Shared agent run
AI Bakeoff: Gemini 3 Flash Preview
Options trading strategy experiment using Gemini 3 Flash Preview (Score: 66, Winner)
Read the conversation below. Open the interactive view for charts, attachments, and continuing this run.
User
Look at my watchlist and current market conditions, design a profitable options trading strategy that I should use at Monday at open. My goal is to double my $25,000 Public Portfolio live-trading account this year.
Aurora
To design a strategy specifically for your $25,000 Public Portfolio that aims to double this year, I need to look at what you're watching and what the market is doing right now. This is a research-first options exploration (Category 4b) with live-deployment intent and a high growth goal. I will research your watchlist, analyze the current regime, and then use specialized subagents to find the best options structure for Monday's open.
The Core Question
Based on your current watchlist and the prevailing market regime, which options structure—long premium, vertical spreads, or credit spreads—offers the best path to 100% annual returns on a $25,000 account, and is this goal feasible given current volatility?
Plan
Step 1: Fetch Watchlist and Portfolio Context
I will retrieve your saved watchlists to identify the tickers you are interested in and fetch your "Public Portfolio" to confirm its current state.
Tools: Fetch User Watchlists, Fetch User Portfolios
Step 2: Market Regime and Watchlist Analysis
I will query the current market state (SPY trend vs. 200-day SMA, VIX level, realized volatility) and perform a technical/fundamental sweep of your watchlist symbols (RSI, earnings dates, 30-day momentum). This grounds the strategy in today's reality.
Tool: Stock Screener
Step 3: Options Chain Research
For the top 3-5 symbols from your watchlist, I will pull real-time options chain data (IV, Greeks, and pricing for 30-45 DTE) to ensure the strategies we test are based on current market pricing.
Tool: Options Chain Viewer
Step 4: Parallel Options Exploration (Subagents)
I will spawn specialized optionsStrategy subagents to explore distinct theses based on the research:
- Subagent A (Directional Growth): Focuses on long calls or bull call spreads for the strongest momentum names on your watchlist.
- Subagent B (Income/Premium): Focuses on defined-risk credit spreads if the regime is high-volatility/neutral.
- Subagent C (Volatility Plays): Explores straddles/strangles if earnings or major catalysts are imminent for your watched stocks.
All subagents will be constrained to a $25,000 initial value.
Step 5: Backtest Winning Candidates
I will take the top 2-3 strategies from the subagents and backtest them across multiple regimes (2022 bear, 2023 recovery, 2024 trend, and current) to ensure they are robust and not just lucky in the short term.
Tool: Backtest Portfolios
Step 6: Analyze, Monitor, and Deploy
I will identify the winner based on risk-adjusted returns (Sortino) and drawdown. I will then:
- Attach a LaunchAgent Monitor: Add an automated watchdog strategy to the portfolio that reviews positions weekly or if a regime flip occurs (SPY < 200 SMA), ensuring the portfolio "reacts if the market turns."
- Deploy: Activate the augmented strategy in your Public Portfolio for Monday's open.
Tools:Read Backtest,Edit Portfolio
Step 7: Final Assessment (Feasibility & Eligibility)
In my final response, I will perform a Goal Feasibility Check (comparing the strategy's average historical return to your 100% goal) and a Current-Regime Eligibility Check (confirming if filters are active for Monday's open). I will flag any gaps between the goal and historical reality clearly.
I am starting with your watchlist and market research now.
User
List all of my saved watchlists and the symbols within them.
Aurora
Here is your 1 watchlist, in the same order as in the app:
1. All my favorites
META (stock), GOOG (stock), NVDA (stock), BTC-USD (crypto), HOOD (stock), LLY (stock), SPY (stock), QQQ (stock), AMD (stock), AVGO (stock), TSM (stock), ANET (stock), GS (stock), DUOL (stock), XOM (stock), COP (stock), POWL (stock)
User
Find the portfolio named 'Public Portfolio' and retrieve its current value, buying power, and any existing positions.
Aurora
Performance Summary
| Name | Type | Total Return (%) | Sharpe Ratio | Max Drawdown (%) | Alpha vs Benchmark (%) | Current Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Portfolio | Paper | 0.00% | -1.00 | 0.00% | -3.78% | $25,000.00 |
| Public Portfolio Challenge | Live | 0.00% | -1.00 | 0.00% | 3.31% | $25,000.00 |
Position Analysis
Public Portfolio
- Top Holdings: None (100% Cash/Buying Power).
- Concentration Risk: None currently.
- Intended Strategy Fundamentals: Your active strategies target several high-growth tickers. Based on the provided data:
- NVDA: Exceptional growth with a Revenue CAGR of 68.3% and Net Income CAGR of 87.3%. It maintains a P/E of 36.1, which is high but supported by its growth profile.
- AVGO: Trading at a premium P/E of 61.6 with a Revenue CAGR of 23.5%. It carries significant Total Debt of $65.1B.
- LLY: High valuation with a P/E of 40.7 but strong Revenue CAGR of 23.2%.
- META: More moderate valuation at a P/E of 24.5 with a healthy Revenue CAGR of 14.3% and $46.1B in Free Cash Flow.
- MSFT: Solid fundamentals with a P/E of 23.4 and Revenue CAGR of 9.2%.
Public Portfolio Challenge
- Top Holdings: None (100% Cash/Buying Power).
- Concentration Risk: None currently.
Key Insights
- Idle Status: Both portfolios are currently 100% in cash with no open positions. The "Public Portfolio" has underperformed the SPY benchmark by 3.78% simply by remaining uninvested during a market rally.
- Strategy Design: Your strategies are heavily weighted toward Bull Call Spreads on mega-cap tech and healthcare. This alignment targets high-momentum, high-growth stocks like NVDA and LLY, which is consistent with a goal of aggressive account growth.
- Valuation Warning: AVGO stands out with the highest valuation (P/E 61.6) and significant debt. If the market rotates away from high-multiple tech, this position may face higher volatility than META or MSFT.
- Risk Management: Your strategies include automated exit rules (e.g., Close at 50% P/L or -30% P/L), which is critical for a $25,000 account attempting to double, as it prevents single-trade catastrophes.
Portfolio Status: Public Portfolio
To answer your specific request regarding the Public Portfolio:
- Current Value: $25,000.00
- Buying Power: $25,000.00 (No capital is currently deployed).
- Existing Positions: None.
The portfolio is ready for deployment on Monday at open, provided your strategy entry triggers (like RSI < 40 or Price < Bollinger Band) are met.
User
Analyze the current market regime and watchlist technicals. 1. Get the current price and 200-day SMA for SPY and the current VIX level. 2. For the following tickers: META, GOOG, NVDA, HOOD, LLY, QQQ, AMD, AVGO, TSM, ANET, GS, DUOL, XOM, COP, POWL, provide their current price, 14-day RSI, 30-day price momentum, 90-day price momentum, distance from 52-week high, and the date of their next earnings report. This information will be used to design a profitable options strategy for Monday's open.
User
Show me the options chains for NVDA, META, LLY, COP, and QQQ for 30-45 days to expiration (DTE). Include pricing, implied volatility (IV), and Greeks for both calls and puts.
Aurora
Options Chain: NVDA
Underlying Price: $176.70
Data Source: Brokerage
2026-05-08 (33 DTE)
Calls:
| Strike | Bid | Ask | Mid | Volume | OI | IV | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $145.00 | $33.00 | $34.35 | $33.67 | 26 | 51 | N/A | N/A |
| $150.00 | $28.55 | $29.65 | $29.10 | 34 | 89 | N/A | N/A |
| $155.00 | $24.10 | $24.85 | $24.48 | 2 | 126 | 48.2% | 0.842 |
| $160.00 | $19.90 | $20.60 | $20.25 | 33 | 161 | 45.8% | 0.793 |
| $165.00 | $16.00 | $16.50 | $16.25 | 16 | 482 | 43.3% | 0.732 |
| $170.00 | $12.60 | $12.75 | $12.68 | 139 | 557 | 41.4% | 0.656 |
| $175.00 | $9.35 | $9.45 | $9.40 | 404 | 823 | 39.2% | 0.567 |
| $180.00 | $6.55 | $6.65 | $6.60 | 634 | 1233 | 37.1% | 0.468 |
| $185.00 | $4.30 | $4.45 | $4.38 | 1726 | 1437 | 35.3% | 0.363 |
| $190.00 | $2.69 | $2.73 | $2.71 | 1005 | 2106 | 33.8% | 0.263 |
| $195.00 | $1.58 | $1.63 | $1.60 | 2225 | 1787 | 32.8% | 0.179 |
| $200.00 | $0.90 | $0.94 | $0.92 | 511 | 1474 | 32.3% | 0.115 |
| $205.00 | $0.52 | $0.55 | $0.54 | 325 | 1178 | 32.3% | 0.073 |
| $210.00 | $0.31 | $0.35 | $0.33 | 237 | 385 | 32.9% | 0.047 |
Puts:
| Strike | Bid | Ask | Mid | Volume | OI | IV | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $145.00 | $0.77 | $0.80 | $0.79 | 490 | 520 | N/A | N/A |
| $150.00 | $1.12 | $1.17 | $1.15 | 595 | 615 | 45.2% | -0.096 |
| $155.00 | $1.62 | $1.67 | $1.65 | 377 | 925 | 43.2% | -0.135 |
| $160.00 | $2.34 | $2.40 | $2.37 | 381 | 1453 | 41.4% | -0.187 |
| $165.00 | $3.30 | $3.40 | $3.35 | 837 | 743 | 39.5% | -0.252 |
| $170.00 | $4.60 | $4.70 | $4.65 | 404 | 3755 | 37.5% | -0.334 |
| $175.00 | $6.35 | $6.45 | $6.40 | 385 | 510 | 35.7% | -0.431 |
| $180.00 | $8.55 | $8.65 | $8.60 | 452 | 1095 | 33.7% | -0.540 |
| $185.00 | $11.30 | $11.45 | $11.38 | 9 | 82 | 31.8% | -0.655 |
| $190.00 | $14.40 | $15.25 | $14.82 | 62 | 490 | 30.5% | -0.762 |
| $195.00 | $18.10 | $18.90 | $18.50 | 20 | 27 | 26.7% | -0.875 |
| $200.00 | $22.45 | $23.90 | $23.17 | 6 | 783 | 28.1% | -0.918 |
| $205.00 | $27.10 | $28.60 | $27.85 | 6 | 33 | 27.2% | -0.960 |
| $210.00 | $31.75 | $33.60 | $32.67 | 8 | 110 | 25.6% | -0.985 |
2026-05-15 (40 DTE)
Calls:
| Strike | Bid | Ask | Mid | Volume | OI | IV | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $145.00 | $33.95 | $34.75 | $34.35 | 34 | 2354 | N/A | N/A |
| $150.00 | $29.10 | $29.90 | $29.50 | 172 | 7739 | 50.4% | 0.863 |
| $155.00 | $24.80 | $25.75 | $25.27 | 137 | 1501 | 48.7% | 0.822 |
| $160.00 | $20.65 | $21.25 | $20.95 | 238 | 7962 | 45.2% | 0.779 |
| $165.00 | $16.85 | $17.30 | $17.08 | 158 | 3393 | 43.1% | 0.719 |
| $170.00 | $13.50 | $13.65 | $13.57 | 983 | 12757 | 41.5% | 0.648 |
| $175.00 | $10.30 | $10.40 | $10.35 | 5208 | 19717 | 39.4% | 0.568 |
| $180.00 | $7.55 | $7.65 | $7.60 | 6610 | 41206 | 37.7% | 0.478 |
| $185.00 | $5.25 | $5.35 | $5.30 | 2526 | 36620 | 36.0% | 0.385 |
| $190.00 | $3.50 | $3.60 | $3.55 | 8057 | 61122 | 34.8% | 0.295 |
| $195.00 | $2.25 | $2.29 | $2.27 | 6083 | 71944 | 33.8% | 0.214 |
| $200.00 | $1.39 | $1.42 | $1.40 | 7561 | 93409 | 33.1% | 0.148 |
| $205.00 | $0.86 | $0.88 | $0.87 | 1700 | 10132 | 32.8% | 0.100 |
| $210.00 | $0.53 | $0.56 | $0.55 | 920 | 33350 | 33.0% | 0.067 |
Puts:
| Strike | Bid | Ask | Mid | Volume | OI | IV | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $145.00 | $1.11 | $1.14 | $1.13 | 3478 | 27065 | N/A | N/A |
| $150.00 | $1.55 | $1.58 | $1.56 | 12485 | 41287 | 45.1% | -0.115 |
| $155.00 | $2.15 | $2.19 | $2.17 | 2507 | 32745 | 43.3% | -0.154 |
| $160.00 | $2.98 | $3.00 | $2.99 | 3606 | 39150 | 41.5% | -0.205 |
| $165.00 | $4.00 | $4.10 | $4.05 | 1911 | 20917 | 39.7% | -0.268 |
| $170.00 | $5.40 | $5.50 | $5.45 | 4542 | 32449 | 38.0% | -0.343 |
| $175.00 | $7.15 | $7.25 | $7.20 | 4524 | 28869 | 36.2% | -0.431 |
| $180.00 | $9.40 | $9.50 | $9.45 | 3262 | 40482 | 34.6% | -0.528 |
| $185.00 | $12.10 | $12.25 | $12.18 | 493 | 18064 | 33.0% | -0.630 |
| $190.00 | $15.30 | $15.80 | $15.55 | 1189 | 10541 | 32.1% | -0.724 |
| $195.00 | $18.75 | $19.75 | $19.25 | 148 | 7458 | 30.5% | -0.813 |
| $200.00 | $23.30 | $23.70 | $23.50 | 74 | 6473 | 29.9% | -0.878 |
| $205.00 | $27.30 | $28.80 | $28.05 | 2 | 411 | 29.7% | -0.923 |
| $210.00 | $32.00 | $33.50 | $32.75 | 118 | 2465 | 29.1% | -0.956 |
Options data may be delayed. AI analyses can be inaccurate. This is not financial advice.
Options Chain: META
Underlying Price: $574.78
Data Source: Brokerage
2026-05-08 (33 DTE)
Calls:
| Strike | Bid | Ask | Mid | Volume | OI | IV | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $460.00 | $116.20 | $123.50 | $119.85 | 0 | 0 | N/A | N/A |
| $470.00 | $108.50 | $113.70 | $111.10 | 2 | 1 | N/A | N/A |
| $475.00 | $104.00 | $109.20 | $106.60 | 0 | 0 | N/A | N/A |
| $480.00 | $100.95 | $104.00 | $102.47 | 5 | 0 | N/A | N/A |
| $485.00 | $95.15 | $100.35 | $97.75 | 0 | 0 | N/A | N/A |
| $490.00 | $90.80 | $96.00 | $93.40 | 1 | 1 | N/A | N/A |
| $495.00 | $86.50 | $90.80 | $88.65 | 0 | 0 | 52.2% | 0.854 |
| $500.00 | $82.30 | $86.40 | $84.35 | 1 | 1 | 51.6% | 0.842 |
| $505.00 | $78.15 | $83.30 | $80.72 | 0 | 0 | 52.3% | 0.823 |
| $510.00 | $73.75 | $77.35 | $75.55 | 0 | 0 | 49.4% | 0.817 |
| $515.00 | $71.15 | $75.15 | $73.15 | 2 | 1 | 52.3% | 0.788 |
| $520.00 | $66.25 | $69.95 | $68.10 | 20 | 2 | 49.6% | 0.780 |
| $525.00 | $62.30 | $66.90 | $64.60 | 2 | 3 | 49.8% | 0.760 |
| $530.00 | $58.80 | $64.10 | $61.45 | 2 | 47 | 50.4% | 0.737 |
| $535.00 | $55.20 | $59.95 | $57.58 | 2 | 21 | 49.5% | 0.719 |
| $540.00 | $53.70 | $54.20 | $53.95 | 7 | 46 | 48.9% | 0.699 |
| $545.00 | $50.15 | $50.75 | $50.45 | 8 | 22 | 48.3% | 0.678 |
| $550.00 | $46.85 | $47.40 | $47.13 | 29 | 100 | 47.9% | 0.656 |
| $555.00 | $43.60 | $44.20 | $43.90 | 2 | 56 | 47.5% | 0.633 |
| $560.00 | $40.65 | $41.05 | $40.85 | 25 | 31 | 47.1% | 0.610 |
| $565.00 | $37.70 | $38.10 | $37.90 | 74 | 123 | 46.8% | 0.586 |
| $570.00 | $34.85 | $35.25 | $35.05 | 128 | 59 | 46.4% | 0.561 |
| $575.00 | $32.10 | $32.50 | $32.30 | 246 | 72 | 45.9% | 0.536 |
| $580.00 | $29.55 | $29.90 | $29.73 | 61 | 123 | 45.6% | 0.510 |
| $585.00 | $27.10 | $27.45 | $27.27 | 50 | 34 | 45.2% | 0.485 |
| $590.00 | $24.75 | $25.15 | $24.95 | 56 | 70 | 44.9% | 0.459 |
| $595.00 | $22.55 | $22.95 | $22.75 | 268 | 28 | 44.5% | 0.433 |
| $600.00 | $20.50 | $20.90 | $20.70 | 29 | 155 | 44.2% | 0.408 |
| $605.00 | $18.55 | $18.95 | $18.75 | 24 | 31 | 43.9% | 0.382 |
| $610.00 | $16.75 | $17.20 | $16.98 | 16 | 239 | 43.6% | 0.358 |
| $615.00 | $15.10 | $15.55 | $15.32 | 5 | 80 | 43.4% | 0.333 |
| $620.00 | $13.55 | $14.00 | $13.78 | 19 | 138 | 43.1% | 0.310 |
| $625.00 | $12.15 | $12.60 | $12.38 | 25 | 199 | 42.9% | 0.287 |
| $630.00 | $10.90 | $11.30 | $11.10 | 24 | 97 | 42.7% | 0.265 |
| $635.00 | $9.75 | $10.15 | $9.95 | 8 | 22 | 42.5% | 0.244 |
| $640.00 | $8.65 | $9.05 | $8.85 | 10 | 27 | 42.3% | 0.224 |
| $645.00 | $7.70 | $8.10 | $7.90 | 36 | 21 | 42.2% | 0.205 |
| $650.00 | $6.90 | $7.20 | $7.05 | 19 | 212 | 42.1% | 0.188 |
| $655.00 | $6.00 | $6.40 | $6.20 | 30 | 107 | 41.9% | 0.170 |
| $660.00 | $5.30 | $5.70 | $5.50 | 22 | 27 | 41.8% | 0.155 |
| $665.00 | $4.65 | $5.10 | $4.88 | 8 | 14 | 41.7% | 0.141 |
| $670.00 | $4.10 | $4.45 | $4.28 | 4 | 25 | 41.6% | 0.127 |
| $675.00 | $3.65 | $4.00 | $3.83 | 5 | 22 | 41.7% | 0.115 |
| $680.00 | $3.20 | $3.50 | $3.35 | 17 | 40 | 41.6% | 0.103 |
| $685.00 | $2.83 | $3.10 | $2.96 | 5 | 16 | 41.6% | 0.093 |
Puts:
| Strike | Bid | Ask | Mid | Volume | OI | IV | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $460.00 | $3.70 | $4.00 | $3.85 | 7 | 31 | N/A | N/A |
| $470.00 | $4.50 | $4.85 | $4.67 | 11 | 36 | N/A | N/A |
| $475.00 | $4.95 | $5.35 | $5.15 | 1 | 39 | N/A | N/A |
| $480.00 | $5.50 | $5.85 | $5.67 | 22 | 61 | N/A | N/A |
| $485.00 | $6.05 | $6.50 | $6.28 | 5 | 8 | N/A | N/A |
| $490.00 | $6.70 | $7.10 | $6.90 | 2 | 28 | N/A | N/A |
| $495.00 | $7.35 | $7.65 | $7.50 | 8 | 22 | 52.9% | -0.148 |
| $500.00 | $8.15 | $8.55 | $8.35 | 33 | 62 | 52.6% | -0.162 |
| $505.00 | $9.00 | $9.40 | $9.20 | 5 | 11 | 52.1% | -0.177 |
| $510.00 | $9.85 | $10.30 | $10.07 | 33 | 149 | 51.6% | -0.191 |
| $515.00 | $10.85 | $11.25 | $11.05 | 4 | 20 | 51.1% | -0.207 |
| $520.00 | $11.90 | $12.35 | $12.13 | 30 | 29 | 50.6% | -0.224 |
| $525.00 | $13.05 | $13.55 | $13.30 | 20 | 27 | 50.2% | -0.242 |
| $530.00 | $14.30 | $14.75 | $14.53 | 46 | 137 | 49.7% | -0.260 |
| $535.00 | $15.60 | $16.15 | $15.88 | 20 | 85 | 49.2% | -0.280 |
| $540.00 | $17.05 | $17.60 | $17.33 | 12 | 184 | 48.8% | -0.300 |
| $545.00 | $18.60 | $19.15 | $18.88 | 11 | 33 | 48.3% | -0.322 |
| $550.00 | $20.25 | $20.70 | $20.48 | 7 | 82 | 47.8% | -0.344 |
| $555.00 | $22.00 | $22.50 | $22.25 | 30 | 124 | 47.4% | -0.367 |
| $560.00 | $23.90 | $24.40 | $24.15 | 27 | 224 | 47.0% | -0.390 |
| $565.00 | $25.90 | $26.40 | $26.15 | 48 | 195 | 46.6% | -0.414 |
| $570.00 | $28.05 | $28.50 | $28.27 | 55 | 136 | 46.2% | -0.439 |
| $575.00 | $30.35 | $30.80 | $30.58 | 43 | 35 | 45.9% | -0.464 |
| $580.00 | $32.75 | $33.25 | $33.00 | 45 | 26 | 45.5% | -0.490 |
| $585.00 | $35.25 | $35.75 | $35.50 | 41 | 43 | 45.1% | -0.515 |
| $590.00 | $37.95 | $38.40 | $38.17 | 12 | 19 | 44.8% | -0.541 |
| $595.00 | $40.75 | $41.20 | $40.98 | 2 | 4 | 44.5% | -0.567 |
| $600.00 | $43.70 | $44.30 | $44.00 | 7 | 51 | 44.3% | -0.592 |
| $605.00 | $46.80 | $47.40 | $47.10 | 1 | 10 | 44.1% | -0.617 |
| $610.00 | $50.00 | $50.55 | $50.27 | 1 | 8 | 43.8% | -0.642 |
| $615.00 | $53.35 | $54.00 | $53.67 | 1 | 6 | 43.6% | -0.665 |
| $620.00 | $56.85 | $57.50 | $57.17 | 2 | 22 | 43.5% | -0.689 |
| $625.00 | $57.60 | $65.00 | $61.30 | 25 | 19 | 44.2% | -0.706 |
| $630.00 | $61.70 | $68.80 | $65.25 | 1 | 14 | 44.5% | -0.725 |
| $635.00 | $65.45 | $72.95 | $69.20 | 1 | 5 | 44.6% | -0.744 |
| $640.00 | $68.75 | $77.00 | $72.88 | 1 | 1 | 44.1% | -0.765 |
| $645.00 | $72.75 | $80.55 | $76.65 | 1 | 1 | 43.5% | -0.786 |
| $650.00 | $76.90 | $84.70 | $80.80 | 19 | 19 | 43.6% | -0.803 |
| $655.00 | $81.50 | $88.90 | $85.20 | 1 | 11 | 44.0% | -0.816 |
| $660.00 | $85.85 | $93.25 | $89.55 | 0 | 0 | 44.2% | -0.830 |
| $665.00 | $89.90 | $97.65 | $93.78 | 10 | 45 | 44.0% | -0.845 |
| $670.00 | $94.50 | $101.95 | $98.22 | 2 | 2 | 44.1% | -0.858 |
| $675.00 | $99.45 | $106.50 | $102.97 | 1 | 1 | 45.0% | -0.865 |
| $680.00 | $103.80 | $111.10 | $107.45 | 1 | 1 | 45.0% | -0.876 |
| $685.00 | $108.60 | $115.75 | $112.17 | 1 | 1 | 45.6% | -0.883 |
2026-05-15 (40 DTE)
Calls:
| Strike | Bid | Ask | Mid | Volume | OI | IV | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $460.00 | $118.00 | $123.10 | $120.55 | 3 | 51 | N/A | N/A |
| $465.00 | $114.00 | $118.75 | $116.38 | 30 | 31 | N/A | N/A |
| $470.00 | $109.55 | $114.60 | $112.07 | 15 | 22 | N/A | N/A |
| $475.00 | $105.10 | $110.15 | $107.63 | 2 | 6 | N/A | N/A |
| $480.00 | $100.70 | $105.45 | $103.08 | 3 | 39 | N/A | N/A |
| $485.00 | $96.95 | $100.75 | $98.85 | 1 | 0 | 51.5% | 0.866 |
| $490.00 | $93.15 | $96.20 | $94.68 | 2 | 68 | 51.3% | 0.854 |
| $495.00 | $87.85 | $92.50 | $90.17 | 2 | 2 | 50.2% | 0.844 |
| $500.00 | $85.05 | $87.25 | $86.15 | 8 | 271 | 50.0% | 0.829 |
| $505.00 | $79.60 | $83.70 | $81.65 | 1 | 24 | 48.8% | 0.819 |
| $510.00 | $77.40 | $79.20 | $78.30 | 4 | 153 | 49.6% | 0.799 |
| $515.00 | $72.85 | $75.60 | $74.22 | 7 | 34 | 48.9% | 0.784 |
| $520.00 | $69.20 | $71.45 | $70.33 | 19 | 199 | 48.4% | 0.768 |
| $525.00 | $65.50 | $67.55 | $66.53 | 8 | 247 | 47.9% | 0.751 |
| $530.00 | $62.40 | $63.50 | $62.95 | 15 | 317 | 47.7% | 0.732 |
| $535.00 | $58.20 | $60.20 | $59.20 | 29 | 161 | 47.0% | 0.714 |
| $540.00 | $55.70 | $56.05 | $55.88 | 24 | 316 | 46.9% | 0.694 |
| $545.00 | $52.15 | $52.65 | $52.40 | 1 | 240 | 46.4% | 0.674 |
| $550.00 | $49.00 | $49.30 | $49.15 | 84 | 1495 | 46.0% | 0.653 |
| $555.00 | $45.80 | $46.10 | $45.95 | 26 | 293 | 45.6% | 0.631 |
| $560.00 | $42.75 | $43.05 | $42.90 | 75 | 416 | 45.3% | 0.609 |
| $565.00 | $39.75 | $40.05 | $39.90 | 77 | 179 | 44.9% | 0.586 |
| $570.00 | $36.95 | $37.25 | $37.10 | 176 | 368 | 44.5% | 0.563 |
| $575.00 | $34.25 | $34.50 | $34.38 | 348 | 351 | 44.2% | 0.539 |
| $580.00 | $31.65 | $31.90 | $31.77 | 564 | 1457 | 43.8% | 0.515 |
| $585.00 | $29.15 | $29.40 | $29.27 | 53 | 716 | 43.5% | 0.491 |
| $590.00 | $26.80 | $27.05 | $26.93 | 82 | 840 | 43.1% | 0.466 |
| $595.00 | $24.45 | $24.85 | $24.65 | 41 | 294 | 42.7% | 0.442 |
| $600.00 | $22.50 | $22.75 | $22.63 | 1189 | 16596 | 42.5% | 0.418 |
| $605.00 | $20.55 | $20.80 | $20.68 | 126 | 1498 | 42.3% | 0.394 |
| $610.00 | $18.65 | $18.95 | $18.80 | 148 | 1624 | 42.0% | 0.370 |
| $615.00 | $16.95 | $17.20 | $17.07 | 72 | 1039 | 41.7% | 0.347 |
| $620.00 | $15.35 | $15.55 | $15.45 | 89 | 1633 | 41.4% | 0.324 |
| $625.00 | $13.85 | $14.15 | $14.00 | 114 | 740 | 41.2% | 0.302 |
| $630.00 | $12.50 | $12.75 | $12.63 | 114 | 2013 | 41.0% | 0.281 |
| $635.00 | $11.25 | $11.50 | $11.38 | 49 | 521 | 40.8% | 0.260 |
| $640.00 | $10.10 | $10.35 | $10.22 | 322 | 2663 | 40.6% | 0.240 |
| $645.00 | $9.05 | $9.30 | $9.18 | 39 | 629 | 40.5% | 0.222 |
| $650.00 | $8.10 | $8.30 | $8.20 | 535 | 5525 | 40.3% | 0.204 |
| $655.00 | $7.25 | $7.50 | $7.38 | 46 | 751 | 40.2% | 0.187 |
| $660.00 | $6.45 | $6.70 | $6.58 | 451 | 2876 | 40.1% | 0.171 |
| $665.00 | $5.75 | $5.95 | $5.85 | 97 | 1135 | 40.0% | 0.156 |
| $670.00 | $5.10 | $5.35 | $5.22 | 241 | 2680 | 39.9% | 0.143 |
| $675.00 | $4.55 | $4.75 | $4.65 | 44 | 841 | 39.9% | 0.130 |
| $680.00 | $4.05 | $4.25 | $4.15 | 132 | 9725 | 39.8% | 0.118 |
| $685.00 | $3.60 | $3.80 | $3.70 | 45 | 682 | 39.8% | 0.108 |
Puts:
| Strike | Bid | Ask | Mid | Volume | OI | IV | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $460.00 | $4.50 | $4.70 | $4.60 | 22 | 451 | N/A | N/A |
| $465.00 | $4.95 | $5.15 | $5.05 | 22 | 206 | N/A | N/A |
| $470.00 | $5.40 | $5.65 | $5.53 | 20 | 890 | N/A | N/A |
| $475.00 | $5.95 | $6.15 | $6.05 | 24 | 327 | N/A | N/A |
| $480.00 | $6.50 | $6.75 | $6.63 | 127 | 1821 | N/A | N/A |
| $485.00 | $7.15 | $7.40 | $7.28 | 22 | 701 | 51.9% | -0.135 |
| $490.00 | $7.85 | $8.00 | $7.92 | 80 | 1608 | 51.3% | -0.146 |
| $495.00 | $8.55 | $8.85 | $8.70 | 22 | 366 | 50.8% | -0.159 |
| $500.00 | $9.40 | $9.65 | $9.53 | 353 | 2876 | 50.4% | -0.172 |
| $505.00 | $10.25 | $10.55 | $10.40 | 34 | 339 | 49.9% | -0.186 |
| $510.00 | $11.20 | $11.50 | $11.35 | 325 | 3037 | 49.4% | -0.200 |
| $515.00 | $12.25 | $12.50 | $12.38 | 59 | 346 | 48.9% | -0.216 |
| $520.00 | $13.35 | $13.65 | $13.50 | 225 | 3689 | 48.5% | -0.232 |
| $525.00 | $14.55 | $14.85 | $14.70 | 54 | 833 | 48.1% | -0.249 |
| $530.00 | $15.80 | $16.10 | $15.95 | 118 | 2194 | 47.6% | -0.267 |
| $535.00 | $17.15 | $17.50 | $17.32 | 50 | 440 | 47.1% | -0.286 |
| $540.00 | $18.65 | $19.00 | $18.82 | 169 | 1672 | 46.7% | -0.306 |
| $545.00 | $20.25 | $20.55 | $20.40 | 45 | 687 | 46.3% | -0.326 |
| $550.00 | $21.90 | $22.25 | $22.07 | 133 | 3283 | 45.9% | -0.347 |
| $555.00 | $23.70 | $24.05 | $23.88 | 56 | 628 | 45.5% | -0.369 |
| $560.00 | $25.60 | $25.95 | $25.77 | 169 | 1571 | 45.2% | -0.391 |
| $565.00 | $27.65 | $28.00 | $27.82 | 116 | 600 | 44.8% | -0.414 |
| $570.00 | $29.80 | $30.15 | $29.98 | 190 | 2818 | 44.5% | -0.437 |
| $575.00 | $32.10 | $32.45 | $32.28 | 62 | 560 | 44.2% | -0.461 |
| $580.00 | $34.50 | $34.85 | $34.67 | 90 | 2482 | 43.8% | -0.485 |
| $585.00 | $37.00 | $37.45 | $37.23 | 19 | 737 | 43.6% | -0.509 |
| $590.00 | $39.65 | $40.00 | $39.83 | 54 | 1723 | 43.2% | -0.533 |
| $595.00 | $42.45 | $42.90 | $42.67 | 32 | 1271 | 43.0% | -0.557 |
| $600.00 | $45.35 | $45.70 | $45.53 | 97 | 14385 | 42.7% | -0.582 |
| $605.00 | $48.40 | $48.80 | $48.60 | 6 | 325 | 42.5% | -0.605 |
| $610.00 | $51.55 | $51.95 | $51.75 | 54 | 1804 | 42.2% | -0.629 |
| $615.00 | $54.85 | $55.35 | $55.10 | 2 | 796 | 42.1% | -0.651 |
| $620.00 | $58.25 | $58.65 | $58.45 | 17 | 1899 | 41.8% | -0.674 |
| $625.00 | $61.15 | $63.45 | $62.30 | 1 | 304 | 42.1% | -0.693 |
| $630.00 | $64.25 | $68.50 | $66.38 | 3 | 1590 | 42.6% | -0.710 |
| $635.00 | $68.25 | $72.25 | $70.25 | 7 | 307 | 42.7% | -0.728 |
| $640.00 | $71.65 | $76.00 | $73.83 | 21 | 1688 | 42.2% | -0.750 |
| $645.00 | $75.85 | $80.20 | $78.03 | 6 | 310 | 42.6% | -0.765 |
| $650.00 | $80.55 | $83.55 | $82.05 | 6 | 2717 | 42.6% | -0.782 |
| $655.00 | $83.95 | $88.35 | $86.15 | 2 | 345 | 42.5% | -0.798 |
| $660.00 | $87.05 | $92.80 | $89.92 | 2 | 1440 | 41.7% | -0.818 |
| $665.00 | $92.25 | $96.90 | $94.58 | 2 | 183 | 42.5% | -0.827 |
| $670.00 | $96.70 | $101.20 | $98.95 | 137 | 1129 | 42.6% | -0.839 |
| $675.00 | $101.50 | $106.00 | $103.75 | 1 | 127 | 43.6% | -0.846 |
| $680.00 | $106.85 | $109.40 | $108.13 | 5 | 881 | 43.5% | -0.858 |
| $685.00 | $110.00 | $116.00 | $113.00 | 1 | 83 | 44.6% | -0.863 |
Options data may be delayed. AI analyses can be inaccurate. This is not financial advice.
Options Chain: LLY
Underlying Price: $935.57
Data Source: Brokerage
2026-05-08 (33 DTE)
Calls:
| Strike | Bid | Ask | Mid | Volume | OI | IV | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $750.00 | $190.65 | $198.00 | $194.32 | 0 | 0 | N/A | N/A |
| $760.00 | $181.50 | $189.70 | $185.60 | 0 | 0 | N/A | N/A |
| $770.00 | $172.40 | $180.65 | $176.53 | 0 | 0 | N/A | N/A |
| $780.00 | $163.35 | $171.75 | $167.55 | 0 | 0 | N/A | N/A |
| $790.00 | $154.75 | $161.30 | $158.03 | 0 | 0 | N/A | N/A |
| $800.00 | $146.15 | $152.65 | $149.40 | 0 | 0 | 52.9% | 0.862 |
| $810.00 | $137.40 | $145.00 | $141.20 | 0 | 0 | 52.8% | 0.844 |
| $820.00 | $129.85 | $136.65 | $133.25 | 0 | 0 | 52.7% | 0.825 |
| $825.00 | $126.05 | $132.20 | $129.13 | 0 | 0 | 52.4% | 0.816 |
| $830.00 | $120.55 | $129.90 | $125.22 | 0 | 0 | 52.3% | 0.806 |
| $835.00 | $117.00 | $124.00 | $120.50 | 0 | 0 | 51.0% | 0.800 |
| $840.00 | $114.00 | $119.90 | $116.95 | 4 | 2 | 51.3% | 0.788 |
| $845.00 | $109.55 | $117.65 | $113.60 | 2 | 1 | 51.6% | 0.776 |
| $850.00 | $105.40 | $111.35 | $108.38 | 4 | 1 | 49.7% | 0.771 |
| $855.00 | $101.85 | $108.50 | $105.17 | 2 | 1 | 50.2% | 0.757 |
| $860.00 | $98.15 | $104.85 | $101.50 | 0 | 0 | 50.0% | 0.745 |
| $865.00 | $94.40 | $103.00 | $98.70 | 0 | 0 | 50.6% | 0.731 |
| $870.00 | $92.05 | $99.00 | $95.53 | 1 | 1 | 50.8% | 0.718 |
| $875.00 | $87.20 | $94.45 | $90.83 | 2 | 1 | 49.3% | 0.709 |
| $880.00 | $84.00 | $91.35 | $87.67 | 0 | 0 | 49.4% | 0.695 |
| $885.00 | $82.25 | $86.95 | $84.60 | 2 | 0 | 49.5% | 0.681 |
| $890.00 | $78.65 | $86.00 | $82.33 | 2 | 3 | 50.3% | 0.666 |
| $895.00 | $75.60 | $80.35 | $77.97 | 2 | 1 | 49.0% | 0.655 |
| $900.00 | $73.35 | $77.20 | $75.28 | 1 | 13 | 49.2% | 0.640 |
| $905.00 | $69.45 | $74.10 | $71.78 | 2 | 1 | 48.7% | 0.627 |
| $910.00 | $66.40 | $72.20 | $69.30 | 4 | 4 | 49.0% | 0.612 |
| $915.00 | $63.40 | $69.80 | $66.60 | 2 | 2 | 49.0% | 0.598 |
| $920.00 | $60.65 | $67.00 | $63.83 | 1 | 0 | 48.9% | 0.583 |
| $925.00 | $57.80 | $63.80 | $60.80 | 2 | 3 | 48.5% | 0.569 |
| $930.00 | $55.45 | $59.45 | $57.45 | 1 | 1 | 47.7% | 0.554 |
| $935.00 | $52.60 | $57.25 | $54.92 | 11 | 1 | 47.6% | 0.539 |
| $940.00 | $51.85 | $54.60 | $53.23 | 42 | 16 | 48.2% | 0.525 |
| $945.00 | $48.85 | $52.85 | $50.85 | 4 | 30 | 48.2% | 0.510 |
| $950.00 | $46.65 | $50.85 | $48.75 | 13 | 16 | 48.3% | 0.496 |
| $955.00 | $43.15 | $49.55 | $46.35 | 2 | 3 | 48.0% | 0.481 |
| $960.00 | $41.15 | $46.70 | $43.92 | 35 | 13 | 47.7% | 0.466 |
| $965.00 | $39.85 | $43.90 | $41.88 | 4 | 1 | 47.7% | 0.451 |
| $970.00 | $36.75 | $41.85 | $39.30 | 10 | 17 | 47.1% | 0.436 |
| $975.00 | $34.55 | $40.10 | $37.33 | 2 | 6 | 47.0% | 0.421 |
| $980.00 | $32.90 | $38.00 | $35.45 | 4 | 9 | 46.9% | 0.407 |
| $985.00 | $31.55 | $35.85 | $33.70 | 1 | 0 | 46.9% | 0.392 |
| $990.00 | $29.65 | $35.00 | $32.33 | 14 | 18 | 47.2% | 0.380 |
| $995.00 | $27.95 | $31.35 | $29.65 | 3 | 0 | 46.2% | 0.362 |
| $1000.00 | $26.40 | $31.60 | $29.00 | 1 |
Message shortened in this preview.
User
Launching 3 subagents to explore strategies in parallel
User
Waiting for subagents to complete...
User
Waiting for subagents to complete...
Aurora
All 3 subagents complete.
Subagent 1: Explore income-generating premium strategies for Monday's open given the VIX at 23.8. Test put credit spreads and iron condors on SPY and QQQ (30-45 DTE). Use exactly $25,000 starting capital. Backtest across 2022, 2023, and 2024.
- Status: completed
- Summary:
Income-Generating Premium Strategy Analysis: VIX 23.8 Regime
Designed and tested 12 premium-generating portfolios for SPY and QQQ to capitalize on elevated volatility (VIX > 20) for a $25,000 account. The exploration spanned three iterations (v1-v3) across the 2022 bear market, 2023 recovery, and 2024 bull market.
Approach
Tested two primary structures: Put Credit Spreads (bullish/income) and Iron Condors (neutral/income). Strategies used 30-45 DTE options with a 50% Take Profit and 100% Stop Loss (2x premium) rule. Iterations focused on refining strike selection from fixed offsets to explicit delta ranges (-0.18 to -0.22) to ensure execution.
Key Discoveries
Execution Failure: Despite three iterations, all 36 backtest configurations produced 0 trades. The combination of the VIX > 20 filter and specific delta/DTE requirements was too restrictive for the simulation's liquidity mapping.
The Reality Check (Historical Research): SQL-based research into 20-delta options revealed a structurally disadvantaged environment. In 2022, 20-delta Puts were breached 55-66% of the time. In 2023, 20-delta Calls were breached 62-72% of the time.
Mathematical Expectancy: With a ~60% breach rate, the proposed 50% TP / 100% SL strategy has a negative expectancy of -0.40R. This means the strategy is mathematically expected to lose $0.40 for every $1.00 of premium targeted because the stop-loss is triggered significantly more often than the profit target.
Next Steps
- Trend Filtering: Add a mandatory trend filter (e.g., Price > 200-day SMA) to avoid selling puts in primary downtrends.
- Dynamic Delta: Lower the short-leg target to 10-15 delta when VIX > 23 to increase the margin of safety.
- Execution Optimization: Loosen the backtest parameters to a wider delta range (e.g., 10-30) to validate the risk/reward rules before live deployment.
Subagent 2: Explore directional growth strategies for Monday's open using COP and AMD. Test long calls and bull call spreads (30-45 DTE). Use exactly $25,000 starting capital. Backtest across 2022 (bear), 2023 (recovery), and 2024 (trend) to find the most robust configuration.
- Status: completed
- Summary:
AMD/COP Directional Options Strategy Analysis: 10 Iterations Complete
Designed and tested directional growth strategies for AMD and COP using a $25,000 capital constraint across three distinct market regimes: 2022 (Bear), 2023 (Recovery), and 2024 (Trend).
Approach
Tested four competing hypotheses: naked ATM calls, naked OTM calls, bull call spreads, and a regime-adaptive switching model. Research confirmed that high IV in AMD (>40%) and COP (>30%) makes naked calls extremely expensive, requiring a premium-offsetting strategy.
Key Discoveries
What Worked: The 'AMD/COP Regime-Adaptive Options' portfolio was the clear winner. By using the SPY 200-day SMA and VIX (>25) as filters, it switched to Bull Call Spreads during high-volatility/bear regimes and OTM Long Calls during bull regimes. It achieved a +31.22% return in 2022 (outperforming SPY by 49%) while maintaining a professional -17.37% max drawdown.
What Failed: Naked long calls (ATM and OTM) were catastrophic for a $25k account, suffering 75% to 97% drawdowns. The high cost of 30-45 DTE premiums created a 'breakeven hurdle' that the underlying stocks could not overcome, even in bullish years like 2024.
Regime Performance: Spreads were essential for capital preservation in 2022. OTM calls provided the best recovery leverage in 2023 (+22.7%). However, all options strategies lagged SPY in 2024 due to theta decay in a low-volatility 'slow grind' market.
Top Performers
- AMD/COP Regime-Adaptive Options - Best overall risk-adjusted returns and drawdown control.
- AMD/COP Bull Call Spread - Best standalone defensive performance (+1.22% in 2022).
Next Steps
Optimize the 'Aggressive' leg of the Regime-Adaptive strategy by testing 60-90 DTE options to reduce theta decay during trending markets like 2024. The strategy is currently ready for paper-trading deployment.
Subagent 3: Explore mean-reversion strategies for Monday's open focusing on LLY (RSI 39.8) and META (pullback). Test long calls and bull call spreads (30-45 DTE) triggered by oversold conditions. Use exactly $25,000 starting capital. Backtest across 2022, 2023, and 2024.
- Status: completed
- Summary:
Monday Mean-Reversion Analysis: LLY & META
This investigation tested the viability of buying the Monday morning dip in high-beta stocks using options. We compared unhedged long calls against bull call spreads across three distinct market regimes (2022–2024) with a $25,000 capital limit.
Key Findings
Structure is Strategy: For high-priced stocks like LLY ($700+), bull call spreads are mandatory. Unhedged long calls suffered from 'IV Crush' and theta decay, losing value even when the stock recovered. The LLY Bull Call Spread was the only strategy to consistently deliver positive risk-adjusted returns (Sortino 1.10 in 2023).
The RSI Threshold: Research proved that RSI < 30 is a far more reliable trigger than RSI < 40, increasing the win rate for LLY to 75%. However, even with this edge, the strategies are highly aggressive, with drawdowns exceeding 40%.
The Trend Filter Paradox: Adding a 200-day SMA filter was counter-productive. Mean reversion thrives on extreme sentiment; the filter removed the most profitable trades that occur when a stock is 'broken' but ready to bounce.
Recommendation
The LLY Bull Call Spread is promising but requires strict risk management. I recommend reducing position sizing to 10% of the account to withstand the inherent volatility of pharmaceutical options.
User
On the existing chat portfolio with chatPortfolioId '69d33922401165fca51ca69a' (AMD/COP Regime-Adaptive Options), add ONE new LaunchAgent strategy alongside the existing mechanical rules. The LaunchAgent is a REVIEW/REPORT agent, not a trading agent. Use this description string: "LaunchAgent: Review this portfolio's open positions. Check SPY vs its 200-day SMA, aggregate portfolio drawdown, and individual position P&L. If conditions suggest defensive action or a regime flip, propose specific closes for user approval. Otherwise, report status. when CurrentDayOfWeek = Constant 1 or CrossBelow(indicators: [Price(SPY), SimpleMovingAverage(SPY, 200)])"
Aurora
Added 1 strategy to "AMD/COP Regime-Adaptive Options": Launch AI Agent: "Review this portfolio's open positions. Check SPY vs its 200-day SMA, aggregate portfolio drawdown, and individual position P&L. If conditions suggest defensive action or a regime flip, propose specific closes for user approval. Otherwise, report status." when Days Since Agent ≥ Constant 1 and Day = Constant 1 or SPY last price crosses below 200 Day SPY SMA = Constant 1
Deployed "AMD/COP Regime-Adaptive Options" — now active and evaluating strategies.
User
The AMD/COP Regime-Adaptive Options strategy has been selected as the champion for your $25,000 Public Portfolio. It is now paper-deployed with an automated LaunchAgent monitor attached. While this strategy offers the most robust path to growth among the tested candidates, there is a significant gap between its historical performance and your goal of doubling the account this year.
Backtest Performance Across Regimes
| Regime | Market Condition | Strategy Return | SPY Return | Alpha / (Beta) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Bear Market | +31.22% | -18.38% | +49.60 pp |
| 2023 | Recovery | +15.41% | +26.19% | (-10.78 pp) |
| 2024 | Trending Bull | +0.34% | +25.34% | (-25.00 pp) |
Average Return: +15.66%
Worst Regime: +0.34% (2024)
Current Status: ELIGIBLE / ACTIVE
Goal Feasibility — The Reality Check
Your goal is to double your $25,000 account (100% annual return). The evidence from the champion strategy supports an average annual return of +15.66%, which is roughly one-sixth of your stated goal.
While the strategy is exceptionally resilient — outperforming the market by nearly 50% during the 2022 crash — it does not provide the 100% growth you are targeting. To achieve your goal, you would need to increase risk levels significantly (e.g., higher delta or larger position sizing), which our tests showed led to near-total account wipeouts (-97%) in bear regimes.
I recommend three options:
- Accept the realistic return: Target a ~15-20% return with the current professional-grade risk management.
- Iterate for higher growth: We can test more aggressive sector-specific LEAPS, but expect much higher drawdowns.
- Extend the horizon: At a 15% average return, doubling the account takes approximately 5 years, not 1.
Current-Regime Eligibility: ACTIVE (Defensive Mode)
The strategy is ELIGIBLE and will be ready to execute on Monday at open.
- Trigger: The strategy enters Defensive Mode (Bull Call Spreads) when
SPY < 200-day SMAorVIX > 25. - Current State: SPY is at $655.83, which is below its 200-day SMA of $662.58.
- Monday Action: The portfolio will attempt to open Bull Call Spreads on AMD and COP. This structure is designed to offset high implied volatility costs while providing a buffer against further downward market drift.
Portfolio Monitor (LaunchAgent)
An automated review/reporting agent is now attached to your Public Portfolio.
- Trigger: It fires every Monday morning and whenever SPY crosses below its 200-day SMA.
- Task: It reviews your open positions, checks aggregate drawdown, and analyzes individual position P&L.
- Function: If conditions suggest the market has turned or a position is failing, it will propose specific defensive closes for your approval. It does not trade autonomously; it acts as a watchdog to ensure you are alerted to regime flips.
Deployment Status
The portfolio is deployed as paper-trading in your account (ID: 69d33ae5...). You can monitor the performance of the regime-switching logic and the LaunchAgent proposals starting this Monday. Once you are comfortable with the feasibility gap and the strategy's behavior, you can promote it to live trading manually.
Aurora
The AMD/COP Regime-Adaptive Options strategy has been selected as the champion for your $25,000 Public Portfolio. It is now paper-deployed with an automated LaunchAgent monitor attached. While this strategy offers the most robust path to growth among the tested candidates, there is a significant gap between its historical performance and your goal of doubling the account this year.
Backtest Performance Across Regimes
| Regime | Market Condition | Strategy Return | SPY Return | Alpha / (Beta) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Bear Market | +31.22% | -18.38% | +49.60 pp |
| 2023 | Recovery | +15.41% | +26.19% | (-10.78 pp) |
| 2024 | Trending Bull | +0.34% | +25.34% | (-25.00 pp) |
Average Return: +15.66%
Worst Regime: +0.34% (2024)
Current Status: ELIGIBLE / ACTIVE
Goal Feasibility — The Reality Check
Your goal is to double your $25,000 account (100% annual return). The evidence from the champion strategy supports an average annual return of +15.66%, which is roughly one-sixth of your stated goal.
While the strategy is exceptionally resilient — outperforming the market by nearly 50% during the 2022 crash — it does not provide the 100% growth you are targeting. To achieve your goal, you would need to increase risk levels significantly (e.g., higher delta or larger position sizing), which our tests showed led to near-total account wipeouts (-97%) in bear regimes.
I recommend three options:
- Accept the realistic return: Target a ~15-20% return with the current professional-grade risk management.
- Iterate for higher growth: We can test more aggressive sector-specific LEAPS, but expect much higher drawdowns.
- Extend the horizon: At a 15% average return, doubling the account takes approximately 5 years, not 1.
Current-Regime Eligibility: ACTIVE (Defensive Mode)
The strategy is ELIGIBLE and will be ready to execute on Monday at open.
- Trigger: The strategy enters Defensive Mode (Bull Call Spreads) when
SPY < 200-day SMAorVIX > 25. - Current State: SPY is at $655.83, which is below its 200-day SMA of $662.58.
- Monday Action: The portfolio will attempt to open Bull Call Spreads on AMD and COP. This structure is designed to offset high implied volatility costs while providing a buffer against further downward market drift.
Portfolio Monitor (LaunchAgent)
An automated review/reporting agent is now attached to your Public Portfolio.
- Trigger: It fires every Monday morning and whenever SPY crosses below its 200-day SMA.
- Task: It reviews your open positions, checks aggregate drawdown, and analyzes individual position P&L.
- Function: If conditions suggest the market has turned or a position is failing, it will propose specific defensive closes for your approval. It does not trade autonomously; it acts as a watchdog to ensure you are alerted to regime flips.
Deployment Status
The portfolio is deployed as paper-trading in your account (ID: 69d33ae5...). You can monitor the performance of the regime-switching logic and the LaunchAgent proposals starting this Monday. Once you are comfortable with the feasibility gap and the strategy's behavior, you can promote it to live trading manually.
Portfolios Created (6):
- AMD/COP Regime-Adaptive Options (top-performer): Best risk-adjusted performer (+31% in 2022) by switching to spreads during high volatility and long calls during trends.
Strategies: Open vertical (long call $0.5 OTM 30-45 DTE · short call $0.2 OTM 30-45 DTE), 10% of buying power on AMD (2 legs) when SPY last price < 200 Day SPY SMA or Index (VIX) > Constant 25 and Open option spread count (AMD) < Constant 1, Open vertical (long call $0.5 OTM 30-45 DTE · short call $0.2 OTM 30-45 DTE), 10% of buying power on COP (2 legs) when SPY last price < 200 Day SPY SMA or Index (VIX) > Constant 25 and Open option spread count (COP) < Constant 1, Open long call $0.4 OTM 30-45 DTE (10% of buying power) on AMD (1 leg) when SPY last price ≥ 200 Day SPY SMA and Index (VIX) ≤ Constant 25 and Open option spread count (AMD) < Constant 1, Open long call $0.4 OTM 30-45 DTE (10% of buying power) on COP (1 leg) when SPY last price ≥ 200 Day SPY SMA and Index (VIX) ≤ Constant 25 and Open option spread count (COP) < Constant 1, Close options on AMD,COP (P/L >= 50%, DTE <= 7) always, Launch AI Agent: "Review this portfolio's open positions..." when Days Since Agent ≥ Constant 1 and Day = Constant 1 or SPY last price crosses below 200 Day SPY SMA = Constant 1 - LLY Mean Reversion - Bull Call Spread (promising): Strong recovery potential (+30% in 2023) but carries high drawdown risk (-43%) during sustained bear markets.
Strategies: Open vertical (long call ATM 30-45 DTE · short call 5% OTM 30-45 DTE), 40% of portfolio on LLY (2 legs) when 14 Day LLY RSI < Constant 30 and Day = Constant 1 and Open option spread count (LLY) < Constant 1, Close options on LLY (P/L >= 50%, P/L <= -25%) always - AMD/COP Bull Call Spread (promising): Excellent capital preservation in 2022 (+1.22%) but capped upside in bull markets due to the short leg.
Strategies: Open vertical (long call $0.5 OTM 30-45 DTE · short call $0.2 OTM 30-45 DTE), 10% of buying power on AMD (2 legs), Open vertical (long call $0.5 OTM 30-45 DTE · short call $0.2 OTM 30-45 DTE), 10% of buying power on COP (2 legs), Close options on AMD/COP (P/L >= 50%, DTE <= 7) - QQQ Iron Condor (v3) (failed): Negative expectancy (-0.40R) discovered via historical research; 20-delta options are breached too frequently in high VIX regimes.
Strategies: Open iron condor (short put $0.2 OTM 30-45 DTE · long put $0.1 OTM 30-45 DTE · short call $0.2 OTM 30-45 DTE · long call $0.1 OTM 30-45 DTE), 10% of buying power on QQQ (4 legs) when Index (VIX) > Constant 20, Close options on QQQ (P/L >= 50%, P/L <= -100%) always - AMD/COP Long Call ATM (failed): Catastrophic drawdowns (>93%) due to high ATM premiums and theta decay; unviable for a $25k account.
Strategies: Open long call $0.5 OTM 30-45 DTE (10% of buying power) on AMD, Open long call $0.5 OTM 30-45 DTE (10% of buying power) on COP - META Mean Reversion - Long Call (failed): Extreme ruin risk (-97% drawdown) despite massive recovery potential; unhedged calls are too fragile for this account size.
Strategies: Open long call ATM 30-45 DTE (40% of portfolio) on META when RSI < 30
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