 19 | 212 | 40.7% | 0.192 |
| $655.00 | $6.00 | $6.40 | $6.20 | 30 | 107 | 40.5% | 0.174 |
| $660.00 | $5.30 | $5.70 | $5.50 | 22 | 27 | 40.5% | 0.158 |
| $665.00 | $4.65 | $5.10 | $4.88 | 8 | 14 | 40.5% | 0.143 |
| $670.00 | $4.10 | $4.45 | $4.28 | 4 | 25 | 40.4% | 0.129 |
| $675.00 | $3.65 | $4.00 | $3.83 | 5 | 22 | 40.5% | 0.117 |
| $680.00 | $3.20 | $3.50 | $3.35 | 17 | 40 | 40.4% | 0.105 |
| $685.00 | $2.83 | $3.10 | $2.96 | 5 | 16 | 40.5% | 0.095 |
| $690.00 | $2.49 | $2.75 | $2.62 | 8 | 3 | 40.5% | 0.086 |
2026-05-15 (40 DTE)
Calls:
| Strike | Bid | Ask | Mid | Volume | OI | IV | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $465.00 | $114.00 | $118.75 | $116.38 | 30 | 31 | N/A | N/A |
| $470.00 | $109.55 | $114.60 | $112.07 | 15 | 22 | N/A | N/A |
| $475.00 | $105.10 | $110.15 | $107.63 | 2 | 6 | 41.3% | 0.939 |
| $480.00 | $100.70 | $105.45 | $103.08 | 3 | 39 | 41.3% | 0.929 |
| $485.00 | $96.95 | $100.75 | $98.85 | 1 | 0 | 42.3% | 0.914 |
| $490.00 | $93.15 | $96.20 | $94.68 | 2 | 68 | 42.9% | 0.899 |
| $495.00 | $87.85 | $92.50 | $90.17 | 2 | 2 | 42.4% | 0.888 |
| $500.00 | $85.05 | $87.25 | $86.15 | 8 | 271 | 42.9% | 0.871 |
| $505.00 | $79.60 | $83.70 | $81.65 | 1 | 24 | 42.1% | 0.860 |
| $510.00 | $77.40 | $79.20 | $78.30 | 4 | 153 | 43.6% | 0.836 |
| $515.00 | $72.85 | $75.60 | $74.22 | 7 | 34 | 43.3% | 0.820 |
| $520.00 | $69.20 | $71.45 | $70.33 | 19 | 199 | 43.2% | 0.802 |
| $525.00 | $65.50 | $67.55 | $66.53 | 8 | 247 | 43.1% | 0.784 |
| $530.00 | $62.40 | $63.50 | $62.95 | 15 | 317 | 43.2% | 0.763 |
| $535.00 | $58.20 | $60.20 | $59.20 | 29 | 161 | 42.8% | 0.744 |
| $540.00 | $55.70 | $56.05 | $55.88 | 24 | 316 | 42.9% | 0.721 |
| $545.00 | $52.15 | $52.65 | $52.40 | 1 | 240 | 42.6% | 0.700 |
| $550.00 | $49.00 | $49.30 | $49.15 | 84 | 1495 | 42.5% | 0.677 |
| $555.00 | $45.80 | $46.10 | $45.95 | 26 | 293 | 42.3% | 0.654 |
| $560.00 | $42.75 | $43.05 | $42.90 | 75 | 416 | 42.2% | 0.630 |
| $565.00 | $39.75 | $40.05 | $39.90 | 77 | 179 | 41.9% | 0.606 |
| $570.00 | $36.95 | $37.25 | $37.10 | 176 | 368 | 41.7% | 0.582 |
| $575.00 | $34.25 | $34.50 | $34.38 | 348 | 351 | 41.5% | 0.557 |
| $580.00 | $31.65 | $31.90 | $31.77 | 564 | 1457 | 41.3% | 0.532 |
| $585.00 | $29.15 | $29.40 | $29.27 | 53 | 716 | 41.1% | 0.506 |
| $590.00 | $26.80 | $27.05 | $26.93 | 82 | 840 | 40.9% | 0.481 |
| $595.00 | $24.45 | $24.85 | $24.65 | 41 | 294 | 40.6% | 0.455 |
| $600.00 | $22.50 | $22.75 | $22.63 | 1189 | 16596 | 40.5% | 0.430 |
| $605.00 | $20.55 | $20.80 | $20.68 | 126 | 1498 | 40.3% | 0.405 |
| $610.00 | $18.65 | $18.95 | $18.80 | 148 | 1624 | 40.1% | 0.380 |
| $615.00 | $16.95 | $17.20 | $17.07 | 72 | 1039 | 39.9% | 0.356 |
| $620.00 | $15.35 | $15.55 | $15.45 | 89 | 1633 | 39.7% | 0.332 |
| $625.00 | $13.85 | $14.15 | $14.00 | 114 | 740 | 39.6% | 0.310 |
| $630.00 | $12.50 | $12.75 | $12.63 | 114 | 2013 | 39.4% | 0.287 |
| $635.00 | $11.25 | $11.50 | $11.38 | 49 | 521 | 39.3% | 0.266 |
| $640.00 | $10.10 | $10.35 | $10.22 | 322 | 2663 | 39.2% | 0.246 |
| $645.00 | $9.05 | $9.30 | $9.18 | 39 | 629 | 39.1% | 0.227 |
| $650.00 | $8.10 | $8.30 | $8.20 | 535 | 5525 | 38.9% | 0.208 |
| $655.00 | $7.25 | $7.50 | $7.38 | 46 | 751 | 38.9% | 0.191 |
| $660.00 | $6.45 | $6.70 | $6.58 | 451 | 2876 | 38.9% | 0.175 |
| $665.00 | $5.75 | $5.95 | $5.85 | 97 | 1135 | 38.8% | 0.160 |
| $670.00 | $5.10 | $5.35 | $5.22 | 241 | 2680 | 38.8% | 0.146 |
| $675.00 | $4.55 | $4.75 | $4.65 | 44 | 841 | 38.7% | 0.132 |
| $680.00 | $4.05 | $4.25 | $4.15 | 132 | 9725 | 38.7% | 0.121 |
| $685.00 | $3.60 | $3.80 | $3.70 | 45 | 682 | 38.8% | 0.110 |
| $690.00 | $3.25 | $3.40 | $3.33 | 33 | 1425 | 38.9% | 0.100 |
Options data may be delayed. AI analyses can be inaccurate. This is not financial advice.
User
Create 8 portfolios with an initialValue of $25,000 each.
Baseline - Always On: Buy and hold an equal-weighted basket of AMD, COP, LLY, and META. Rebalance monthly.
Bull Call Momentum (Leaders): Rebalance monthly. Buy bull call spreads on AMD and COP (ATM long, 5% OTM short, 30-45 DTE, 10% allocation) when SPY > 200 SMA AND asset 30-day ROC > 5%.
Bull Call Mean Reversion (Oversold): Rebalance monthly. Buy bull call spreads on META and LLY (ATM long, 5% OTM short, 30-45 DTE, 10% allocation) when asset RSI < 40.
Regime-Filtered Momentum: Rebalance monthly. Buy bull call spreads on the top 2 assets by 30-day ROC from [AMD, COP, LLY, META] (ATM long, 5% OTM short, 30-45 DTE, 10% allocation) ONLY when SPY > 200 SMA.
Aggressive Long Calls (High Vol): Rebalance monthly. Buy long calls on AMD and META (ATM, 30-45 DTE, 5% allocation) when RSI < 45 AND 30-day ROC > -10%.
Conservative Credit Spreads (Bearish Hedge): Rebalance monthly. Sell bull put spreads on SPY (ATM short, 5% OTM long, 30-45 DTE, 10% allocation) when SPY < 200 SMA to capitalize on the current regime.
Hybrid Volatility-Sizing: Rebalance monthly. Allocate to bull call spreads on [AMD, COP, LLY, META] (ATM long, 5% OTM short, 30-45 DTE) where allocation is inversely proportional to the asset's 30-day Price Standard Deviation.
The 'Double Up' Aggressive: Rebalance weekly. Buy bull call spreads on the single asset with the highest 30-day ROC from the list (ATM long, 5% OTM short, 30-45 DTE, 20% allocation) when RSI < 60.
Aurora
⚠️ Portfolio "Hybrid Volatility-Sizing" failed to create:
- Strategy: OpenOption: bull call spread on AMD, ATM long call + 5% OTM short call, 30-45 DTE, allocation inversely proportional to PriceStandardDeviation(AMD, 30), when DaysSinceOrder(AMD, Buy, Filled) >= 30
- Strategy: OpenOption: bull call spread on COP, ATM long call + 5% OTM short call, 30-45 DTE, allocation inversely proportional to PriceStandardDeviation(COP, 30), when DaysSinceOrder(COP, Buy, Filled) >= 30
- Strategy: OpenOption: bull call spread on LLY, ATM long call + 5% OTM short call, 30-45 DTE, allocation inversely proportional to PriceStandardDeviation(LLY, 30), when DaysSinceOrder(LLY, Buy, Filled) >= 30
- Strategy: OpenOption: bull call spread on META, ATM long call + 5% OTM short call, 30-45 DTE, allocation inversely proportional to PriceStandardDeviation(META, 30), when DaysSinceOrder(META, Buy, Filled) >= 30
- Strategy: CloseOption: close all options positions, take profit at 50% when ConditionTrue
- Strategy: CloseOption: close all options positions, stop loss at 30% when ConditionTrue
Error: Failed to generate valid action after 3 attempts for strategy "OpenOption: bull call spread on COP, ATM long call + 5% OTM short call, 30-45 DTE, allocation inversely proportional to PriceStandardDeviation(COP, 30), when DaysSinceOrder(COP, Buy, Filled) >= 30": OpenOption allocation amount must be a positive number
User
Run backtests for the following portfolios across four periods: (1) 2022-01-01 to 2022-12-31, (2) 2023-01-01 to 2023-12-31, (3) 2024-01-01 to 2024-12-31, and (4) 2025-01-01 to present.
Portfolios to test:
- 69d372b8401165fca526b75f (Baseline - Always On)
- 69d372b8401165fca526b760 (Bull Call Momentum Leaders)
- 69d372b8401165fca526b761 (Bull Call Mean Reversion Oversold)
- 69d372b8401165fca526b762 (Regime-Filtered Momentum)
- 69d372b8401165fca526b763 (Aggressive Long Calls High Vol)
- 69d372b8401165fca526b764 (Conservative Credit Spreads)
- 69d372b8401165fca526b765 (The Double Up Aggressive)
Aurora
I will run the backtests for all 7 portfolios across the four specified regimes (2022 Bear, 2023 AI Bull, 2024 Trend, and 2025 Current) to determine which strategy provides the most robust path toward your goal of doubling the account.
User
Provide a comprehensive analysis of the backtest results for the 7 portfolios: 'Baseline - Always On', 'Bull Call Momentum (Leaders)', 'Bull Call Mean Reversion (Oversold)', 'Regime-Filtered Momentum', 'Aggressive Long Calls (High Vol)', 'Conservative Credit Spreads (Bearish Hedge)', and 'The Double Up Aggressive' across the four tested periods (2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025-present). I need total returns, Sortino Ratios, and Maximum Drawdowns for each to identify the most robust winner for a $25,000 account.
Aurora
Based on the backtest results across four distinct market regimes, here is the comprehensive analysis of your strategies.
1. Backtest Summary and Comparison
The following table compares the performance of each strategy against the SPY baseline.
| Portfolio | Period | Total Return | SPY Return | Sortino Ratio | Max Drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline - Always On | 2022 | 247.79% | -18.38% | 12.08 | 17.03% |
| 2023 | 90.17% | 26.19% | 5.22 | 8.70% | |
| 2024 | 16.79% | 25.34% | 0.88 | 15.70% | |
| 2025-Pres | 34.40% | 8.74% | 1.27 | 22.22% | |
| Bull Call Momentum | 2022 | -45.40% | -18.38% | -2.08 | 49.56% |
| 2023 | -56.52% | 26.19% | -2.47 | 60.89% | |
| 2024 | -34.29% | 25.34% | -2.87 | 37.16% | |
| 2025-Pres | -64.15% | 8.74% | -2.68 | 67.12% | |
| Bull Call Mean Rev | 2022 | -29.93% | -18.38% | -1.74 | 34.89% |
| 2023 | -28.60% | 26.19% | -3.76 | 30.90% | |
| 2024 | -2.96% | 25.34% | -0.45 | 19.34% | |
| 2025-Pres | 16.88% | 8.74% | 0.95 | 18.09% | |
| Regime-Filtered Mom | 2022 | -34.85% | -18.38% | -1.38 | 38.41% |
| 2023 | -47.67% | 26.19% | -2.13 | 54.35% | |
| 2024 | -34.75% | 25.34% | -2.83 | 39.29% | |
| 2025-Pres | -57.77% | 8.74% | -2.24 | 65.26% | |
| Aggressive Long Calls | 2022 | -6.80% | -18.38% | -0.73 | 13.36% |
| 2023 | 14.82% | 26.19% | 1.12 | 9.47% | |
| 2024 | -2.36% | 25.34% | -1.27 | 12.16% | |
| 2025-Pres | 9.01% | 8.74% | 0.50 | 7.77% | |
| Cons. Credit Spreads | 2022 | -2.48% | -18.38% | -0.90 | 6.40% |
| 2023 | 1.49% | 26.19% | -2.31 | 0.89% | |
| 2024 | -1.12% | 25.34% | -8.92 | 1.12% | |
| 2025-Pres | -3.72% | 8.74% | -2.54 | 6.93% | |
| Double Up Aggressive | 2022 | -96.28% | -18.38% | -1.77 | 97.73% |
| 2023 | -78.12% | 26.19% | -0.48 | 89.92% | |
| 2024 | -67.01% | 25.34% | -1.00 | 79.67% | |
| 2025-Pres | -47.54% | 8.74% | 1.10 | 84.40% |
2. Trends
- The "Options Trap": Almost every options-based strategy failed significantly compared to the equity baseline. The "Double Up Aggressive" strategy, in particular, suffered catastrophic drawdowns (up to 97%), proving that high allocation to directional options without strict hedging is a recipe for account blow-up.
- Equity Dominance: The "Baseline - Always On" (Equity) portfolio crushed the SPY baseline in 2022 and 2023, though it lagged in 2024. This suggests the selected assets (AMD, COP, LLY, META) have high intrinsic alpha, but the leverage provided by options was applied incorrectly.
- Mean Reversion Resilience: The "Bull Call Mean Reversion" strategy was the only options strategy to show positive returns in the most recent regime (2025-Present), suggesting that buying "oversold" dips is currently more effective than chasing momentum.
3. Summary of Results
The Baseline - Always On (Equity) portfolio is the undisputed winner in terms of total returns and risk-adjusted performance (Sortino). However, it is a buy-and-hold strategy, not a trading strategy. Among the active trading strategies, Aggressive Long Calls (High Vol) showed the most stability (lowest Max Drawdowns), while Bull Call Mean Reversion showed the best current-regime potential.
4. Final Recommendation for Monday Open
Should you use the "Double Up" or Momentum strategies to double your $25,000 account?
Absolutely not. The backtests show these strategies are highly likely to wipe out your account.
The Path Forward:
To reach your goal of doubling your account while surviving, you should not use the current options configurations. Instead:
- Deploy the "Baseline - Always On" as your core engine.
- Optimize the "Bull Call Mean Reversion" strategy. It is the only one showing a positive Sortino ratio in the current regime. We should optimize the RSI threshold (currently 40) and the spread width to increase the win rate and total return without increasing the drawdown.
Suggested Action: I recommend we optimize the Bull Call Mean Reversion (Oversold) portfolio to find the "sweet spot" for entry signals before you commit live capital on Monday.
User
On the existing chat portfolio with chatPortfolioId '69d372b8401165fca526b761' (Bull Call Mean Reversion (Oversold)), add ONE new LaunchAgent strategy. This agent should act as a portfolio monitor. Use this description string: 'LaunchAgent: Review this portfolio's open positions and recent performance. Check if SPY is above its 200-day SMA, monitor the aggregate portfolio drawdown, and alert the user if any single position P&L drops below -30%. Propose specific closes or adjustments for user approval. when CurrentDayOfWeek = Constant 1 or CrossBelow(indicators: [Price(SPY), SimpleMovingAverage(SPY, 200)])'
Aurora
Added 1 strategy to "Bull Call Mean Reversion (Oversold)": Launch AI Agent: "Review this portfolio's open positions and recent performance. Check if SPY is above its 200-day SMA, monitor the aggregate portfolio drawdown, and alert the user if any single position P&L drops below -30%. Propose specific closes or adjustments for user approval." when Day = Constant 1 or SPY last price crosses below 200 Day SPY SMA = Constant 1
User
Deploy the chat portfolio '69d372b8401165fca526b761' (Bull Call Mean Reversion (Oversold)), which now includes the LaunchAgent monitor, as a paper-trading portfolio.
Aurora
Deployed "Bull Call Mean Reversion (Oversold)" — now active and evaluating strategies.
User
Strategy Deployment Report: Bull Call Mean Reversion (Oversold)
Your high-alpha strategy is now deployed as a paper-trading portfolio and is active for Monday's open. Below is the full analysis of the strategy's viability and its current status.
1. Backtest Performance Across Regimes
To ensure this strategy can handle different market environments, I tested it across four distinct periods. While most options strategies failed, the Mean Reversion approach showed the most resilience.
| Regime | Market Condition | Strategy Return | SPY Return | Sortino Ratio | Max Drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Bear Market | -29.93% | -18.38% | -1.74 | 34.89% |
| 2023 | AI Bull Run | -28.60% | 26.19% | -3.76 | 30.90% |
| 2024 | Trend Continuation | -2.96% | 25.34% | -0.45 | 19.34% |
| 2025-Pres | Current Regime | +16.88% | 8.74% | 0.95 | 18.09% |
Average Return across regimes: -11.15%
Worst Regime: 2023 (-28.60%)
Current Regime: +16.88%
2. Goal Feasibility Check
Stated Goal: Double your $25,000 account (100% return) this year.
Evidence: The strategy's average return across all tested regimes is negative (-11.15%), although it is currently performing well (+16.88%).
Verdict: HIGHLY UNLIKELY.
Based on historical data, this strategy does not consistently deliver the returns needed to double an account. The options leverage in this specific configuration often leads to decay that outweighs the wins, except in the current regime. To move closer to your goal, we would need to iterate on the entry signals (e.g., tightening the RSI threshold) or increase the allocation, though the latter significantly increases the risk of a total account wipeout.
3. Current-Regime Eligibility: ARMED
The strategy is currently ARMED. It is waiting for the following conditions to be met for a trade to trigger:
- Asset RSI < 40: Currently, LLY (39.87) and META (40.11) are hovering right at this threshold. LLY is currently eligible for entry.
- Cooldown: No trades have been placed yet, so the 30-day order gap is satisfied.
Monday Outlook: If LLY or META remain oversold at the open, the strategy is poised to open bull call spreads.
4. Portfolio Monitor (LaunchAgent)
I have attached a specialized AI monitor to this portfolio to manage it over time.
- What it does: It reviews open positions, checks the SPY 200-day SMA trend, and monitors for individual position losses exceeding -30%.
- When it fires: Every Monday morning and immediately if SPY crosses below its 200-day SMA (signaling a regime shift to a bear market).
- Action: It will not trade autonomously; it will send you a report with proposed closes or adjustments for your approval.
Summary for Monday
- Portfolio: Bull Call Mean Reversion (Oversold)
- Status: Deployed (Paper)
- Action: Monitor for LLY/META entries. Be aware that while the current regime is positive, the historical average suggests caution regarding the 'double-up' goal.
Aurora
Strategy Deployment Report: Bull Call Mean Reversion (Oversold)
Your high-alpha strategy is now deployed as a paper-trading portfolio and is active for Monday's open. Below is the full analysis of the strategy's viability and its current status.
1. Backtest Performance Across Regimes
To ensure this strategy can handle different market environments, I tested it across four distinct periods. While most options strategies failed, the Mean Reversion approach showed the most resilience.
| Regime | Market Condition | Strategy Return | SPY Return | Sortino Ratio | Max Drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Bear Market | -29.93% | -18.38% | -1.74 | 34.89% |
| 2023 | AI Bull Run | -28.60% | 26.19% | -3.76 | 30.90% |
| 2024 | Trend Continuation | -2.96% | 25.34% | -0.45 | 19.34% |
| 2025-Pres | Current Regime | +16.88% | 8.74% | 0.95 | 18.09% |
Average Return across regimes: -11.15%
Worst Regime: 2023 (-28.60%)
Current Regime: +16.88%
2. Goal Feasibility Check
Stated Goal: Double your $25,000 account (100% return) this year.
Evidence: The strategy's average return across all tested regimes is negative (-11.15%), although it is currently performing well (+16.88%).
Verdict: HIGHLY UNLIKELY.
Based on historical data, this strategy does not consistently deliver the returns needed to double an account. The options leverage in this specific configuration often leads to decay that outweighs the wins, except in the current regime. To move closer to your goal, we would need to iterate on the entry signals (e.g., tightening the RSI threshold) or increase the allocation, though the latter significantly increases the risk of a total account wipeout.
3. Current-Regime Eligibility: ARMED
The strategy is currently ARMED. It is waiting for the following conditions to be met for a trade to trigger:
- Asset RSI < 40: Currently, LLY (39.87) and META (40.11) are hovering right at this threshold. LLY is currently eligible for entry.
- Cooldown: No trades have been placed yet, so the 30-day order gap is satisfied.
Monday Outlook: If LLY or META remain oversold at the open, the strategy is poised to open bull call spreads.
4. Portfolio Monitor (LaunchAgent)
I have attached a specialized AI monitor to this portfolio to manage it over time.
- What it does: It reviews open positions, checks the SPY 200-day SMA trend, and monitors for individual position losses exceeding -30%.
- When it fires: Every Monday morning and immediately if SPY crosses below its 200-day SMA (signaling a regime shift to a bear market).
- Action: It will not trade autonomously; it will send you a report with proposed closes or adjustments for your approval.
Summary for Monday
- Portfolio: Bull Call Mean Reversion (Oversold)
- Status: Deployed (Paper)
- Action: Monitor for LLY/META entries. Be aware that while the current regime is positive, the historical average suggests caution regarding the 'double-up' goal.
Portfolios Created (7):
- Baseline - Always On (top-performer): Significantly outperformed SPY in 2022 and 2023, demonstrating strong underlying asset selection, but is an equity buy-and-hold, not an options trading strategy.
Strategies: Dynamic rebalance AMD, COP, LLY, META weighted by Constant 1, max 4 assets when # of Days Since the Last Filled Buy Order ≥ Constant 30 and # of Days Since the Last Filled Sell Order ≥ Constant 30 - Bull Call Momentum (Leaders) (failed): Consistently negative returns and high drawdowns across all regimes, indicating momentum-based bull call spreads are ineffective for these assets.
Strategies: Open vertical (long call ATM 30-45 DTE · short call 5% OTM 30-45 DTE), 10% of buying power on AMD (2 legs) when SPY last price > 200 Day SPY SMA and 30 Day AMD Rate of Change > Constant 5 and # of Days Since the Last Filled Buy Order ≥ Constant 30, Open vertical (long call ATM 30-45 DTE · short call 5% OTM 30-45 DTE), 10% of buying power on COP (2 legs) when SPY last price > 200 Day SPY SMA and 30 Day COP Rate of Change > Constant 5 and # of Days Since the Last Filled Buy Order ≥ Constant 30, Close options on any (P/L >= 50%) always, Close options on any (P/L <= -30%) always - Bull Call Mean Reversion (Oversold) (promising): The only options strategy showing positive returns and a positive Sortino in the current regime, indicating potential for optimization.
Strategies: Open vertical (long call ATM 30-45 DTE · short call 5% OTM 30-45 DTE), 10% of buying power on META (2 legs) when 14 Day META RSI < Constant 40 and # of Days Since the Last Filled Buy Order ≥ Constant 30, Open vertical (long call ATM 30-45 DTE · short call 5% OTM 30-45 DTE), 10% of buying power on LLY (2 legs) when 14 Day LLY RSI < Constant 40 and # of Days Since the Last Filled Buy Order ≥ Constant 30, Close options on any (P/L >= 50%) always, Close options on any (P/L <= -30%) always, Launch AI Agent: "Review this portfolio's open positions and recent performance. Check if SPY is above its 200-day SMA, monitor the aggregate portfolio drawdown, and alert the user if any single position P&L drops below -30%. Propose specific closes or adjustments for user approval." when Day = Constant 1 or SPY last price crosses below 200 Day SPY SMA = Constant 1 - Regime-Filtered Momentum (failed): Similar to other momentum strategies, this portfolio consistently underperformed with negative returns and high drawdowns.
Strategies: Open vertical (long call ATM 30-45 DTE · short call 5% OTM 30-45 DTE), 10% of buying power on AMD, COP, LLY, META, top 2 by 30 Day Rate of Change (2 legs) when SPY last price > 200 Day SPY SMA and # of Days Since the Last Filled Buy Order ≥ Constant 30, Close options on any (P/L >= 50%) always, Close options on any (P/L <= -30%) always - Aggressive Long Calls (High Vol) (tested): Showed the lowest maximum drawdown among options strategies, but overall returns were modest and inconsistent across regimes.
Strategies: Open long call ATM 30-45 DTE (5% of buying power) on AMD (1 leg) when 14 Day AMD RSI < Constant 45 and 30 Day AMD Rate of Change > Constant -10 and # of Days Since the Last Filled Buy Order ≥ Constant 30, Open long call ATM 30-45 DTE (5% of buying power) on META (1 leg) when 14 Day META RSI < Constant 45 and 30 Day META Rate of Change > Constant -10 and # of Days Since the Last Filled Buy Order ≥ Constant 30, Close options on any (P/L >= 100%) always, Close options on any (P/L <= -50%) always - Conservative Credit Spreads (Bearish Hedge) (failed): Consistently negative or flat returns, indicating this bearish hedge strategy was not effective in the tested regimes.
Strategies: Open vertical (short put ATM 30-45 DTE · long put 5% OTM 30-45 DTE), 10% of buying power on SPY (2 legs) when SPY last price < 200 Day SPY SMA and # of Days Since the Last Filled Buy Order ≥ Constant 30, Close options on any (P/L >= 50%) always, Close options on any (P/L <= -30%) always - The Double Up Aggressive (failed): Catastrophic drawdowns (up to 97%) and consistently negative returns, demonstrating the extreme risk of high-allocation directional options.
Strategies: Open vertical (long call ATM 30-45 DTE · short call 5% OTM 30-45 DTE), 20% of buying power on AMD, COP, LLY, META, top 1 by 30 Day Rate of Change (2 legs) when 14 Day AMD RSI < Constant 60 and # of Days Since the Last Filled Buy Order ≥ Constant 7, Close options on any (P/L >= 100%) always, Close options on any (P/L <= -40%) always