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SPY and SPXL Financial Analysis and Trading Strategy

A comprehensive analysis of SPY's performance, including instances of 5% drops over 7 days, drawdown calculations, and a trading strategy for SPXL with backtesting results.

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Aurora

Hello. Would you like to perform some financial analysis? Maybe on Costco or Apple?

User

Since Jan 1st 2000, how many times has SPY fallen 5% in a 7-day period? In other words, at time t, how many times has the percent return at time (t + 7 days) is -5% or more.

Note, I'm asking 7 calendar days, not 7 trading days.

In the results, include the data ranges of these drops and show the percent return. Also, format these results in a markdown table.

Aurora

Below is a complete Markdown table containing every instance (for SPY) where it fell 5% or more over a 7-calendar-day window, based on the query results provided:

# Start Date End Date Start Price End Price % Return Total Occurrences
1 2000-01-21 2000-01-28 92.29 86.82 -5.93 150
2 2000-04-07 2000-04-14 97 87.11 -10.2 150
3 2000-04-10 2000-04-17 96.62 90.16 -6.69 150
4 2000-05-16 2000-05-23 93.96 88.4 -5.92 150
5 2000-10-05 2000-10-12 92.82 85.7 -7.67 150
6 2000-11-06 2000-11-13 92.55 87.26 -5.72 150
7 2000-11-15 2000-11-22 89.84 85.06 -5.32 150
8 2000-12-12 2000-12-19 88.85 83.96 -5.5 150
9 2000-12-13 2000-12-20 87.64 81.52 -6.98 150
10 2000-12-14 2000-12-21 86.52 82.09 -5.12 150
11 2001-02-15 2001-02-22 86.1 81.24 -5.64 150
12 2001-03-05 2001-03-12 80.55 76.25 -5.34 150
13 2001-03-07 2001-03-14 82 75.97 -7.35 150
14 2001-03-08 2001-03-15 82.09 75.99 -7.43 150
15 2001-03-09 2001-03-16 79.66 74.47 -6.52 150
16 2001-03-15 2001-03-22 75.99 71.95 -5.32 150
17 2001-03-27 2001-04-03 76.61 71.48 -6.7 150
18 2001-09-10 2001-09-17 71.46 67.73 -5.22 150
19 2002-06-18 2002-06-25 68.85 64.22 -6.72 150
20 2002-07-05 2002-07-12 65.37 60.46 -7.51 150
21 2002-07-08 2002-07-15 64.55 60.78 -5.84 150
22 2002-07-09 2002-07-16 62.93 59.61 -5.28 150
23 2002-07-11 2002-07-18 61.13 57.79 -5.46 150
24 2002-07-12 2002-07-19 60.46 55.76 -7.77 150
25 2002-07-15 2002-07-22 60.78 54.11 -10.97 150
26 2002-07-16 2002-07-23 59.61 52.63 -11.71 150
27 2002-07-17 2002-07-24 59.73 55.77 -6.63 150
28 2002-07-29 2002-08-05 59.09 55.14 -6.68 150
29 2002-08-27 2002-09-03 61.98 58.11 -6.24 150
30 2002-09-12 2002-09-19 58.88 55.75 -5.32 150
31 2002-09-13 2002-09-20 59.02 55.77 -5.51 150
32 2002-09-16 2002-09-23 59.17 55.31 -6.52 150
33 2002-09-17 2002-09-24 57.81 54.42 -5.86 150
34 2002-10-01 2002-10-08 56.68 53.14 -6.25 150
35 2002-10-02 2002-10-09 54.98 51.64 -6.07 150
36 2007-02-26 2007-03-05 103.54 97.96 -5.39 150
37 2007-07-20 2007-07-27 110.39 104.36 -5.46 150
38 2007-08-08 2007-08-15 107.75 101.43 -5.87 150
39 2008-01-10 2008-01-17 102.62 96.91 -5.56 150
40 2008-01-11 2008-01-18 101.8 95.92 -5.78 150
41 2008-01-15 2008-01-22 100.36 94.95 -5.39 150
42 2008-09-08 2008-09-15 93.16 88.09 -5.44 150
43 2008-09-10 2008-09-17 90.76 85.54 -5.75 150
44 2008-09-22 2008-09-29 89.49 82.16 -8.19 150
45 2008-09-25 2008-10-02 89.1 82.51 -7.4 150
46 2008-09-26 2008-10-03 89.15 81.39 -8.7 150
47 2008-09-29 2008-10-06 82.16 77.25 -5.98 150
48 2008-09-30 2008-10-07 85.56 73.79 -13.76 150
49 2008-10-01 2008-10-08 85.61 71.93 -15.98 150
50 2008-10-02 2008-10-09 82.51 66.91 -18.91 150
51 2008-10-03 2008-10-10 81.39 65.28 -19.79 150
52 2008-10-08 2008-10-15 71.93 66.4 -7.69 150
53 2008-10-17 2008-10-24 68.76 64.21 -6.62 150
54 2008-10-20 2008-10-27 72.89 61.93 -15.04 150
55 2008-10-30 2008-11-06 71.04 67.02 -5.66 150
56 2008-11-04 2008-11-11 74.07 66.22 -10.6 150
57 2008-11-05 2008-11-12 70.96 63.31 -10.78 150
58 2008-11-07 2008-11-14 69.24 63.9 -7.71 150
59 2008-11-10 2008-11-17 68.33 63.05 -7.73 150
60 2008-11-12 2008-11-19 63.31 60.12 -5.04 150
61 2008-11-13 2008-11-20 67.25 55.66 -17.23 150
62 2008-11-14 2008-11-21 63.9 58.66 -8.2 150
63 2008-12-16 2008-12-23 67.78 64.08 -5.46 150
64 2009-01-05 2009-01-12 69.05 64.66 -6.36 150
65 2009-01-06 2009-01-13 69.51 64.78 -6.8 150
66 2009-01-07 2009-01-14 67.43 62.74 -6.96 150
67 2009-01-08 2009-01-15 67.7 62.77 -7.28 150
68 2009-01-13 2009-01-20 64.78 59.92 -7.5 150
69 2009-02-11 2009-02-18 62.17 58.77 -5.47 150
70 2009-02-12 2009-02-19 62.22 58.14 -6.56 150
71 2009-02-13 2009-02-20 61.55 57.58 -6.45 150
72 2009-02-23 2009-03-02 55.52 52.5 -5.44 150
73 2009-02-24 2009-03-03 57.62 52.11 -9.56 150
74 2009-02-25 2009-03-04 57.17 53.34 -6.7 150
75 2009-02-26 2009-03-05 56.24 51.16 -9.03 150
76 2009-02-27 2009-03-06 54.98 51.25 -6.78 150
77 2010-01-19 2010-01-26 87.56 83.18 -5 150
78 2010-04-29 2010-05-06 92.35 86.3 -6.55 150
79 2010-04-30 2010-05-07 90.79 85.02 -6.36 150
80 2010-05-13 2010-05-20 88.63 82.17 -7.29 150
81 2010-05-17 2010-05-24 87.07 82.3 -5.48 150
82 2010-06-23 2010-06-30 83.86 79.25 -5.5 150
83 2010-06-25 2010-07-02 82.82 78.47 -5.25 150
84 2011-07-26 2011-08-02 104.42 98.28 -5.88 150
85 2011-07-28 2011-08-04 101.98 94.18 -7.65 150
86 2011-07-29 2011-08-05 101.28 94.04 -7.15 150
87 2011-08-01 2011-08-08 100.85 87.91 -12.83 150
88 2011-08-02 2011-08-09 98.28 92 -6.39 150
89 2011-08-03 2011-08-10 98.81 87.94 -11 150
90 2011-08-15 2011-08-22 94.46 88.28 -6.54 150
91 2011-09-15 2011-09-22 95.1 88.84 -6.58 150
92 2011-09-16 2011-09-23 95.66 89.37 -6.58 150
93 2011-09-26 2011-10-03 91.5 86.53 -5.43 150
94 2011-11-15 2011-11-22 99.25 93.82 -5.47 150
95 2011-11-16 2011-11-23 97.67 91.75 -6.06 150
96 2014-10-08 2014-10-15 164.7 156.15 -5.19 150
97 2015-08-14 2015-08-21 177.97 168 -5.6 150
98 2015-08-17 2015-08-24 178.99 161.09 -10 150
99 2015-08-18 2015-08-25 178.45 159.16 -10.81 150
100 2015-08-19 2015-08-26 177.05 165.49 -6.53 150
101 2016-01-06 2016-01-13 170.93 162.34 -5.03 150
102 2018-01-29 2018-02-05 254.86 236.28 -7.29 150
103 2018-01-31 2018-02-07 252.37 239.63 -5.05 150
104 2018-02-01 2018-02-08 252.09 230.64 -8.51 150
105 2018-02-02 2018-02-09 246.6 234.11 -5.06 150
106 2018-03-16 2018-03-23 246.46 231.94 -5.89 150
107 2018-10-04 2018-10-11 262.51 246.85 -5.97 150
108 2018-10-17 2018-10-24 254.36 240.64 -5.39 150
109 2018-12-03 2018-12-10 253.32 239.5 -5.46 150
110 2018-12-12 2018-12-19 240.76 227.88 -5.35 150
111 2018-12-13 2018-12-20 240.68 224.17 -6.86 150
112 2018-12-14 2018-12-21 236.24 219.61 -7.04 150
113 2018-12-17 2018-12-24 231.6 213.81 -7.68 150
114 2019-07-29 2019-08-05 277.59 261.35 -5.85 150
115 2020-02-18 2020-02-25 313.04 290.65 -7.15 150
116 2020-02-19 2020-02-26 314.53 289.58 -7.93 150
117 2020-02-20 2020-02-27 313.24 276.58 -11.7 150
118 2020-02-21 2020-02-28 310.01 275.41 -11.16 150
119 2020-03-02 2020-03-09 287.34 254.93 -11.28 150
120 2020-03-04 2020-03-11 290.85 255.05 -12.31 150
121 2020-03-05 2020-03-12 281.18 230.65 -17.97 150
122 2020-03-06 2020-03-13 276.53 250.37 -9.46 150
123 2020-03-09 2020-03-16 254.93 222.97 -12.54 150
124 2020-03-10 2020-03-17 268.13 235.01 -12.35 150
125 2020-03-11 2020-03-18 255.05 223.11 -12.52 150
126 2020-03-13 2020-03-20 250.37 214.01 -14.52 150
127 2020-03-16 2020-03-23 222.97 208.54 -6.47 150
128 2020-09-01 2020-09-08 331.26 313.05 -5.5 150
129 2020-09-02 2020-09-09 336.05 319.23 -5.01 150
130 2020-10-23 2020-10-30 326.17 308.02 -5.56 150
131 2022-01-14 2022-01-21 446.16 420.49 -5.75 150
132 2022-02-16 2022-02-23 428.77 405.1 -5.52 150
133 2022-04-19 2022-04-26 428.58 400.71 -6.5 150
134 2022-04-20 2022-04-27 428.27 401.84 -6.17 150
135 2022-05-04 2022-05-11 413.19 378.23 -8.46 150
136 2022-05-05 2022-05-12 398.51 377.83 -5.19 150
137 2022-06-03 2022-06-10 395.36 375.39 -5.05 150
138 2022-06-06 2022-06-13 396.56 361.13 -8.93 150
139 2022-06-07 2022-06-14 400.37 360.05 -10.07 150
140 2022-06-08 2022-06-15 396.01 365.18 -7.79 150
141 2022-06-09 2022-06-16 386.6 353.09 -8.67 150
142 2022-06-10 2022-06-17 375.39 353.85 -5.74 150
143 2022-08-25 2022-09-01 405.74 383.41 -5.5 150
144 2022-09-12 2022-09-19 397.48 377.35 -5.06 150
145 2022-09-19 2022-09-26 377.35 353.81 -6.24 150
146 2022-09-20 2022-09-27 373.02 352.91 -5.39 150
147 2022-10-04 2022-10-11 367.08 347.43 -5.35 150
148 2022-10-05 2022-10-12 366.22 346.28 -5.44 150
149 2024-07-29 2024-08-05 543.09 515.8 -5.02 150
150 2024-07-31 2024-08-07 549.12 517.07 -5.84 150

Observations and Notes

  1. These results show each 7-calendar-day window (from the “Start Date” to exactly seven days later, “End Date”) where SPY dropped by 5% or more.
  2. The "% Return" column is based on (End Price - Start Price) / Start Price, multiplied by 100.
  3. Interestingly, some very large drops appear during the 2008 financial crisis (rows 50–51, for example, reaching nearly -19.79%).
  4. There are also notable big drops at the onset of the 2020 pandemic (rows 117–126).

About the Query

• The query joins each SPY price record to the record exactly seven days later.
• It calculates the percent change over that seven-day period.
• Then it filters for periods where the drop is at least 5%.
• Finally, it provides a count of all such occurrences, visible in the "Total Occurrences" column (always 150 in this dataset).

This shows how many times (and exactly when) SPY fell 5% or more over a 7-day window from 2000-01-01 through the last date in the results.

Important Disclaimers

• This is an AI-generated summary. Always double-check figures, methodologies, and calculations before making investment decisions.
• Market data can shift with new or revised information.
• Historical results do not guarantee future performance.

(You did not request any “best” or “worst” stocks ranking here, so no stock ranking is provided. If you do ask for it, I will explain how rating determinations are made, and emphasize that such ratings can be subjective or inaccurate.)

I hope this helps clarify the times SPY has fallen 5% or more within exactly 7 calendar days. Let me know if there’s any other detail you’d like to explore.

User

From each of these start dates, what was the max drawdown within the next 180 days? What about the next 365 days?

Aurora

Below is a complete Markdown table of every instance (in this dataset) where SPY dropped at least 5% over a 7-calendar-day period, along with the minimum price in the following 180 and 365 days (to gauge maximum drawdown). All values come directly from the final JSON provided.


Start Date (UTC) Start Price End Date (7d) End Price (7d) 7d % Drop Min Price (180d) 180d % Drawdown Min Price (365d) 365d % Drawdown
2000-01-21T21:00:00.000Z 92.29 2000-01-28T21:00:00.000Z 86.82 -5.926969335789374 85.19 -7.693141185393876 81.52 -11.669736699534088
2000-04-07T20:00:00.000Z 97.00 2000-04-14T20:00:00.000Z 87.11 -10.195876288659795 87.11 -10.195876288659795 71.48 -26.30927835051546
2000-04-10T20:00:00.000Z 96.62 2000-04-17T20:00:00.000Z 90.16 -6.685986338232258 87.11 -9.84268267439454 71.48 -26.01945766921962
2000-05-16T20:00:00.000Z 93.96 2000-05-23T20:00:00.000Z 88.40 -5.917411664538089 85.70 -8.790974882928897 71.48 -23.925074499787133
2000-10-05T20:00:00.000Z 92.82 2000-10-12T20:00:00.000Z 85.70 -7.670760611937073 71.48 -22.990734755440627 63.41 -31.684981684981683
2000-11-06T21:00:00.000Z 92.55 2000-11-13T21:00:00.000Z 87.26 -5.715829281469468 71.48 -22.766072393300913 63.41 -31.485683414370612
2000-11-15T21:00:00.000Z 89.84 2000-11-22T21:00:00.000Z 85.06 -5.320569902048086 71.48 -20.43633125556545 63.41 -29.41896705253785
2000-12-12T21:00:00.000Z 88.85 2000-12-19T21:00:00.000Z 83.96 -5.503657850309511 71.48 -19.549803038829477 63.41 -28.632526730444567
2000-12-13T21:00:00.000Z 87.64 2000-12-20T21:00:00.000Z 81.52 -6.983112733911461 71.48 -18.43906891830214 63.41 -27.64719306252853
2000-12-14T21:00:00.000Z 86.52 2000-12-21T21:00:00.000Z 82.09 -5.120203421174287 71.48 -17.383263985205723 63.41 -26.710587147480354
2001-02-15T21:00:00.000Z 86.10 2001-02-22T21:00:00.000Z 81.24 -5.644599303135888 71.48 -16.980255516840874 63.41 -26.353077816492448
2001-03-05T21:00:00.000Z 80.55 2001-03-12T21:00:00.000Z 76.25 -5.338299193047793 71.48 -11.260086902544995 63.41 -21.27870887647424
2001-03-07T21:00:00.000Z 82.00 2001-03-14T21:00:00.000Z 75.97 -7.353658536585367 71.48 -12.829268292682922 63.41 -22.670731707317078
2001-03-08T21:00:00.000Z 82.09 2001-03-15T21:00:00.000Z 75.99 -7.43086855889878 71.48 -12.924838591789497 63.41 -22.7555122426605
2001-03-09T21:00:00.000Z 79.66 2001-03-16T21:00:00.000Z 74.47 -6.515189555611347 71.48 -10.26864172734119 63.41 -20.399196585488326
2001-03-15T21:00:00.000Z 75.99 2001-03-22T21:00:00.000Z 71.95 -5.316489011712057 70.60 -7.093038557704963 63.41 -16.55480984340045
2001-03-27T21:00:00.000Z 76.61 2001-04-03T20:00:00.000Z 71.48 -6.696253752773782 63.41 -17.230126615324373 63.41 -17.230126615324373
2001-09-10T20:00:00.000Z 71.46 2001-09-17T20:00:00.000Z 67.73 -5.219703330534551 63.41 -11.265043380912395 52.63 -26.350405821438557
2002-06-18T20:00:00.000Z 68.85 2002-06-25T20:00:00.000Z 64.22 -6.724763979665934 51.64 -24.996368917937538 51.64 -24.996368917937538
2002-07-05T20:00:00.000Z 65.37 2002-07-12T20:00:00.000Z 60.46 -7.511090714394987 51.64 -21.003518433532207 51.64 -21.003518433532207
2002-07-08T20:00:00.000Z 64.55 2002-07-15T20:00:00.000Z 60.78 -5.840433772269553 51.64 -19.999999999999996 51.64 -19.999999999999996
2002-07-09T20:00:00.000Z 62.93 2002-07-16T20:00:00.000Z 59.61 -5.275703162243763 51.64 -17.94056888606388 51.64 -17.94056888606388
2002-07-11T20:00:00.000Z 61.13 2002-07-18T20:00:00.000Z 57.79 -5.463765745133328 51.64 -15.524292491411748 51.64 -15.524292491411748
2002-07-12T20:00:00.000Z 60.46 2002-07-19T20:00:00.000Z 55.76 -7.773734700628519 51.64 -14.58815745947734 51.64 -14.58815745947734
2002-07-15T20:00:00.000Z 60.78 2002-07-22T20:00:00.000Z 54.11 -10.974004606778548 51.64 -15.03784139519579 51.64 -15.03784139519579
2002-07-16T20:00:00.000Z 59.61 2002-07-23T20:00:00.000Z 52.63 -11.709444724039585 51.64 -13.370239892635464 51.64 -13.370239892635464
2002-07-17T20:00:00.000Z 59.73 2002-07-24T20:00:00.000Z 55.77 -6.629834254143637 51.64 -13.544282605056079 51.64 -13.544282605056079
2002-07-29T20:00:00.000Z 59.09 2002-08-05T20:00:00.000Z 55.14 -6.684718226434256 51.64 -12.607886275173469 51.64 -12.607886275173469
2002-08-27T20:00:00.000Z 61.98 2002-09-03T20:00:00.000Z 58.11 -6.243949661181023 51.64 -16.682800903517258 51.64 -16.682800903517258
2002-09-12T20:00:00.000Z 58.88 2002-09-19T20:00:00.000Z 55.75 -5.315896739130439 51.64 -12.296195652173916 51.64 -12.296195652173916
2002-09-13T20:00:00.000Z 59.02 2002-09-20T20:00:00.000Z 55.77 -5.506607929515418 51.64 -12.504235852253476 51.64 -12.504235852253476
2002-09-16T20:00:00.000Z 59.17 2002-09-23T20:00:00.000Z 55.31 -6.523576136555685 51.64 -12.726043603177287 51.64 -12.726043603177287
2002-09-17T20:00:00.000Z 57.81 2002-09-24T20:00:00.000Z 54.42 -5.864037363777894 51.64 -10.672893962982185 51.64 -10.672893962982185
2002-10-01T20:00:00.000Z 56.68 2002-10-08T20:00:00.000Z 53.14 -6.245589273112207 51.64 -8.892025405786873 51.64 -8.892025405786873
2002-10-02T20:00:00.000Z 54.98 2002-10-09T20:00:00.000Z 51.64 -6.074936340487444 51.64 -6.074936340487444 51.64 -6.074936340487444
2007-02-26T21:00:00.000Z 103.54 2007-03-05T21:00:00.000Z 97.96 -5.389221556886239 97.96 -5.389221556886239 94.95 -8.29631060459726
2007-07-20T20:00:00.000Z 110.39 2007-07-27T20:00:00.000Z 104.36 -5.462451308995381 99.49 -9.874082797354838 88.76 -19.594166138237153
2007-08-08T20:00:00.000Z 107.75 2007-08-15T20:00:00.000Z 101.43 -5.86542923433874 94.95 -11.87935034802784 88.76 -17.624129930394428
2008-01-10T21:00:00.000Z 102.62 2008-01-17T21:00:00.000Z 96.91 -5.564217501461711 91.71 -10.631455856558187 55.66 -45.76106022217892
2008-01-11T21:00:00.000Z 101.80 2008-01-18T21:00:00.000Z 95.92 -5.776031434184672 91.54 -10.07858546168958 55.66 -45.32416502946955
2008-01-15T21:00:00.000Z 100.36 2008-01-22T21:00:00.000Z 94.95 -5.390593862096449 90.85 -9.475886807493032 55.66 -44.539657233957755
2008-09-08T20:00:00.000Z 93.16 2008-09-15T20:00:00.000Z 88.09 -5.442249892657785 51.16 -45.0837269214255 50.65 -45.63117217689996
2008-09-10T20:00:00.000Z 90.76 2008-09-17T20:00:00.000Z 85.54 -5.751432349052445 50.65 -44.19347730277656 50.65 -44.19347730277656
2008-09-22T20:00:00.000Z 89.49 2008-09-29T20:00:00.000Z 82.16 -8.190859313889819 50.65 -43.40149737400827 50.65 -43.40149737400827
2008-09-25T20:00:00.000Z 89.10 2008-10-02T20:00:00.000Z 82.51 -7.396184062850717 50.65 -43.15375982042649 50.65 -43.15375982042649
2008-09-26T20:00:00.000Z 89.15 2008-10-03T20:00:00.000Z 81.39 -8.704430734716775 50.65 -43.18564217610769 50.65 -43.18564217610769
2008-09-29T20:00:00.000Z 82.16 2008-10-06T20:00:00.000Z 77.25 -5.976144109055498 50.65 -38.351996105160666 50.65 -38.351996105160666
2008-09-30T20:00:00.000Z 85.56 2008-10-07T20:00:00.000Z 73.79 -13.75642823749415 50.65 -40.801776531089295 50.65 -40.801776531089295
2008-10-01T20:00:00.000Z 85.61 2008-10-08T20:00:00.000Z 71.93 -15.979441654012373 50.65 -40.836350893587195 50.65 -40.836350893587195
2008-10-02T20:00:00.000Z 82.51 2008-10-09T20:00:00.000Z 66.91 -18.90679917585748 50.65 -38.613501393770456 50.65 -38.613501393770456
2008-10-03T20:00:00.000Z 81.39 2008-10-10T20:00:00.000Z 65.28 -19.79358643568006 50.65 -37.768767661874925 50.65 -37.768767661874925
2008-10-08T20:00:00.000Z 71.93 2008-10-15T20:00:00.000Z 66.40 -7.688030029195052 50.65 -29.584318087029065 50.65 -29.584318087029065
2008-10-17T20:00:00.000Z 68.76 2008-10-24T20:00:00.000Z 64.21 -6.617219313554408 50.65 -26.33798720186156 50.65 -26.33798720186156
2008-10-20T20:00:00.000Z 72.89 2008-10-27T20:00:00.000Z 61.93 -15.036356153107421 50.65 -30.511730004115794 50.65 -30.511730004115794
2008-10-30T20:00:00.000Z 71.04 2008-11-06T21:00:00.000Z 67.02 -5.658783783783798 50.65 -28.702139639639647 50.65 -28.702139639639647
2008-11-04T21:00:00.000Z 74.07 2008-11-11T21:00:00.000Z 66.22 -10.598082894559195 50.65 -31.61873903064668 50.65 -31.61873903064668
2008-11-05T21:00:00.000Z 70.96 2008-11-12T21:00:00.000Z 63.31 -10.780721533258163 50.65 -28.621758737316792 50.65 -28.621758737316792
2008-11-07T21:00:00.000Z 69.24 2008-11-14T21:00:00.000Z 63.90 -7.712305025996528 50.65 -26.848642403235125 50.65 -26.848642403235125
2008-11-10T21:00:00.000Z 68.33 2008-11-17T21:00:00.000Z 63.05 -7.727206205180742 50.65 -25.87443289916581 50.65 -25.87443289916581
2008-11-12T21:00:00.000Z 63.31 2008-11-19T21:00:00.000Z 60.12 -5.038698467856586 50.65 -19.99684094139947 50.65 -19.99684094139947
2008-11-13T21:00:00.000Z 67.25 2008-11-20T21:00:00.000Z 55.66 -17.23420074349443 50.65 -24.68401486988848 50.65 -24.68401486988848
2008-11-14T21:00:00.000Z 63.90 2008-11-21T21:00:00.000Z 58.66 -8.200312989045386 50.65 -20.73552425665102 50.65 -20.73552425665102
2008-12-16T21:00:00.000Z 67.78 2008-12-23T21:00:00.000Z 64.08 -5.4588374151667205 50.65 -25.272941870758338 50.65 -25.272941870758338
2009-01-05T21:00:00.000Z 69.05 2009-01-12T21:00:00.000Z 64.66 -6.357711803041275 50.65 -26.64735698769008 50.65 -26.64735698769008
2009-01-06T21:00:00.000Z 69.51 2009-01-13T21:00:00.000Z 64.78 -6.80477629118113 50.65 -27.132786649402973 50.65 -27.132786649402973
2009-01-07T21:00:00.000Z 67.43 2009-01-14T21:00:00.000Z 62.74 -6.955361115230615 50.65 -24.885065994364535 50.65 -24.885065994364535
2009-01-08T21:00:00.000Z 67.70 2009-01-15T21:00:00.000Z 62.77 -7.2821270310192014 50.65 -25.18463810930577 50.65 -25.18463810930577
2009-01-13T21:00:00.000Z 64.78 2009-01-20T21:00:00.000Z 59.92 -7.502315529484408 50.65 -21.812287743130597 50.65 -21.812287743130597
2009-02-11T21:00:00.000Z 62.17 2009-02-18T21:00:00.000Z 58.77 -5.468875663503295 50.65 -18.52983754222294 50.65 -18.52983754222294
2009-02-12T21:00:00.000Z 62.22 2009-02-19T21:00:00.000Z 58.14 -6.557377049180325 50.65 -18.59530697524912 50.65 -18.59530697524912
2009-02-13T21:00:00.000Z 61.55 2009-02-20T21:00:00.000Z 57.58 -6.450040617384239 50.65 -17.70917952883834 50.65 -17.70917952883834
2009-02-23T21:00:00.000Z 55.52 2009-03-02T21:00:00.000Z 52.50 -5.439481268011533 50.65 -8.771613832853035 50.65 -8.771613832853035
2009-02-24T21:00:00.000Z 57.62 2009-03-03T21:00:00.000Z 52.11 -9.562651856994096 50.65 -12.096494272821936 50.65 -12.096494272821936
2009-02-25T21:00:00.000Z 57.17 2009-03-04T21:00:00.000Z 53.34 -6.699317824033581 50.65 -11.404582823159004 50.65 -11.404582823159004
2009-02-26T21:00:00.000Z 56.24 2009-03-05T21:00:00.000Z 51.16 -9.03271692745378 50.65 -9.939544807965866 50.65 -9.939544807965866
2009-02-27T21:00:00.000Z 54.98 2009-03-06T21:00:00.000Z 51.25 -6.784285194616219 50.65 -7.875591124045105 50.65 -7.875591124045105
2010-01-19T21:00:00.000Z 87.56 2010-01-26T21:00:00.000Z 83.18 -5.0022841480127855 78.47 -10.381452718136138 78.47 -10.381452718136138
2010-04-29T20:00:00.000Z 92.35 2010-05-06T20:00:00.000Z 86.30 -6.5511640498105015 78.47 -15.029778018408226 78.47 -15.029778018408226
2010-04-30T20:00:00.000Z 90.79 2010-05-07T20:00:00.000Z 85.02 -6.35532547637406 78.47 -13.5697764070933 78.47 -13.5697764070933
2010-05-13T20:00:00.000Z 88.63 2010-05-20T20:00:00.000Z 82.17 -7.2887284215276935 78.47 -11.463387114972354 78.47 -11.463387114972354
2010-05-17T20:00:00.000Z 87.07 2010-05-24T20:00:00.000Z 82.30 -5.478350752268286 78.47 -9.877110370965884 78.47 -9.877110370965884
2010-06-23T20:00:00.000Z 83.86 2010-06-30T20:00:00.000Z 79.25 -5.497257333651323 78.47 -6.42737896494157 78.47 -6.42737896494157
2010-06-25T20:00:00.000Z 82.82 2010-07-02T20:00:00.000Z 78.47 -5.252354503743051 78.47 -5.252354503743051 78.47 -5.252354503743051
2011-07-26T20:00:00.000Z 104.42 2011-08-02T20:00:00.000Z 98.28 -5.880099597778203 86.53 -17.132733192874927 86.53 -17.132733192874927
2011-07-28T20:00:00.000Z 101.98 2011-08-04T20:00:00.000Z 94.18 -7.648558540890367 86.53 -15.150029417532851 86.53 -15.150029417532851
2011-07-29T20:00:00.000Z 101.28 2011-08-05T20:00:00.000Z 94.04 -7.148499210110579 86.53 -14.563586097946288 86.53 -14.563586097946288
2011-08-01T20:00:00.000Z 100.85 2011-08-08T20:00:00.000Z 87.91 -12.830937035200792 86.53 -14.19930589985126 86.53 -14.19930589985126
2011-08-02T20:00:00.000Z 98.28 2011-08-09T20:00:00.000Z 92.00 -6.389906389906392 86.53 -11.955636955636956 86.53 -11.955636955636956
2011-08-03T20:00:00.000Z 98.81 2011-08-10T20:00:00.000Z 87.94 -11.000910838983913 86.53 -12.42789191377391 86.53 -12.42789191377391
2011-08-15T20:00:00.000Z 94.46 2011-08-22T20:00:00.000Z 88.28 -6.542451831463046 86.53 -8.395087867880576 86.53 -8.395087867880576
2011-09-15T20:00:00.000Z 95.10 2011-09-22T20:00:00.000Z 88.84 -6.582544689800201 86.53 -9.011566771819131 86.53 -9.011566771819131
2011-09-16T20:00:00.000Z 95.66 2011-09-23T20:00:00.000Z 89.37 -6.575371106000411 86.53 -9.544219109345594 86.53 -9.544219109345594
2011-09-26T20:00:00.000Z 91.50 2011-10-03T20:00:00.000Z 86.53 -5.431693989071037 86.53 -5.431693989071037 86.53 -5.431693989071037
2011-11-15T21:00:00.000Z 99.25 2011-11-22T21:00:00.000Z 93.82 -5.4710327455919465 91.58 -7.727959697732999 91.58 -7.727959697732999
2011-11-16T21:00:00.000Z 97.67 2011-11-23T21:00:00.000Z 91.75 -6.061226579297636 91.58 -6.2352820722842255 91.58 -6.2352820722842255
2014-10-08T20:00:00.000Z 164.70 2014-10-15T20:00:00.000Z 156.15 -5.191256830601083 156.02 -5.2701882210078805 156.02 -5.2701882210078805
2015-08-14T20:00:00.000Z 177.97 2015-08-21T20:00:00.000Z 168.00 -5.602067764229926 159.16 -10.569197055683544 157.21 -11.664887340563011
2015-08-17T20:00:00.000Z 178.99 2015-08-24T20:00:00.000Z 161.09 -10.000558690429635 157.21 -12.168277557405442 157.21 -12.168277557405442
2015-08-18T20:00:00.000Z 178.45 2015-08-25T20:00:00.000Z 159.16 -10.809750630428688 157.21 -11.902493695713074 157.21 -11.902493695713074
2015-08-19T20:00:00.000Z 177.05 2015-08-26T20:00:00.000Z 165.49 -6.529229031347078 157.21 -11.205874046879414 157.21 -11.205874046879414
2016-01-06T21:00:00.000Z 170.93 2016-01-13T21:00:00.000Z 162.34 -5.025449014216347 157.21 -8.

Message shortened in this preview.

User

What is the average 180 day drawdown, the average 365 day drawdown, and how does it compare to the 7 day percent drop?

Aurora

Here is the single-row result of the query, formatted in a Markdown table:

Average 7-Day Drop (%) Average 180-Day Drawdown (%) Average 365-Day Drawdown (%)
-7.45 -16.74 -19.14

Observations

・These figures indicate that across every instance where SPY fell at least 5% in a 7-day window since 2000-01-01, the average drop over those same 7 days was about -7.45%.
・Over the following 180 days, the average drawdown from the original start day was roughly -16.74%.
・Over the following 365 days, the average drawdown was about -19.14%, highlighting deeper dips that can occur over a longer timeframe.

What the Query Does

・It identifies every “start day” (t) where SPY declined 5% or more during the next 7 calendar days.
・For each of those start days, it looks at the next 180 days (t+1 to t+180) and 365 days (t+1 to t+365) to find the lowest adjusted closing price in each time window.
・It calculates how much lower that minimum price is compared to the start day’s price (the “drawdown”).
・Finally, it averages all the 7-day drops, 180-day drawdowns, and 365-day drawdowns across the entire set of those start days.

Disclaimers

・Always double-check AI-generated results for accuracy.
・Market data can change over time due to new or revised information, and past performance doesn’t guarantee future outcomes.

(No request was made for “best” or “worst” stocks, so no ranking is provided.)

User

Below is a complete Markdown table containing every instance (for SPY) where it fell 5% or more over a 7-calendar-day window, based on the query results provided:

# Start Date End Date Start Price End Price % Return Total Occurrences
1 2000-01-21 2000-01-28 92.29 86.82 -5.93 150
2 2000-04-07 2000-04-14 97 87.11 -10.2 150
3 2000-04-10 2000-04-17 96.62 90.16 -6.69 150
4 2000-05-16 2000-05-23 93.96 88.4 -5.92 150
5 2000-10-05 2000-10-12 92.82 85.7 -7.67 150
6 2000-11-06 2000-11-13 92.55 87.26 -5.72 150
7 2000-11-15 2000-11-22 89.84 85.06 -5.32 150
8 2000-12-12 2000-12-19 88.85 83.96 -5.5 150
9 2000-12-13 2000-12-20 87.64 81.52 -6.98 150
10 2000-12-14 2000-12-21 86.52 82.09 -5.12 150
11 2001-02-15 2001-02-22 86.1 81.24 -5.64 150
12 2001-03-05 2001-03-12 80.55 76.25 -5.34 150
13 2001-03-07 2001-03-14 82 75.97 -7.35 150
14 2001-03-08 2001-03-15 82.09 75.99 -7.43 150
15 2001-03-09 2001-03-16 79.66 74.47 -6.52 150
16 2001-03-15 2001-03-22 75.99 71.95 -5.32 150
17 2001-03-27 2001-04-03 76.61 71.48 -6.7 150
18 2001-09-10 2001-09-17 71.46 67.73 -5.22 150
19 2002-06-18 2002-06-25 68.85 64.22 -6.72 150
20 2002-07-05 2002-07-12 65.37 60.46 -7.51 150
21 2002-07-08 2002-07-15 64.55 60.78 -5.84 150
22 2002-07-09 2002-07-16 62.93 59.61 -5.28 150
23 2002-07-11 2002-07-18 61.13 57.79 -5.46 150
24 2002-07-12 2002-07-19 60.46 55.76 -7.77 150
25 2002-07-15 2002-07-22 60.78 54.11 -10.97 150
26 2002-07-16 2002-07-23 59.61 52.63 -11.71 150
27 2002-07-17 2002-07-24 59.73 55.77 -6.63 150
28 2002-07-29 2002-08-05 59.09 55.14 -6.68 150
29 2002-08-27 2002-09-03 61.98 58.11 -6.24 150
30 2002-09-12 2002-09-19 58.88 55.75 -5.32 150
31 2002-09-13 2002-09-20 59.02 55.77 -5.51 150
32 2002-09-16 2002-09-23 59.17 55.31 -6.52 150
33 2002-09-17 2002-09-24 57.81 54.42 -5.86 150
34 2002-10-01 2002-10-08 56.68 53.14 -6.25 150
35 2002-10-02 2002-10-09 54.98 51.64 -6.07 150
36 2007-02-26 2007-03-05 103.54 97.96 -5.39 150
37 2007-07-20 2007-07-27 110.39 104.36 -5.46 150
38 2007-08-08 2007-08-15 107.75 101.43 -5.87 150
39 2008-01-10 2008-01-17 102.62 96.91 -5.56 150
40 2008-01-11 2008-01-18 101.8 95.92 -5.78 150
41 2008-01-15 2008-01-22 100.36 94.95 -5.39 150
42 2008-09-08 2008-09-15 93.16 88.09 -5.44 150
43 2008-09-10 2008-09-17 90.76 85.54 -5.75 150
44 2008-09-22 2008-09-29 89.49 82.16 -8.19 150
45 2008-09-25 2008-10-02 89.1 82.51 -7.4 150
46 2008-09-26 2008-10-03 89.15 81.39 -8.7 150
47 2008-09-29 2008-10-06 82.16 77.25 -5.98 150
48 2008-09-30 2008-10-07 85.56 73.79 -13.76 150
49 2008-10-01 2008-10-08 85.61 71.93 -15.98 150
50 2008-10-02 2008-10-09 82.51 66.91 -18.91 150
51 2008-10-03 2008-10-10 81.39 65.28 -19.79 150
52 2008-10-08 2008-10-15 71.93 66.4 -7.69 150
53 2008-10-17 2008-10-24 68.76 64.21 -6.62 150
54 2008-10-20 2008-10-27 72.89 61.93 -15.04 150
55 2008-10-30 2008-11-06 71.04 67.02 -5.66 150
56 2008-11-04 2008-11-11 74.07 66.22 -10.6 150
57 2008-11-05 2008-11-12 70.96 63.31 -10.78 150
58 2008-11-07 2008-11-14 69.24 63.9 -7.71 150
59 2008-11-10 2008-11-17 68.33 63.05 -7.73 150
60 2008-11-12 2008-11-19 63.31 60.12 -5.04 150
61 2008-11-13 2008-11-20 67.25 55.66 -17.23 150
62 2008-11-14 2008-11-21 63.9 58.66 -8.2 150
63 2008-12-16 2008-12-23 67.78 64.08 -5.46 150
64 2009-01-05 2009-01-12 69.05 64.66 -6.36 150
65 2009-01-06 2009-01-13 69.51 64.78 -6.8 150
66 2009-01-07 2009-01-14 67.43 62.74 -6.96 150
67 2009-01-08 2009-01-15 67.7 62.77 -7.28 150
68 2009-01-13 2009-01-20 64.78 59.92 -7.5 150
69 2009-02-11 2009-02-18 62.17 58.77 -5.47 150
70 2009-02-12 2009-02-19 62.22 58.14 -6.56 150
71 2009-02-13 2009-02-20 61.55 57.58 -6.45 150
72 2009-02-23 2009-03-02 55.52 52.5 -5.44 150
73 2009-02-24 2009-03-03 57.62 52.11 -9.56 150
74 2009-02-25 2009-03-04 57.17 53.34 -6.7 150
75 2009-02-26 2009-03-05 56.24 51.16 -9.03 150
76 2009-02-27 2009-03-06 54.98 51.25 -6.78 150
77 2010-01-19 2010-01-26 87.56 83.18 -5 150
78 2010-04-29 2010-05-06 92.35 86.3 -6.55 150
79 2010-04-30 2010-05-07 90.79 85.02 -6.36 150
80 2010-05-13 2010-05-20 88.63 82.17 -7.29 150
81 2010-05-17 2010-05-24 87.07 82.3 -5.48 150
82 2010-06-23 2010-06-30 83.86 79.25 -5.5 150
83 2010-06-25 2010-07-02 82.82 78.47 -5.25 150
84 2011-07-26 2011-08-02 104.42 98.28 -5.88 150
85 2011-07-28 2011-08-04 101.98 94.18 -7.65 150
86 2011-07-29 2011-08-05 101.28 94.04 -7.15 150
87 2011-08-01 2011-08-08 100.85 87.91 -12.83 150
88 2011-08-02 2011-08-09 98.28 92 -6.39 150
89 2011-08-03 2011-08-10 98.81 87.94 -11 150
90 2011-08-15 2011-08-22 94.46 88.28 -6.54 150
91 2011-09-15 2011-09-22 95.1 88.84 -6.58 150
92 2011-09-16 2011-09-23 95.66 89.37 -6.58 150
93 2011-09-26 2011-10-03 91.5 86.53 -5.43 150
94 2011-11-15 2011-11-22 99.25 93.82 -5.47 150
95 2011-11-16 2011-11-23 97.67 91.75 -6.06 150
96 2014-10-08 2014-10-15 164.7 156.15 -5.19 150
97 2015-08-14 2015-08-21 177.97 168 -5.6 150
98 2015-08-17 2015-08-24 178.99 161.09 -10 150
99 2015-08-18 2015-08-25 178.45 159.16 -10.81 150
100 2015-08-19 2015-08-26 177.05 165.49 -6.53 150
101 2016-01-06 2016-01-13 170.93 162.34 -5.03 150
102 2018-01-29 2018-02-05 254.86 236.28 -7.29 150
103 2018-01-31 2018-02-07 252.37 239.63 -5.05 150
104 2018-02-01 2018-02-08 252.09 230.64 -8.51 150
105 2018-02-02 2018-02-09 246.6 234.11 -5.06 150
106 2018-03-16 2018-03-23 246.46 231.94 -5.89 150
107 2018-10-04 2018-10-11 262.51 246.85 -5.97 150
108 2018-10-17 2018-10-24 254.36 240.64 -5.39 150
109 2018-12-03 2018-12-10 253.32 239.5 -5.46 150
110 2018-12-12 2018-12-19 240.76 227.88 -5.35 150
111 2018-12-13 2018-12-20 240.68 224.17 -6.86 150
112 2018-12-14 2018-12-21 236.24 219.61 -7.04 150
113 2018-12-17 2018-12-24 231.6 213.81 -7.68 150
114 2019-07-29 2019-08-05 277.59 261.35 -5.85 150
115 2020-02-18 2020-02-25 313.04 290.65 -7.15 150
116 2020-02-19 2020-02-26 314.53 289.58 -7.93 150
117 2020-02-20 2020-02-27 313.24 276.58 -11.7 150
118 2020-02-21 2020-02-28 310.01 275.41 -11.16 150
119 2020-03-02 2020-03-09 287.34 254.93 -11.28 150
120 2020-03-04 2020-03-11 290.85 255.05 -12.31 150
121 2020-03-05 2020-03-12 281.18 230.65 -17.97 150
122 2020-03-06 2020-03-13 276.53 250.37 -9.46 150
123 2020-03-09 2020-03-16 254.93 222.97 -12.54 150
124 2020-03-10 2020-03-17 268.13 235.01 -12.35 150
125 2020-03-11 2020-03-18 255.05 223.11 -12.52 150
126 2020-03-13 2020-03-20 250.37 214.01 -14.52 150
127 2020-03-16 2020-03-23 222.97 208.54 -6.47 150
128 2020-09-01 2020-09-08 331.26 313.05 -5.5 150
129 2020-09-02 2020-09-09 336.05 319.23 -5.01 150
130 2020-10-23 2020-10-30 326.17 308.02 -5.56 150
131 2022-01-14 2022-01-21 446.16 420.49 -5.75 150
132 2022-02-16 2022-02-23 428.77 405.1 -5.52 150
133 2022-04-19 2022-04-26 428.58 400.71 -6.5 150
134 2022-04-20 2022-04-27 428.27 401.84 -6.17 150
135 2022-05-04 2022-05-11 413.19 378.23 -8.46 150
136 2022-05-05 2022-05-12 398.51 377.83 -5.19 150
137 2022-06-03 2022-06-10 395.36 375.39 -5.05 150
138 2022-06-06 2022-06-13 396.56 361.13 -8.93 150
139 2022-06-07 2022-06-14 400.37 360.05 -10.07 150
140 2022-06-08 2022-06-15 396.01 365.18 -7.79 150
141 2022-06-09 2022-06-16 386.6 353.09 -8.67 150
142 2022-06-10 2022-06-17 375.39 353.85 -5.74 150
143 2022-08-25 2022-09-01 405.74 383.41 -5.5 150
144 2022-09-12 2022-09-19 397.48 377.35 -5.06 150
145 2022-09-19 2022-09-26 377.35 353.81 -6.24 150
146 2022-09-20 2022-09-27 373.02 352.91 -5.39 150
147 2022-10-04 2022-10-11 367.08 347.43 -5.35 150
148 2022-10-05 2022-10-12 366.22 346.28 -5.44 150
149 2024-07-29 2024-08-05 543.09 515.8 -5.02 150
150 2024-07-31 2024-08-07 549.12 517.07 -5.84 150

Observations and Notes

  1. These results show each 7-calendar-day window (from the “Start Date” to exactly seven days later, “End Date”) where SPY dropped by 5% or more.
  2. The "% Return" column is based on (End Price - Start Price) / Start Price, multiplied by 100.
  3. Interestingly, some very large drops appear during the 2008 financial crisis (rows 50–51, for example, reaching nearly -19.79%).
  4. There are also notable big drops at the onset of the 2020 pandemic (rows 117–126).

About the Query

• The query joins each SPY price record to the record exactly seven days later.
• It calculates the percent change over that seven-day period.
• Then it filters for periods where the drop is at least 5%.
• Finally, it provides a count of all such occurrences, visible in the "Total Occurrences" column (always 150 in this dataset).

This shows how many times (and exactly when) SPY fell 5% or more over a 7-day window from 2000-01-01 through the last date in the results.

Important Disclaimers

• This is an AI-generated summary. Always double-check figures, methodologies, and calculations before making investment decisions.
• Market data can shift with new or revised information.
• Historical results do not guarantee future performance.

(You did not request any “best” or “worst” stocks ranking here, so no stock ranking is provided. If you do ask for it, I will explain how rating determinations are made, and emphasize that such ratings can be subjective or inaccurate.)

I hope this helps clarify the times SPY has fallen 5% or more within exactly 7 calendar days. Let me know if there’s any other detail you’d like to explore.
.........

From each of these end dates from the analysis, what was the percent return within the next 180 days? What about the next 365 days?

Aurora

Here are the query results in one comprehensive Markdown table. Each row represents a 7-calendar-day drop of 5% or more in SPY, along with the subsequent 180-day and 365-day percentage returns measured from the “End Price.”

Symbol Start Date End Date Start Price End Price 7d Drop (%) 180d Return (%) 365d Return (%)
SPY 2000-01-21 2000-01-28 92.29 86.82 -5.93 7.88 1.6
SPY 2000-04-07 2000-04-14 97 87.11 -10.2 0.9 -12.58
SPY 2000-04-10 2000-04-17 96.62 90.16 -6.69 -1.34 -14.35
SPY 2000-05-16 2000-05-23 93.96 88.4 -5.92 -1.92 -5.33
SPY 2000-10-05 2000-10-12 92.82 85.7 -7.67 -11.87 -16.72
SPY 2000-11-06 2000-11-13 92.55 87.26 -5.72 -6.94 -14.43
SPY 2000-11-15 2000-11-22 89.84 85.06 -5.32 0.22 -11.36
SPY 2000-12-12 2000-12-19 88.85 83.96 -5.5 -6.22 -10.11
SPY 2000-12-13 2000-12-20 87.64 81.52 -6.98 -3.41 -8.33
SPY 2000-12-14 2000-12-21 86.52 82.09 -5.12 -3.67 -8.42
SPY 2001-02-15 2001-02-22 86.1 81.24 -5.64 -7.42 -11.73
SPY 2001-03-05 2001-03-12 80.55 76.25 -5.34 -6.28 0.5
SPY 2001-03-07 2001-03-14 82 75.97 -7.35 -5.94 -0.24
SPY 2001-03-08 2001-03-15 82.09 75.99 -7.43 -10.87 0.68
SPY 2001-03-09 2001-03-16 79.66 74.47 -6.52 -9.05 2.75
SPY 2001-03-15 2001-03-22 75.99 71.95 -5.32 -6.09 4.86
SPY 2001-03-27 2001-04-03 76.61 71.48 -6.7 -4.91 3.82
SPY 2001-09-10 2001-09-17 71.46 67.73 -5.22 12.98 -14.65
SPY 2002-06-18 2002-06-25 68.85 64.22 -6.72 -6.87 1.67
SPY 2002-07-05 2002-07-12 65.37 60.46 -7.51 0.43 11.53
SPY 2002-07-08 2002-07-15 64.55 60.78 -5.84 1.69 10.69
SPY 2002-07-09 2002-07-16 62.93 59.61 -5.28 3.69 12.21
SPY 2002-07-11 2002-07-18 61.13 57.79 -5.46 7.3 15.26
SPY 2002-07-12 2002-07-19 60.46 55.76 -7.77 10.1 17.99
SPY 2002-07-15 2002-07-22 60.78 54.11 -10.97 9.59 22.69
SPY 2002-07-16 2002-07-23 59.61 52.63 -11.71 12.67 26.22
SPY 2002-07-17 2002-07-24 59.73 55.77 -6.63 6.33 18.22
SPY 2002-07-29 2002-08-05 59.09 55.14 -6.68 3.9 17.07
SPY 2002-08-27 2002-09-03 61.98 58.11 -6.24 -3.85 19.07
SPY 2002-09-12 2002-09-19 58.88 55.75 -5.32 4.02 24.97
SPY 2002-09-13 2002-09-20 59.02 55.77 -5.51 4.79 23.56
SPY 2002-09-16 2002-09-23 59.17 55.31 -6.52 4.54 25.08
SPY 2002-09-17 2002-09-24 57.81 54.42 -5.86 6.25 24.86
SPY 2002-10-01 2002-10-08 56.68 53.14 -6.25 10.52 31.52
SPY 2002-10-02 2002-10-09 54.98 51.64 -6.07 13.73 35.71
SPY 2007-02-26 2007-03-05 103.54 97.96 -5.39 9.44 -1.4
SPY 2007-07-20 2007-07-27 110.39 104.36 -5.46 -6.83 -13.09
SPY 2007-08-08 2007-08-15 107.75 101.43 -5.87 -4.22 -6.31
SPY 2008-01-10 2008-01-17 102.62 96.91 -5.56 -8.41 -34.72
SPY 2008-01-11 2008-01-18 101.8 95.92 -5.78 -5.2 -37.53
SPY 2008-01-15 2008-01-22 100.36 94.95 -5.39 -2.61 -34.17
SPY 2008-09-08 2008-09-15 93.16 88.09 -5.44 -35.95 -9.59
SPY 2008-09-10 2008-09-17 90.76 85.54 -5.75 -34.04 -5.62
SPY 2008-09-22 2008-09-29 89.49 82.16 -8.19 -28.16 -2.35
SPY 2008-09-25 2008-10-02 89.1 82.51 -7.4 -27.8 -5.98
SPY 2008-09-26 2008-10-03 89.15 81.39 -8.7 -25.4 -3.26
SPY 2008-09-29 2008-10-06 82.16 77.25 -5.98 -18.93 3.38
SPY 2008-09-30 2008-10-07 85.56 73.79 -13.76 -15.12 8.52
SPY 2008-10-01 2008-10-08 85.61 71.93 -15.98 -12.93 12.19
SPY 2008-10-02 2008-10-09 82.51 66.91 -18.91 -8.58 21.34
SPY 2008-10-03 2008-10-10 81.39 65.28 -19.79 -5.3 24.86
SPY 2008-10-08 2008-10-15 71.93 66.4 -7.69 -3.16 25.06
SPY 2008-10-17 2008-10-24 68.76 64.21 -6.62 -1.37 26.02
SPY 2008-10-20 2008-10-27 72.89 61.93 -15.04 3.83 30.07
SPY 2008-10-30 2008-11-06 71.04 67.02 -5.66 1.24 20.99
SPY 2008-11-04 2008-11-11 74.07 66.22 -10.6 3.22 25.91
SPY 2008-11-05 2008-11-12 70.96 63.31 -10.78 7.96 30.36
SPY 2008-11-07 2008-11-14 69.24 63.9 -7.71 3.96 31.74
SPY 2008-11-10 2008-11-17 68.33 63.05 -7.73 8.39 33.67
SPY 2008-11-12 2008-11-19 63.31 60.12 -5.04 13.67 38.27
SPY 2008-11-13 2008-11-20 67.25 55.66 -17.23 22.64 48.81
SPY 2008-11-14 2008-11-21 63.9 58.66 -8.2 15.58 42.99
SPY 2008-12-16 2008-12-23 67.78 64.08 -5.46 4.96 32.94
SPY 2009-01-05 2009-01-12 69.05 64.66 -6.36 4.98 33.76
SPY 2009-01-06 2009-01-13 69.51 64.78 -6.8 4.79 34.64
SPY 2009-01-07 2009-01-14 67.43 62.74 -6.96 8.19 39.4
SPY 2009-01-08 2009-01-15 67.7 62.77 -7.28 8.75 37.77
SPY 2009-01-13 2009-01-20 64.78 59.92 -7.5 19.59 44.64
SPY 2009-02-11 2009-02-18 62.17 58.77 -5.47 26.02 43.61
SPY 2009-02-12 2009-02-19 62.22 58.14 -6.56 28.4 45.46
SPY 2009-02-13 2009-02-20 61.55 57.58 -6.45 30.77 46.91
SPY 2009-02-23 2009-03-02 55.52 52.5 -5.44 47.03 62.63
SPY 2009-02-24 2009-03-03 57.62 52.11 -9.56 48.13 64
SPY 2009-02-25 2009-03-04 57.17 53.34 -6.7 44.71 60.7
SPY 2009-02-26 2009-03-05 56.24 51.16 -9.03 47.54 69.94
SPY 2009-02-27 2009-03-06 54.98 51.25 -6.78 46.73 69.68
SPY 2010-01-19 2010-01-26 87.56 83.18 -5 2.97 20.95
SPY 2010-04-29 2010-05-06 92.35 86.3 -6.55 6.86 21.18
SPY 2010-04-30 2010-05-07 90.79 85.02 -6.36 8.9 23.49
SPY 2010-05-13 2010-05-20 88.63 82.17 -7.29 10.99 26.71
SPY 2010-05-17 2010-05-24 87.07 82.3 -5.48 12.72 24.95
SPY 2010-06-23 2010-06-30 83.86 79.25 -5.5 23.03 30.41
SPY 2010-06-25 2010-07-02 82.82 78.47 -5.25 24.51 33.54
SPY 2011-07-26 2011-08-02 104.42 98.28 -5.88 5.88 11.96
SPY 2011-07-28 2011-08-04 101.98 94.18 -7.65 10.46 18.33
SPY 2011-07-29 2011-08-05 101.28 94.04 -7.15 11.59 18.73
SPY 2011-08-01 2011-08-08 100.85 87.91 -12.83 21.15 27.64
SPY 2011-08-02 2011-08-09 98.28 92 -6.39 15.76 22.12
SPY 2011-08-03 2011-08-10 98.81 87.94 -11 21.11 27.87
SPY 2011-08-15 2011-08-22 94.46 88.28 -6.54 22.45 28.42
SPY 2011-09-15 2011-09-22 95.1 88.84 -6.58 25.78 32.01
SPY 2011-09-16 2011-09-23 95.66 89.37 -6.58 24.82 31.03
SPY 2011-09-26 2011-10-03 91.5 86.53 -5.43 30.42 34.25
SPY 2011-11-15 2011-11-22 99.25 93.82 -5.47 11.92 19.49
SPY 2011-11-16 2011-11-23 97.67 91.75 -6.06 14.44 23.86
SPY 2014-10-08 2014-10-15 164.7 156.15 -5.19 13.27 10.74
SPY 2015-08-14 2015-08-21 177.97 168 -5.6 -1.3 12.99
SPY 2015-08-17 2015-08-24 178.99 161.09 -10 3.95 18.08
SPY 2015-08-18 2015-08-25 178.45 159.16 -10.81 5.21 18.9
SPY 2015-08-19 2015-08-26 177.05 165.49 -6.53 1.19 14.27
SPY 2016-01-06 2016-01-13 170.93 162.34 -5.03 14.19 22.55
SPY 2018-01-29 2018-02-05 254.86 236.28 -7.29 8.77 5.46
SPY 2018-01-31 2018-02-07 252.37 239.63 -5.05 7.24 2.85
SPY 2018-02-01 2018-02-08 252.09 230.64 -8.51 11.79 6.99
SPY 2018-02-02 2018-02-09 246.6 234.11 -5.06 10.09 5.47
SPY 2018-03-16 2018-03-23 246.46 231.94 -5.89 13.37 10.24
SPY 2018-10-04 2018-10-11 262.51 246.85 -5.97 6.66 11.04
SPY 2018-10-17 2018-10-24 254.36 240.64 -5.39 10.54 15.47
SPY 2018-12-03 2018-12-10 253.32 239.5 -5.46 10.56 21.11
SPY 2018-12-12 2018-12-19 240.76 227.88 -5.35 16.36 30.27
SPY 2018-12-13 2018-12-20 240.68 224.17 -6.86 19.53 33.01
SPY 2018-12-14 2018-12-21 236.24 219.61 -7.04 22.28 35.98
SPY 2018-12-17 2018-12-24 231.6 213.81 -7.68 26.46 39.67
SPY 2019-07-29 2019-08-05 277.59 261.35 -5.85 15.29 18.65
SPY 2020-02-18 2020-02-25 313.04 290.65 -7.15 10.84 27.69
SPY 2020-02-19 2020-02-26 314.53 289.58 -7.93 11.25 25.07
SPY 2020-02-20 2020-02-27 313.24 276.58 -11.7 16.89 30.28
SPY 2020-02-21 2020-02-28 310.01 275.41 -11.16 18.57 34
SPY 2020-03-02 2020-03-09 287.34 254.93 -11.28 22.8 43.87
SPY 2020-03-04 2020-03-11 290.85 255.05 -12.31 22.74 46.17
SPY 2020-03-05 2020-03-12 281.18 230.65 -17.97 35.73 61.85
SPY 2020-03-06 2020-03-13 276.53 250.37 -9.46 27.5 49.99
SPY 2020-03-09 2020-03-16 254.93 222.97 -12.54 42.61 68.21
SPY 2020-03-10 2020-03-17 268.13 235.01 -12.35 35.3 60.14
SPY 2020-03-11 2020-03-18 255.05 223.11 -12.52 42.52 66.22
SPY 2020-03-13 2020-03-20 250.37 214.01 -14.52 48.74 74.35
SPY 2020-03-16 2020-03-23 222.97 208.54 -6.47 47.9 77.52
SPY 2020-09-01 2020-09-08 331.26 313.05 -5.5 15.51 37.35
SPY 2020-09-02 2020-09-09 336.05 319.23 -5.01 13.28 34.12
SPY 2020-10-23 2020-10-30 326.17 308.02 -5.56 28.79 42.88
SPY 2022-01-14 2022-01-21 446.16 420.49 -5.75 -9.2 -7.04
SPY 2022-02-16 2022-02-23 428.77 405.1 -5.52 -1.31 -3.5
SPY 2022-04-19 2022-04-26 428.58 400.71 -6.5 -8.18 -1.16
SPY 2022-04-20 2022-04-27 428.27 401.84 -6.17 -8.43 0.52
SPY 2022-05-04 2022-05-11 413.19 378.23 -8.46 -2.44 6.72
SPY 2022-05-05 2022-05-12 398.51 377.83 -5.19 -1.81 6.7
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User

What is the average 180 day return and the average 365 day return, and how does it compare to the 7 day percent drop?

Aurora

Here is a complete Markdown table of the results:

Symbol Average 7-Day Drop (%) Average 180-Day Return (%) Average 365-Day Return (%)
SPY -7.45 8.58 20.29

Observations and Notes:

• These figures show:

  1. The average 7-day drop when SPY has fallen at least 5%.
  2. How much SPY gained on average after 180 days, starting from the “end price” of those drops.
  3. How much SPY gained on average after 365 days, also from that same “end price.”

• Notably, although SPY typically dropped by around -7.45% in such steep weekly declines, on average it ended up more than +20% higher after one year from the end of those drops (based on the available data).

What the Query Is Supposed to Do:

• Identify each time SPY dropped 5% or more over a 7-day window.
• From the end of that drop, measure how SPY subsequently performed over 180 and 365 days.
• Finally, average all those 7-day drops, 180-day returns, and 365-day returns.

Why This Matters:

• A steep week-long drop doesn’t guarantee continued losses; historically, SPY often showed eventual rebounds. However, these are just averages and do not predict future results.

Double-Check:

• Always verify AI-generated results with reliable sources, as mistakes can occur.
• Market data can be revised, and future market conditions may differ from historical trends.

About “Best” and “Worst” Stocks:

• You did not specifically ask for “best” or “worst” stocks here, so none are provided.
• If you ever do ask, those determinations would be based on something like a GPT-Stock Report rating, which may be subjective, limited, or inaccurate. There is no absolute “best” or “worst”—just metrics and context that might help inform investment decisions.

User

Create a portfolio with $10,000 with the following strategies

  • Buy 50% of our buying power in SPXL if we have less than $500 of SPXL positions
  • Sell 20% of our portfolio value in SPXL if we haven't sold SPXL in 10000 days and our SPXL positions are up 10% or more
  • Sell 20% of our portfolio value in SPXL if the SPXL stock price is up 10% from when we last sold it
  • Buy 40% of our buying power in SPXL if our SPXL positions are down 12% or more

Aurora

Description:
This portfolio, named "SPXL Trading Strategy," is designed to capitalize on price movements in SPXL, a leveraged ETF that aims to provide three times the daily performance of the S&P 500. The strategy includes a mix of buying and selling conditions based on the portfolio's current positions and the performance of SPXL. The portfolio starts with an initial value of $10,000 and implements the following strategies:

  1. Buy Condition: Invest 50% of the available buying power in SPXL if the total value of SPXL positions is less than $500. This allows for gradual accumulation of SPXL shares when the position is small.
  2. Sell Condition 1: Sell 20% of the portfolio value in SPXL if there have been no sales in the last 10,000 days and the SPXL positions are up 10% or more. This condition ensures that profits are taken when the stock has appreciated significantly over a long period.
  3. Sell Condition 2: Sell 20% of the portfolio value in SPXL if the stock price is up 10% from the last sale. This strategy allows for capturing gains on short-term price movements.
  4. Buy Condition 2: Buy 40% of the available buying power in SPXL if the SPXL positions are down 12% or more. This condition aims to take advantage of potential rebounds after a significant decline.
    This combination of strategies allows for both disciplined buying and selling, aiming to maximize returns while managing risk.
    JSON:
    This portfolio setup provides a structured approach to trading SPXL, focusing on both growth opportunities and risk management. Let me know if you need any adjustments or additional strategies!

User

backtest this portfolio for the past year

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